Nat Gas is coming off of a VERY SOFT demand week but entering this week as a very strong demand week. And have probably 125 BCF adding to the balance versus the 5 year average into early January. While we are currently only 0.9% over the 5 year average which is the support at $4 gas, but hardly paints a picture of $5+ on price. With demand fluctuating, we have seen Canadian imports matching 3 year averages and production ticking up (over 5 bcfd versus last year) this puts a cap on upside IMHO. On the technical side, we close the January contract next week, but Iām expecting this week to be very light on volume. 4.062 is still the bull/bear line this week but the Sunday/Monday gap may point to another trip to 3.965 - if that level falls, we are likely dropping down to 3.44. Feb is trading around the 3.75 level at the moment, so that points down after the roll late this week or next. If the bulls catch some wind or a forecast, they will need to push past 4.174 to open the door to 4.476. This week, I am watching 4.062 as the pivot, 3.965 as the support, and 4.174 as the resistance. Lots of volatility this week with Monday testing 3.80, Tuesday testing 4.40, and Wednesday settling in at 4.24. Weather looks bearish so downside seems likely.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-27 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is experiencing a shift from a weak demand week to a stronger one, with expectations of adding 125 BCF to balances versus the five-year average by early January. Currently, prices hover around $4, with only a slight 0.9% surplus over the average, limiting upside potential. Watch for volatility as technical levels reveal a pivotal $4.062. If it breaks below $3.965, we could see a drop to $3.44. Cold weather forecasts may provide bulls a chance, but bearish trends loom with weather patterns suggesting downward pressure.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.37
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.09
MA(20): $4.46
Current Price is 4.37, 9 day MA 4.09, 20 day MA 4.46
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0497
Signal: -0.0192
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.7
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.7 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 57,070
Avg (20d): 188,672
Ratio: 0.3
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 40.41
%D: 34.19
Stochastic %K: 40.41, %D: 34.19. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.25
+DI: 26.54
-DI: 17.0
ADX: 25.25 (+DI: 26.54, -DI: 17.0). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -59.59
Williams %R: -59.59 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.33
Middle: 4.46
Lower: 3.59
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.33, Middle: 4.46, Lower: 3.59
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
161.0 HDD
-57.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
205.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/20 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/21 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/22 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/23 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/24 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 12/25 | 19.0 | 32.0 | -13.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/27 | 22.0 | 31.0 | -9.0 |
| 12/28 | 21.0 | 30.0 | -9.0 |
| 12/29 | 28.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/30 | 33.0 | 30.0 | +3.0 |
| 12/31 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/01 | 34.0 | 30.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/02 | 36.0 | 30.0 | +6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.02
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.58 (-0.59%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.36%)
SP500
6929.94
Daily:
-2.11 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
95.44 (1.4%)
VIX
13.6
Daily:
0.13 (0.97%)
Weekly:
-1.31 (-8.79%)
GOLD
4529.1
Daily:
48.5 (1.08%)
Weekly:
167.7 (3.85%)
COPPER
5.77
Daily:
0.27 (4.87%)
Weekly:
0.33 (6.01%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,574,623
Change: +23,860
Managed Money
-66,328
Change: -35,237
-4.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-14,725
Change: +29,737
-0.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
130,632
Change: +1,452
8.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-61,709
Change: +13,679
-3.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-16
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,916,438
Change: +48,472
Managed Money
74
Change: -6,804
0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
247,515
Change: -4,668
12.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-320,087
Change: +10,593
-16.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 9.478 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 9.720 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.242 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.478
+0.000Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-27
JKM Prices
9.720
-0.010Front month: FEB 26
As of 2025-12-27
JKM-TTF Spread
0.242
2.55%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-27
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.2
10.0
9.7
9.4
9.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.478 |
| FEB 26 | 9.650 |
| MAR 26 | 9.553 |
| APR 26 | 9.363 |
| MAY 26 | 9.255 |
| JUN 26 | 9.264 |
| JUL 26 | 9.285 |
| AUG 26 | 9.325 |
| SEP 26 | 9.407 |
| OCT 26 | 9.447 |
| NOV 26 | 9.603 |
| DEC 26 | 9.706 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.720 |
| MAR 26 | 9.640 |
| APR 26 | 9.335 |
| MAY 26 | 9.285 |
| JUN 26 | 9.405 |
| JUL 26 | 9.540 |
| AUG 26 | 9.680 |
| SEP 26 | 9.630 |
| OCT 26 | 9.625 |
| NOV 26 | 9.670 |
| DEC 26 | 10.050 |
| JAN 27 | 10.155 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
24
Last Updated:
2025-12-27 23:47:33
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.37
Closest Support:
$4.19
4.12% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.5
2.97% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
0.236
$3.51
0.382
$3.89
0.5
$4.19
Support
0.618
$4.5
Resistance
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.37
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-27 23:47:34
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.36%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | $4.35 | $3.99 | $4.72 |
| 2025-12-28 | $4.33 | $3.97 | $4.7 |
| 2025-12-29 | $4.35 | $3.98 | $4.71 |
| 2025-12-30 | $4.35 | $3.98 | $4.71 |
| 2025-12-31 | $4.34 | $3.97 | $4.7 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.36% for the next trading day (2025-12-27), reaching $4.35.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-27 and 2025-12-31.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market sentiment is currently bearish with a sentiment score of -0.400, indicating caution in the market. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.19 while resistance is at 4.5. This range suggests potential volatility, with traders monitoring for price movements around these levels. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.36% tomorrow, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Traders should consider short-term opportunities but remain alert to risks associated with sudden market shifts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -7.52 BCFD with a significant change of +19.48, indicating an increase in supply pressure. This situation may necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. The prevailing bearish sentiment could affect pricing strategies, making it crucial for producers to assess their exposure and consider locking in prices where feasible.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a strong emphasis on heating demand due to significant heating degree days (HDD) across most regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The bearish market sentiment may lead to lower prices; however, risks associated with supply reliability should be closely monitored. Procurement strategies may need to adapt to this dynamic environment, especially with upcoming weather changes influencing demand patterns.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The overall market is characterized by a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.400, driven by a significant increase in fundamental balance and low cooling demand. The weather outlook suggests a predominance of heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which could impact short-term pricing dynamics. Analysts should focus on the convergence of these factors, as they may signal a shift in market conditions, warranting closer scrutiny of both supply and demand trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.