Natural gas tells a similar story. Despite recent volatility, production remains near 110 Bcf/d, storage is projected to run ~200 Bcf looser than the five-year average, and European gas prices are down nearly 45% year-over-year, signaling global abundance. This week is about reconciling price behavior with balance-sheet reality and understanding which forces actually have the mass to move markets. This winter has been the story of strong forecasts and the market trades up, then real weather comes in falling short of the strong forecasts while traders forget and look at the next forecast. Well, as everything works in natural gas - it works until it doesn’t…after the turn of the year traders brought the previous level of 5.50 down to the reasonable level of 3.449. While I felt 4.50+ was too high, I feel like 3.449 is too low and a retracement to 3.75 is closer to fundamental parity. For now, I am watching the gap fill to 3.599 and likely return to 3.67 while waiting on forecasts.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-09 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently slipped, driven by a loose supply outlook and warm weather forecasts. Production remains steady at around 110 Bcf/d, with storage levels expected to be about 200 Bcf higher than the five-year average. Despite a recent inventory draw, prices fell to a 12-week low, indicating market skepticism about demand strength. As traders reassess forecasts, a potential rebound to around $3.75 seems more in line with fundamentals. Keep an eye on weather patterns and inventory updates for further price direction.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.14
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.66
MA(20): $3.9
Current Price is 3.14, 9 day MA 3.66, 20 day MA 3.9
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2648
Signal: -0.1666
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 33.7
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 33.7 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 303,687
Avg (20d): 162,309
Ratio: 1.87
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.63
%D: 6.99
Stochastic %K: 0.63, %D: 6.99. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.72
+DI: 18.76
-DI: 31.08
ADX: 20.72 (+DI: 18.76, -DI: 31.08). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.37
Williams %R: -99.37 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.67
Middle: 3.9
Lower: 3.14
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.67, Middle: 3.9, Lower: 3.14
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
192.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
169.0 HDD
-50.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 01/02 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/03 | 30.0 | 30.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/04 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/05 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/06 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/07 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | 19.0 | 31.0 | -12.0 |
| 01/10 | 22.0 | 32.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 27.0 | 31.0 | -4.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/15 | 28.0 | 32.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.14
Daily:
0.21 (0.21%)
Weekly:
0.87 (0.88%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.14%)
SP500
6966.28
Daily:
44.82 (0.65%)
Weekly:
64.23 (0.93%)
VIX
14.49
Daily:
-0.96 (-6.21%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-2.75%)
GOLD
4518.4
Daily:
68.7 (1.54%)
Weekly:
81.5 (1.84%)
COPPER
5.89
Daily:
0.14 (2.51%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.57%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,596,169
Change: +62,184
Managed Money
-101,384
Change: -17,419
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
6,639
Change: +11,945
0.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,275
Change: -2,655
9.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,175
Change: +6,754
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: +70,622
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.527 EUR/MWh (-0.296). JKM prices decreased to 9.555 USD/MMBtu (-0.050). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.028 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.527
-0.296Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-09
JKM Prices
9.555
-0.050Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-09
JKM-TTF Spread
0.028
0.29%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-09
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.1
8.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.527 |
| MAR 26 | 9.354 |
| APR 26 | 9.095 |
| MAY 26 | 8.959 |
| JUN 26 | 8.959 |
| JUL 26 | 8.975 |
| AUG 26 | 9.008 |
| SEP 26 | 9.104 |
| OCT 26 | 9.132 |
| NOV 26 | 9.247 |
| DEC 26 | 9.343 |
| JAN 27 | 9.409 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.555 |
| MAR 26 | 9.295 |
| APR 26 | 9.040 |
| MAY 26 | 8.945 |
| JUN 26 | 9.055 |
| JUL 26 | 9.195 |
| AUG 26 | 9.345 |
| SEP 26 | 9.325 |
| OCT 26 | 9.295 |
| NOV 26 | 9.310 |
| DEC 26 | 9.680 |
| JAN 27 | 9.810 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.017
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
97
Last Updated:
2026-01-09 23:47:57
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus Reuters
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Futures Fall After Trump Says Venezuela to Supply Oil to U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Crude Can Compete With Increased Output From Venezuela, PM Carney Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (8 articles)
- Crude Sharply Higher on Energy Demand Strength and Index Buying of Oil Futures Barchart
- Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures Barchart
- Canada Flips to Trade Deficit, Though Exports Beyond U.S. Jump — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Exports Buoyed By Precious Metals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Commodity Demand Helps Canada Reduce Reliance on Trade With U.S. — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Prices Retreat on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
- Crude Prices Slip on Dollar Strength and Energy Demand Concerns Barchart
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Crude Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil Rises Amid Prospects of Russia-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises As Trump Said to Back Russia Sanctions Bill — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events Reuters
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.14
Closest Support:
$2.89
7.96% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.51
11.78% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
Support
0.236
$3.51
Resistance
0.382
$3.89
0.5
$4.19
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.41
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-09 23:47:58
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.26%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | $3.42 | $2.96 | $3.87 |
| 2026-01-10 | $3.42 | $2.96 | $3.88 |
| 2026-01-11 | $3.43 | $2.97 | $3.89 |
| 2026-01-12 | $3.42 | $2.96 | $3.87 |
| 2026-01-13 | $3.42 | $2.97 | $3.88 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.26% for the next trading day (2026-01-09), reaching $3.42.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-09 and 2026-01-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~26.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.89 and resistance at 3.51, indicating a potential trading range that should be monitored closely.
With the ML price forecast predicting a slight increase of 0.26% and a range of 2.96 to 3.87, traders should keep an eye on market volatility and consider short-term opportunities around these levels, especially given the heating demand driven by weather conditions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a significant negative shift of -22.82 BCFD, which could impact production planning. Producers should assess their hedging strategies in light of fluctuating demand driven by heating needs and overall market sentiment.
With the bearish sentiment in supply and demand categories, maintaining flexibility in operations and monitoring geopolitical developments will be crucial for navigating potential market shifts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Given the high heating demand indicated by the weather outlook, consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The current neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while prices may remain stable, unexpected shifts could occur due to demand spikes.
It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price increases, especially with the forecasted high heating demand in regions such as the Northeast and Midwest.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with significant factors at play including a negative fundamental balance and high heating demand due to current weather patterns. The ML price forecast suggests slight upward movement, but caution is warranted given the bearish sentiment surrounding supply and demand.
Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on market dynamics, while also keeping an eye on the evolving weather forecasts that could shift demand patterns significantly.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.