Nat Gas is coming off of a VERY SOFT demand week but entering this week as a very strong demand week. And have probably 125 BCF adding to the balance versus the 5 year average into early January. While we are currently only 0.9% over the 5 year average which is the support at $4 gas, but hardly paints a picture of $5+ on price. With demand fluctuating, we have seen Canadian imports matching 3 year averages and production ticking up (over 5 bcfd versus last year) this puts a cap on upside IMHO. On the technical side, we close the January contract next week, but Iām expecting this week to be very light on volume. 4.062 is still the bull/bear line this week but the Sunday/Monday gap may point to another trip to 3.965 - if that level falls, we are likely dropping down to 3.44. Feb is trading around the 3.75 level at the moment, so that points down after the roll late this week or next. If the bulls catch some wind or a forecast, they will need to push past 4.174 to open the door to 4.476. This week, I am watching 4.062 as the pivot, 3.965 as the support, and 4.174 as the resistance. Wow - Monday brought us a HUGE selloff then a miracle recovery to end up right above the 3.965 support. Then Tuesday brought a HUGE recovery and traded up to 4.40.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-24 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has experienced a rollercoaster week, shifting from a soft demand scenario to a strong demand outlook. Currently, inventories are only 0.9% above the five-year average, capping any hopes for prices above $5. Recent forecasts indicate warmer weather, contributing to a 5% drop in prices, despite a brief recovery from a seven-week low. Key levels to watch are $4.062 as the pivot, with support at $3.965 and resistance at $4.174. Traders should prepare for volatility as demand fluctuates and weather patterns evolve.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.24
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.06
MA(20): $4.47
Current Price is 4.24, 9 day MA 4.06, 20 day MA 4.47
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0655
Signal: -0.0116
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 48.77
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 48.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 126,794
Avg (20d): 197,063
Ratio: 0.64
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 26.19
%D: 24.01
Stochastic %K: 26.19, %D: 24.01. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.51
+DI: 28.13
-DI: 18.01
ADX: 25.51 (+DI: 28.13, -DI: 18.01). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -73.81
Williams %R: -73.81 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.34
Middle: 4.47
Lower: 3.6
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.34, Middle: 4.47, Lower: 3.6
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
177.0 HDD
-35.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
170.0 HDD
-46.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/20 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/21 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/22 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/24 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/25 | 19.0 | 32.0 | -13.0 |
| 12/26 | 21.0 | 33.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/27 | 20.0 | 31.0 | -11.0 |
| 12/28 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/29 | 34.0 | 29.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/30 | 34.0 | 30.0 | +4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.98
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.45 (-0.46%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.49%)
SP500
6932.05
Daily:
22.26 (0.32%)
Weekly:
157.29 (2.32%)
VIX
13.47
Daily:
-0.53 (-3.79%)
Weekly:
-3.4 (-20.15%)
GOLD
4480.6
Daily:
-2.2 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
141.1 (3.25%)
COPPER
5.5
Daily:
0.02 (0.41%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.46%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,574,623
Change: +23,860
Managed Money
-66,328
Change: -35,237
-4.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-14,725
Change: +29,737
-0.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
130,632
Change: +1,452
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-61,709
Change: +13,679
-3.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: +48,472
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.460 EUR/MWh (+0.005). JKM prices increased to 9.630 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.170 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.460
+0.005Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-24
JKM Prices
9.630
+0.040Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-24
JKM-TTF Spread
0.170
1.80%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-24
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.1
9.8
9.6
9.3
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.460 |
| FEB 26 | 9.518 |
| MAR 26 | 9.421 |
| APR 26 | 9.232 |
| MAY 26 | 9.119 |
| JUN 26 | 9.139 |
| JUL 26 | 9.158 |
| AUG 26 | 9.202 |
| SEP 26 | 9.296 |
| OCT 26 | 9.340 |
| NOV 26 | 9.496 |
| DEC 26 | 9.599 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.630 |
| MAR 26 | 9.505 |
| APR 26 | 9.195 |
| MAY 26 | 9.160 |
| JUN 26 | 9.285 |
| JUL 26 | 9.415 |
| AUG 26 | 9.550 |
| SEP 26 | 9.520 |
| OCT 26 | 9.525 |
| NOV 26 | 9.565 |
| DEC 26 | 9.950 |
| JAN 27 | 10.030 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.033
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
52
Last Updated:
2025-12-24 23:47:42
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil edges up on strong US economic growth, supply risks Reuters
- Oil Gains on Venezuela Supply Risks ā Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles higher on risk of disruptions to Venezuela, Russia supply Reuters
- CNOOC Commences Production At Xijiang Oilfields 24 Block Project In Pearl River Mouth Basin dpa-AFX
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.24
Closest Support:
$4.19
1.18% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.5
6.13% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
0.236
$3.51
0.382
$3.89
0.5
$4.19
Support
0.618
$4.5
Resistance
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.41
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-24 23:47:43
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-24 | $4.36 | $3.99 | $4.73 |
| 2025-12-25 | $4.39 | $4.02 | $4.76 |
| 2025-12-26 | $4.4 | $4.03 | $4.77 |
| 2025-12-27 | $4.4 | $4.04 | $4.77 |
| 2025-12-28 | $4.38 | $4.01 | $4.75 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.04% for the next trading day (2025-12-24), reaching $4.36.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-24 and 2025-12-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD, which has seen a significant change of +19.48. The technical outlook is moderately bullish with a score of 2/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 4.19 and resistance level at 4.5. The next day's ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 1.04%, indicating short-term volatility that could present both opportunities and risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current neutral market sentiment suggests a cautious approach. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply situation, which may warrant adjustments in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies in light of the negative sentiment surrounding natural gas prices, particularly with forecasts indicating low cooling demand and high heating demand across regions. Monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on crude oil supply will be critical for operational adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With heating demand expected to be high due to the weather outlook (HDD: 26.1), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD indicates some supply strain, which could affect reliability. The neutral sentiment in market news suggests that while immediate risks may be low, it is wise to consider procurement strategies that mitigate exposure to price volatility, especially given the forecasted decline in natural gas prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance showing a tightening supply scenario. The technical indicators point to moderate bullishness, but with significant resistance levels that traders should monitor. Key driving factors include high heating demand across multiple regions and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil supply. Analysts should prepare for potential shifts in sentiment as weather patterns evolve and geopolitical developments unfold, which could impact both supply and pricing dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.