Nat Gas is coming off of a VERY SOFT demand week but entering this week as a very strong demand week. And have probably 125 BCF adding to the balance versus the 5 year average into early January. While we are currently only 0.9% over the 5 year average which is the support at $4 gas, but hardly paints a picture of $5+ on price. With demand fluctuating, we have seen Canadian imports matching 3 year averages and production ticking up (over 5 bcfd versus last year) this puts a cap on upside IMHO. On the technical side, we close the January contract next week, but I’m expecting this week to be very light on volume. 4.062 is still the bull/bear line this week but the Sunday/Monday gap may point to another trip to 3.965 - if that level falls, we are likely dropping down to 3.44. Feb is trading around the 3.75 level at the moment, so that points down after the roll late this week or next. If the bulls catch some wind or a forecast, they will need to push past 4.174 to open the door to 4.476. This week, I am watching 4.062 as the pivot, 3.965 as the support, and 4.174 as the resistance. Lots of volatility this week with Monday testing 3.80, Tuesday testing 4.40, and Wednesday settling in at 4.24. Weather looks bearish so downside seems likely.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-25 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has seen a whirlwind of activity, transitioning from a very soft demand week to a strong demand forecast. Currently, storage is just 0.9% above the five-year average, hinting at a $4 support level. However, price caps loom due to rising production and stable Canadian imports. As we approach contract closure, watch for key levels: 4.062 as the pivot, with potential drops to 3.965 or rebounds to 4.174. With warmer weather forecasts driving prices down by over 5%, volatility remains high—stay alert!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.88
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.03
MA(20): $4.43
Current Price is 3.88, 9 day MA 4.03, 20 day MA 4.43
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0884
Signal: -0.027
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.46
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.46 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,023
Avg (20d): 189,606
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 10.05
%D: 24.07
Stochastic %K: 10.05, %D: 24.07. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.9
+DI: 24.78
-DI: 26.33
ADX: 23.9 (+DI: 24.78, -DI: 26.33). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -89.95
Williams %R: -89.95 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.34
Middle: 4.43
Lower: 3.53
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.34, Middle: 4.43, Lower: 3.53
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
168.0 HDD
-46.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
176.0 HDD
-39.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/20 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/21 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/22 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/23 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 18.0 | 32.0 | -14.0 |
| 12/26 | 21.0 | 33.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/27 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/28 | 22.0 | 30.0 | -8.0 |
| 12/29 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/30 | 33.0 | 30.0 | +3.0 |
| 12/31 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.98
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.62 (-0.63%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.49%)
SP500
6932.05
Daily:
22.26 (0.32%)
Weekly:
157.29 (2.32%)
VIX
13.47
Daily:
-0.53 (-3.79%)
Weekly:
-3.4 (-20.15%)
GOLD
4537.4
Daily:
56.8 (1.27%)
Weekly:
176.0 (4.04%)
COPPER
5.73
Daily:
0.23 (4.17%)
Weekly:
0.29 (5.3%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,574,623
Change: +23,860
Managed Money
-66,328
Change: -35,237
-4.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-14,725
Change: +29,737
-0.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
130,632
Change: +1,452
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-61,709
Change: +13,679
-3.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: +48,472
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.478 EUR/MWh (+0.018). JKM prices increased to 9.730 USD/MMBtu (+0.100). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.252 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.478
+0.018Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-25
JKM Prices
9.730
+0.100Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-25
JKM-TTF Spread
0.252
2.66%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.2
10.0
9.7
9.4
9.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.478 |
| FEB 26 | 9.650 |
| MAR 26 | 9.553 |
| APR 26 | 9.363 |
| MAY 26 | 9.255 |
| JUN 26 | 9.264 |
| JUL 26 | 9.285 |
| AUG 26 | 9.325 |
| SEP 26 | 9.407 |
| OCT 26 | 9.447 |
| NOV 26 | 9.603 |
| DEC 26 | 9.706 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.730 |
| MAR 26 | 9.640 |
| APR 26 | 9.335 |
| MAY 26 | 9.285 |
| JUN 26 | 9.405 |
| JUL 26 | 9.540 |
| AUG 26 | 9.680 |
| SEP 26 | 9.630 |
| OCT 26 | 9.625 |
| NOV 26 | 9.670 |
| DEC 26 | 10.050 |
| JAN 27 | 10.155 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
51
Last Updated:
2025-12-25 23:47:53
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil edges up on strong US economic growth, supply risks Reuters
- Oil Gains on Venezuela Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.88
Closest Support:
$3.51
9.54% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.89
0.26% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
0.236
$3.51
Support
0.382
$3.89
Resistance
0.5
$4.19
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.24
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-25 23:47:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.92%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-25 | $4.28 | $3.91 | $4.65 |
| 2025-12-26 | $4.29 | $3.92 | $4.66 |
| 2025-12-27 | $4.29 | $3.92 | $4.66 |
| 2025-12-28 | $4.26 | $3.89 | $4.63 |
| 2025-12-29 | $4.28 | $3.9 | $4.65 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.92% for the next trading day (2025-12-25), reaching $4.28.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-25 and 2025-12-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral outlook with a fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD, indicating a slight oversupply. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.51 while resistance is at 3.89, suggesting potential volatility within this range. Traders should monitor for price movements around these levels and consider short-term opportunities as the ML forecast indicates a potential price increase of 0.92% in the next day.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment is mixed, with a score of +0.100, indicating caution. The fundamental balance reflects an oversupply, which may pressure prices. Producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with anticipated heating demand, especially in the Northeast and Midwest regions where high heating demand is expected. Hedging strategies may be necessary to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, particularly given the bearish sentiment around natural gas.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected across most regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance of -7.52 BCFD suggests a reliable supply; however, the risk of price increases remains due to geopolitical factors and overall market sentiment. It may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging strategies to manage procurement costs effectively in light of the ML forecast indicating a short-term price increase.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with specific bullish and bearish signals emerging from different sectors. The fundamental balance indicates an oversupply situation, while the weather outlook shows significant heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Analysts should focus on the divergence between bullish sentiment in crude oil and bearish sentiment in natural gas, as these factors could drive shifts in market dynamics moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.