Nat Gas is coming off of a VERY SOFT demand week but entering this week as a very strong demand week. And have probably 125 BCF adding to the balance versus the 5 year average into early January. While we are currently only 0.9% over the 5 year average which is the support at $4 gas, but hardly paints a picture of $5+ on price. With demand fluctuating, we have seen Canadian imports matching 3 year averages and production ticking up (over 5 bcfd versus last year) this puts a cap on upside IMHO. On the technical side, we close the January contract next week, but Iām expecting this week to be very light on volume. 4.062 is still the bull/bear line this week but the Sunday/Monday gap may point to another trip to 3.965 - if that level falls, we are likely dropping down to 3.44. Feb is trading around the 3.75 level at the moment, so that points down after the roll late this week or next. If the bulls catch some wind or a forecast, they will need to push past 4.174 to open the door to 4.476. This week, I am watching 4.062 as the pivot, 3.965 as the support, and 4.174 as the resistance. Wow - Monday brought us a HUGE selloff then a miracle recovery to end up right above the 3.965 support. Then Tuesday brought a HUGE recovery and traded up to 4.40.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has undergone a rollercoaster ride recently, starting from a very soft demand week but quickly pivoting to a strong demand outlook as colder weather sets in. Currently, we're hovering just 0.9% above the five-year average, with prices supported around $4.062. However, production is on the rise and Canadian imports match three-year averages, capping potential upside. Watch key levels: 3.965 (support) and 4.174 (resistance) as we navigate this volatile landscape. Weather forecasts will be crucial in shaping future price movements.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$3.92
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.01
MA(20): $4.45
Current Price is 3.92, 9 day MA 4.01, 20 day MA 4.45
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1105
Signal: -0.0058
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.88
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.88 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,399
Avg (20d): 196,776
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 7.53
%D: 8.71
Stochastic %K: 7.53, %D: 8.71. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.79
+DI: 21.73
-DI: 22.38
ADX: 24.79 (+DI: 21.73, -DI: 22.38). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -92.47
Williams %R: -92.47 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.35
Middle: 4.45
Lower: 3.55
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.35, Middle: 4.45, Lower: 3.55
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
188.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
150.0 HDD
-67.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/20 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/21 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/23 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/24 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/25 | 18.0 | 32.0 | -14.0 |
| 12/26 | 19.0 | 33.0 | -14.0 |
| 12/27 | 20.0 | 31.0 | -11.0 |
| 12/28 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/29 | 32.0 | 29.0 | +3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.9
Daily:
-0.39 (-0.4%)
Weekly:
-0.47 (-0.48%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.43%)
SP500
6909.79
Daily:
31.3 (0.46%)
Weekly:
188.36 (2.8%)
VIX
14.0
Daily:
-0.08 (-0.57%)
Weekly:
-3.62 (-20.54%)
GOLD
4524.7
Daily:
80.1 (1.8%)
Weekly:
177.2 (4.08%)
COPPER
5.58
Daily:
0.15 (2.7%)
Weekly:
0.22 (4.12%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,574,623
Change: +23,860
Managed Money
-66,328
Change: -35,237
-4.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-14,725
Change: +29,737
-0.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
130,632
Change: +1,452
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-61,709
Change: +13,679
-3.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: +48,472
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.455 EUR/MWh (-0.030). JKM prices decreased to 9.590 USD/MMBtu (-0.085). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.135 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.455
-0.030Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-23
JKM Prices
9.590
-0.085Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-23
JKM-TTF Spread
0.135
1.43%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.1
9.8
9.5
9.3
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.455 |
| FEB 26 | 9.485 |
| MAR 26 | 9.399 |
| APR 26 | 9.198 |
| MAY 26 | 9.093 |
| JUN 26 | 9.106 |
| JUL 26 | 9.121 |
| AUG 26 | 9.168 |
| SEP 26 | 9.262 |
| OCT 26 | 9.305 |
| NOV 26 | 9.454 |
| DEC 26 | 9.551 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.590 |
| MAR 26 | 9.475 |
| APR 26 | 9.185 |
| MAY 26 | 9.120 |
| JUN 26 | 9.255 |
| JUL 26 | 9.400 |
| AUG 26 | 9.520 |
| SEP 26 | 9.495 |
| OCT 26 | 9.505 |
| NOV 26 | 9.535 |
| DEC 26 | 9.885 |
| JAN 27 | 9.995 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
41
Last Updated:
2025-12-23 23:47:55
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.1
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil edges up on strong US economic growth, supply risks Reuters
- Oil Gains on Venezuela Supply Risks ā Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles higher on risk of disruptions to Venezuela, Russia supply Reuters
- CNOOC Commences Production At Xijiang Oilfields 24 Block Project In Pearl River Mouth Basin dpa-AFX
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Oil steady after five-day rally on US data, geopolitical tension Reuters
- Oil Gains Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions Trading Economics
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.92
Closest Support:
$3.89
0.77% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.19
6.89% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
0.236
$3.51
0.382
$3.89
Support
0.5
$4.19
Resistance
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.41
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-23 23:47:56
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-24 | $4.36 | $3.99 | $4.73 |
| 2025-12-25 | $4.39 | $4.02 | $4.76 |
| 2025-12-26 | $4.4 | $4.03 | $4.77 |
| 2025-12-27 | $4.4 | $4.04 | $4.77 |
| 2025-12-28 | $4.38 | $4.01 | $4.75 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.04% for the next trading day (2025-12-24), reaching $4.36.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-24 and 2025-12-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 3.89 and resistance at 4.19. The short-term price forecast indicates a potential decline of 1.04%, which may present short-term trading opportunities around these levels. Traders should monitor volatility closely, as the ML price forecast and current news sentiment could lead to price fluctuations.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -7.52 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation. This shift, along with a positive market sentiment, suggests that producers may consider adjusting production levels to capitalize on potential price increases. Additionally, with high heating demand forecasted due to significant heating degree days (HDD), producers should evaluate hedging strategies to protect against volatility in pricing.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the high heating demand expected across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The current market fundamentals suggest a tightening supply, which could impact reliability in procurement. It may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in the upcoming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a positive sentiment and a fundamental imbalance indicating a tightening supply. The high heating demand forecasted suggests that this trend may continue, with the potential for price increases. Analysts should focus on the interplay between weather patterns and machine learning price forecasts to assess future market conditions and identify shifts in sentiment that may impact trading strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.