Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop down below $4, there has been a slight recovery to above $4 - the key support level to watch is 3.965 and the key resistance is 4.174. 3.965 dropped so we could be looking at a drop to 3.445. Watching 3.965 as the key bull/bear line which is showing downside.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-21 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a challenging landscape marked by weak demand and fluctuating storage levels. Recent data indicates a storage draw of 177 Bcf, but with tepid demand, the market remains cautious. As we approach winter, forecasts suggest equal chances of polar vortex activity, impacting consumption. Prices rebounded slightly above $4, yet key support lies at 3.965, with potential downside to 3.445 if breached. Traders should keep a close watch on these levels as market sentiment evolves.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.04
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.09
MA(20): $4.49
Current Price is 4.04, 9 day MA 4.09, 20 day MA 4.49
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0899
Signal: 0.0216
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.04
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.04 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,083
Avg (20d): 193,282
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 12.32
%D: 8.33
Stochastic %K: 12.32, %D: 8.33. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 26.8
+DI: 22.46
-DI: 24.62
ADX: 26.8 (+DI: 22.46, -DI: 24.62). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -87.68
Williams %R: -87.68 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.35
Middle: 4.49
Lower: 3.63
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.35, Middle: 4.49, Lower: 3.63
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
202.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
143.0 HDD
-77.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/21 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/22 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/23 | 20.0 | 31.0 | -11.0 |
| 12/24 | 20.0 | 31.0 | -11.0 |
| 12/25 | 17.0 | 32.0 | -15.0 |
| 12/26 | 17.0 | 33.0 | -16.0 |
| 12/27 | 20.0 | 31.0 | -11.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.61
Daily:
0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly:
0.46 (0.46%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
0.03 (0.85%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.74%)
SP500
6834.5
Daily:
59.74 (0.88%)
Weekly:
17.99 (0.26%)
VIX
14.91
Daily:
-1.96 (-11.62%)
Weekly:
-1.59 (-9.64%)
GOLD
4427.2
Daily:
65.8 (1.51%)
Weekly:
122.7 (2.85%)
COPPER
5.54
Daily:
0.1 (1.78%)
Weekly:
0.25 (4.72%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,550,763
Change: +26,457
Managed Money
-31,091
Change: +8,882
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-44,462
Change: -9,509
-2.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
129,180
Change: -18,858
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-75,388
Change: +11,118
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,867,966
Change: -46,701
Managed Money
6,878
Change: +41,646
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
252,183
Change: -21,069
13.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-330,680
Change: +3,832
-17.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.485 EUR/MWh (+0.044). JKM prices increased to 9.675 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.190 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.485
+0.044Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-21
JKM Prices
9.675
+0.120Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-21
JKM-TTF Spread
0.190
2.00%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.1
9.8
9.5
9.3
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.485 |
| FEB 26 | 9.585 |
| MAR 26 | 9.486 |
| APR 26 | 9.220 |
| MAY 26 | 9.100 |
| JUN 26 | 9.102 |
| JUL 26 | 9.123 |
| AUG 26 | 9.166 |
| SEP 26 | 9.260 |
| OCT 26 | 9.300 |
| NOV 26 | 9.448 |
| DEC 26 | 9.547 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.675 |
| MAR 26 | 9.580 |
| APR 26 | 9.240 |
| MAY 26 | 9.140 |
| JUN 26 | 9.255 |
| JUL 26 | 9.405 |
| AUG 26 | 9.525 |
| SEP 26 | 9.500 |
| OCT 26 | 9.505 |
| NOV 26 | 9.485 |
| DEC 26 | 9.830 |
| JAN 27 | 9.970 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
45
Last Updated:
2025-12-21 23:47:28
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Oil Gains Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Prices Settle Higher on Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Risks and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Support Crude Oil Prices Barchart
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.04
Closest Support:
$3.89
3.71% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.19
3.71% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
0.236
$3.51
0.382
$3.89
Support
0.5
$4.19
Resistance
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.98
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-21 23:47:28
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.03%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.32 |
| 2025-12-21 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.33 |
| 2025-12-22 | $3.98 | $3.64 | $4.32 |
| 2025-12-23 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.33 |
| 2025-12-24 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.33 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-12-20), reaching $3.99.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-20 and 2025-12-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral outlook with technical indicators scoring 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.89 and resistance at 4.19, indicating a trading range that may limit volatility.
With a fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD (change: +19.48), traders should be cautious of potential price movements, particularly as the heating demand is expected to dominate across regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.03%, suggesting short-term trading opportunities within the range of 3.65 to 4.32.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should note the fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation. This could impact production planning and necessitate adjustments in output to maintain market stability.
The neutral sentiment in news articles, particularly regarding natural gas sentiment at -0.400, suggests caution in market positioning. Producers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for high heating demand due to the weather outlook, particularly with HDD values peaking in the Northeast and Midwest. This could lead to cost fluctuations as demand surges.
The fundamental balance indicates a -7.52 BCFD situation, which may affect supply reliability. Consumers are advised to review their procurement strategies and consider potential hedging to safeguard against price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD reflecting a tightening supply scenario. The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.400) contrasts with the bullish sentiment for crude oil (+0.700), indicating divergent trends across commodities.
Key driving factors include strong heating demand due to weather forecasts, which may shift outlooks if sustained. Analysts should monitor these trends closely to identify potential shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.