Nat Gas is coming off of a VERY SOFT demand week but entering this week as a very strong demand week. And have probably 125 BCF adding to the balance versus the 5 year average into early January. While we are currently only 0.9% over the 5 year average which is the support at $4 gas, but hardly paints a picture of $5+ on price. With demand fluctuating, we have seen Canadian imports matching 3 year averages and production ticking up (over 5 bcfd versus last year) this puts a cap on upside IMHO. On the technical side, we close the January contract next week, but Iām expecting this week to be very light on volume. 4.062 is still the bull/bear line this week but the Sunday/Monday gap may point to another trip to 3.965 - if that level falls, we are likely dropping down to 3.44. Feb is trading around the 3.75 level at the moment, so that points down after the roll late this week or next. If the bulls catch some wind or a forecast, they will need to push past 4.174 to open the door to 4.476. This week, I am watching 4.062 as the pivot, 3.965 as the support, and 4.174 as the resistance. Wow - Monday brought us a HUGE selloff then a miracle recovery to end up right above the 3.965 support
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-22 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing fluctuations as we transition from a notably weak demand week to potentially stronger demand ahead. Currently, we sit just above the 5-year average, with a balance likely adding 125 BCF into early January. However, production increases and stable Canadian imports may cap price upside. Technical indicators show 4.062 as a pivotal point this week, with potential support at 3.965. A breach below could lead to further declines, while a push past 4.174 might ignite bullish momentum. Keep an eye on those key levels!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.96
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.08
MA(20): $4.48
Current Price is 3.96, 9 day MA 4.08, 20 day MA 4.48
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0963
Signal: 0.0203
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.75
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.75 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,430
Avg (20d): 192,572
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 7.43
%D: 6.7
Stochastic %K: 7.43, %D: 6.7. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 27.09
+DI: 21.02
-DI: 24.99
ADX: 27.09 (+DI: 21.02, -DI: 24.99). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -92.57
Williams %R: -92.57 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.35
Middle: 4.48
Lower: 3.62
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.35, Middle: 4.48, Lower: 3.62
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
198.0 HDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
138.0 HDD
-81.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/20 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/22 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/23 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/24 | 18.0 | 31.0 | -13.0 |
| 12/25 | 16.0 | 32.0 | -16.0 |
| 12/26 | 16.0 | 33.0 | -17.0 |
| 12/27 | 20.0 | 31.0 | -11.0 |
| 12/28 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.05
Daily:
-0.55 (-0.56%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-0.1%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.02 (0.43%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.48%)
SP500
6878.49
Daily:
43.99 (0.64%)
Weekly:
78.23 (1.15%)
VIX
14.08
Daily:
-0.83 (-5.57%)
Weekly:
-2.4 (-14.56%)
GOLD
4518.2
Daily:
156.8 (3.6%)
Weekly:
213.7 (4.96%)
COPPER
5.51
Daily:
0.07 (1.23%)
Weekly:
0.22 (4.15%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,550,763
Change: +26,457
Managed Money
-31,091
Change: +8,882
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-44,462
Change: -9,509
-2.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
129,180
Change: -18,858
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-75,388
Change: +11,118
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,867,966
Change: -46,701
Managed Money
6,878
Change: +41,646
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
252,183
Change: -21,069
13.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-330,680
Change: +3,832
-17.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.485 EUR/MWh (+0.044). JKM prices increased to 9.675 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.190 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.485
+0.044Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-22
JKM Prices
9.675
+0.120Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-22
JKM-TTF Spread
0.190
2.00%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-22
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.1
9.8
9.5
9.3
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.485 |
| FEB 26 | 9.585 |
| MAR 26 | 9.486 |
| APR 26 | 9.220 |
| MAY 26 | 9.100 |
| JUN 26 | 9.102 |
| JUL 26 | 9.123 |
| AUG 26 | 9.166 |
| SEP 26 | 9.260 |
| OCT 26 | 9.300 |
| NOV 26 | 9.448 |
| DEC 26 | 9.547 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.675 |
| MAR 26 | 9.580 |
| APR 26 | 9.240 |
| MAY 26 | 9.140 |
| JUN 26 | 9.255 |
| JUL 26 | 9.405 |
| AUG 26 | 9.525 |
| SEP 26 | 9.500 |
| OCT 26 | 9.505 |
| NOV 26 | 9.485 |
| DEC 26 | 9.830 |
| JAN 27 | 9.970 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.383
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
40
Last Updated:
2025-12-22 23:47:45
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.96
Closest Support:
$3.89
1.77% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.19
5.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
0.236
$3.51
0.382
$3.89
Support
0.5
$4.19
Resistance
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.96
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-22 23:47:45
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | $3.97 | $3.64 | $4.3 |
| 2025-12-24 | $3.97 | $3.64 | $4.29 |
| 2025-12-25 | $3.97 | $3.64 | $4.3 |
| 2025-12-26 | $3.97 | $3.64 | $4.29 |
| 2025-12-27 | $3.97 | $3.64 | $4.3 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-12-23), reaching $3.97.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-23 and 2025-12-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a neutral technical outlook, with Fibonacci support at 3.89 and resistance at 4.19. The fundamental balance indicates a draw of -7.52 BCFD, reflecting a tightening market. The weather outlook points towards high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may create upward pressure on prices. The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.11%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. Traders should monitor the resistance level closely for breakout potential.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bullish market sentiment, with a sentiment score of +0.400, indicates favorable conditions for production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies in response to the fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD, which suggests a tightening supply scenario. The ongoing high heating demand across regions may lead to increased consumption, further supporting market prices. It is crucial to stay updated on geopolitical developments that could impact supply chains.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecasted high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. The current fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD could lead to tighter supply, increasing procurement costs. As the market sentiment remains bullish, it may be prudent to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a combination of factors, including bullish sentiment, high heating demand, and a tightening fundamental balance. The weather outlook indicates significant heating requirements across multiple regions, which is expected to support prices. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on supply, as well as the price forecast suggesting a slight upward trend. Monitoring these factors will be critical for understanding future market shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.