Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop down below $4, there has been a slight recovery to above $4 - the key support level to watch is 3.965 and the key resistance is 4.174. 3.965 dropped so we could be looking at a drop to 3.445. Watching 3.965 as the key bull/bear line which is showing downside.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-20 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has been in a tight spot, struggling with weak fall demand and a notable storage draw of 177 Bcf, which, while significant, was anticipated. Current projections indicate a winter exit storage of around 1.7 TCF, slightly above the 5-year average of 1.6 TCF. Prices recently dipped below $4 but managed a minor recovery, with critical support at 3.965. Watch for potential volatility as forecasts of polar vortex activity remain uncertain, leaving traders on edge. Technical indicators suggest caution as bearish sentiments linger.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.98
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.15
MA(20): $4.52
Current Price is 3.98, 9 day MA 4.15, 20 day MA 4.52
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0805
Signal: 0.0495
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.21
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.21 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 158,058
Avg (20d): 197,113
Ratio: 0.8
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 8.7
%D: 7.9
Stochastic %K: 8.7, %D: 7.9. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 28.51
+DI: 21.37
-DI: 25.41
ADX: 28.51 (+DI: 21.37, -DI: 25.41). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -91.3
Williams %R: -91.3 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.35
Middle: 4.52
Lower: 3.68
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.35, Middle: 4.52, Lower: 3.68
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
205.0 HDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
148.0 HDD
-72.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/20 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/21 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/22 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/23 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/24 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/25 | 16.0 | 32.0 | -16.0 |
| 12/26 | 16.0 | 33.0 | -17.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.6
Daily:
0.17 (0.17%)
Weekly:
0.45 (0.46%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
0.03 (0.85%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.74%)
SP500
6834.5
Daily:
59.74 (0.88%)
Weekly:
17.99 (0.26%)
VIX
14.91
Daily:
-1.96 (-11.62%)
Weekly:
-1.59 (-9.64%)
GOLD
4361.4
Daily:
21.9 (0.5%)
Weekly:
54.7 (1.27%)
COPPER
5.44
Daily:
0.07 (1.36%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.89%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,550,763
Change: +26,457
Managed Money
-31,091
Change: +8,882
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-44,462
Change: -9,509
-2.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
129,180
Change: -18,858
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-75,388
Change: +11,118
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,867,966
Change: -46,701
Managed Money
6,878
Change: +41,646
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
252,183
Change: -21,069
13.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-330,680
Change: +3,832
-17.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.485 EUR/MWh (+0.044). JKM prices increased to 9.675 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.190 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.485
+0.044Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-20
JKM Prices
9.675
+0.120Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-20
JKM-TTF Spread
0.190
2.00%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.1
9.8
9.5
9.3
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.485 |
| FEB 26 | 9.585 |
| MAR 26 | 9.486 |
| APR 26 | 9.220 |
| MAY 26 | 9.100 |
| JUN 26 | 9.102 |
| JUL 26 | 9.123 |
| AUG 26 | 9.166 |
| SEP 26 | 9.260 |
| OCT 26 | 9.300 |
| NOV 26 | 9.448 |
| DEC 26 | 9.547 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.675 |
| MAR 26 | 9.580 |
| APR 26 | 9.240 |
| MAY 26 | 9.140 |
| JUN 26 | 9.255 |
| JUL 26 | 9.405 |
| AUG 26 | 9.525 |
| SEP 26 | 9.500 |
| OCT 26 | 9.505 |
| NOV 26 | 9.485 |
| DEC 26 | 9.830 |
| JAN 27 | 9.970 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
62
Last Updated:
2025-12-20 23:47:50
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.1
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Crude Futures Rise on Venezuela, Russia Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (9 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Settle Higher on Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Risks and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Support Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Prices Climb Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains as Geopolitical Risks Mount Trading Economics
- Crude Prices Rise as Global Geopolitical Risks Escalate Barchart
- Rising Global Geopolitical Tensions Lift Crude Prices Barchart
- Oil Gains as Trump's Venezuela Blockade Raises Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.98
Closest Support:
$3.82
4.02% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
4.02% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.79
0.236
$3.43
0.382
$3.82
Support
0.5
$4.14
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.92
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.23
1.618
$7.17
2.0
$8.2
2.618
$9.88
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.98
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-20 23:47:50
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.03%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.32 |
| 2025-12-21 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.33 |
| 2025-12-22 | $3.98 | $3.64 | $4.32 |
| 2025-12-23 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.33 |
| 2025-12-24 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.33 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-12-20), reaching $3.99.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-20 and 2025-12-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support at 3.82 and resistance at 4.14, which may guide short-term trading strategies.
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -7.52 BCFD, indicating a potential tightening in supply. Coupled with a high heating demand forecast, this could lead to upward price pressure despite the ML price forecast predicting a slight increase of 0.03%.
Traders should remain vigilant for volatility, especially in light of the current bullish news sentiment across the market, particularly in crude oil, which could influence natural gas prices as well.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD suggests that producers may want to consider adjusting production levels to align with the anticipated high heating demand across regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest.
Given the bearish sentiment regarding supply and demand, as highlighted by recent news articles, producers should be cautious in their hedging strategies. The overall market sentiment remains positive, particularly for crude oil, which may provide opportunities for strategic positioning.
Producers should also keep an eye on geopolitical developments that could impact supply chains and pricing stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD suggests a tightening supply, which could lead to higher prices in the near term.
Given the overall market sentiment, consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price increases, particularly as winter approaches.
Reliability of supply may be at risk due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices, which could indirectly influence natural gas prices as well.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently experiencing a bullish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of +0.283 indicating optimism among market participants. However, the bearish sentiment in supply and demand dynamics, particularly for crude oil, suggests potential volatility ahead.
The fundamental balance indicates a significant deficit, while the weather outlook points to high heating demand, which could drive prices higher in the short term. Analysts should monitor these factors closely for shifts in market dynamics.
Overall, the market appears to be in a transitional phase, with both bullish and bearish factors at play, requiring careful analysis for future outlooks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific recommendations.