Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop down below $4, there has been a slight recovery to above $4 - the key support level to watch is 3.965 and the key resistance is 4.174. 3.965 dropped so we could be looking at a drop to 3.445. Watching 3.965 as the key bull/bear line and we are currently below it.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-19 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a turbulent landscape, with demand weakened by a lackluster fall season. Recent storage draws, like last week's 177 Bcf, were expected but have done little to bolster prices, which recently dipped below $4 before a slight recovery. Key technical levels to monitor are 3.965 support and 4.174 resistance. With forecasts split on polar vortex activity, market sentiment remains cautious. Traders should keep an eye on inventory data and weather patterns as potential game changers in the near future.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.03
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.15
MA(20): $4.52
Current Price is 4.03, 9 day MA 4.15, 20 day MA 4.52
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0772
Signal: 0.0501
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 138,875
Avg (20d): 196,154
Ratio: 0.71
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 11.23
%D: 8.74
Stochastic %K: 11.23, %D: 8.74. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 28.51
+DI: 21.37
-DI: 25.41
ADX: 28.51 (+DI: 21.37, -DI: 25.41). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -88.77
Williams %R: -88.77 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.35
Middle: 4.52
Lower: 3.69
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.35, Middle: 4.52, Lower: 3.69
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
212.0 HDD
+13.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
160.0 HDD
-58.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/19 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/20 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/21 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/22 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/23 | 22.0 | 31.0 | -9.0 |
| 12/24 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/25 | 18.0 | 32.0 | -14.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.72
Daily:
0.29 (0.29%)
Weekly:
0.57 (0.58%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
0.03 (0.85%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.74%)
SP500
6834.5
Daily:
59.74 (0.88%)
Weekly:
17.99 (0.26%)
VIX
14.91
Daily:
-1.96 (-11.62%)
Weekly:
-1.59 (-9.64%)
GOLD
4368.7
Daily:
29.2 (0.67%)
Weekly:
62.0 (1.44%)
COPPER
5.48
Daily:
0.12 (2.18%)
Weekly:
0.14 (2.72%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,550,763
Change: +26,457
Managed Money
-31,091
Change: +8,882
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-44,462
Change: -9,509
-2.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
129,180
Change: -18,858
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-75,388
Change: +11,118
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,867,966
Change: -46,701
Managed Money
6,878
Change: +41,646
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
252,183
Change: -21,069
13.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-330,680
Change: +3,832
-17.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.441 EUR/MWh (+0.030). JKM prices increased to 9.555 USD/MMBtu (+0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.114 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.441
+0.030Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-19
JKM Prices
9.555
+0.020Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-19
JKM-TTF Spread
0.114
1.21%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.0
9.7
9.4
9.2
8.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.441 |
| FEB 26 | 9.450 |
| MAR 26 | 9.350 |
| APR 26 | 9.096 |
| MAY 26 | 8.994 |
| JUN 26 | 8.993 |
| JUL 26 | 9.018 |
| AUG 26 | 9.067 |
| SEP 26 | 9.159 |
| OCT 26 | 9.187 |
| NOV 26 | 9.350 |
| DEC 26 | 9.449 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.555 |
| MAR 26 | 9.435 |
| APR 26 | 9.085 |
| MAY 26 | 9.155 |
| JUN 26 | 9.155 |
| JUL 26 | 9.305 |
| AUG 26 | 9.450 |
| SEP 26 | 9.415 |
| OCT 26 | 9.430 |
| NOV 26 | 9.440 |
| DEC 26 | 9.800 |
| JAN 27 | 9.905 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
89
Last Updated:
2025-12-19 23:47:55
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (9 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Settle Higher on Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Risks and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Support Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Prices Climb Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains as Geopolitical Risks Mount Trading Economics
- Crude Prices Rise as Global Geopolitical Risks Escalate Barchart
- Rising Global Geopolitical Tensions Lift Crude Prices Barchart
- Oil Gains as Trump's Venezuela Blockade Raises Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.03
Closest Support:
$3.82
5.21% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
2.73% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.79
0.236
$3.43
0.382
$3.82
Support
0.5
$4.14
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.92
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.23
1.618
$7.17
2.0
$8.2
2.618
$9.88
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.91
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-19 23:47:56
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.35%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | $3.92 | $3.58 | $4.26 |
| 2025-12-20 | $3.93 | $3.59 | $4.27 |
| 2025-12-21 | $3.93 | $3.59 | $4.27 |
| 2025-12-22 | $3.92 | $3.58 | $4.26 |
| 2025-12-23 | $3.93 | $3.59 | $4.27 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.35% for the next trading day (2025-12-19), reaching $3.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-19 and 2025-12-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.82 and resistance at 4.14, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range.
The fundamental balance is at -7.52 BCFD, reflecting a significant change of +19.48, which may suggest increased supply pressures.
The weather outlook indicates high heating demand across key regions, especially the Northeast and Midwest, which could support prices in the short term. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.333, indicating potential volatility and risks.
Traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities that may arise from price movements within the support and resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD suggests that producers may need to adjust their output in response to changing market dynamics. The recent increase in the balance by +19.48 could indicate a shift towards oversupply.
Given the bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.333, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
The high heating demand expected in the Northeast and Midwest could provide a temporary boost in natural gas prices, allowing for strategic production planning to capitalize on this demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the high heating demand forecasted, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil.
The current fundamental balance reflects a significant shift towards oversupply, which may impact pricing strategies. However, the bearish sentiment in the market could indicate risks to supply reliability.
Consumers should consider reviewing their procurement strategies and potentially explore hedging options to protect against price volatility in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of -0.333. Key driving factors include a significant fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD and high heating demand due to weather forecasts.
Technical indicators show a neutral stance with Fibonacci levels indicating potential price movement between 3.82 and 4.14.
Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics closely, as these factors could lead to shifts in market sentiment and price outlooks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational