So - natural gas is one of those lessons in extremes. Right now, we are in the goldilocks part of the story. 5.50 in late december was too big, 3.14 (imho) is too small. 3.599-3.67 feels to be a magnet but the momentum is pulling us further down the vortex. After 3.34 went, there is a lot of technical pull down to 2.70 (ironically where Mar & Apr contracts are trading) - so we have a lot of technical momentum pulling us further down. On the fundamental side, we are bearish right now but is it really that bad??? We are currently only slightly above the 5 year average and in fact we will be 200 bcf over at the end of this warming period - putting everything on February weather, and in all my years of trading Feb holds a LOT of potential cold. Does not mean it will happen but has the possibility to change winter in just one week. All that said we are resting on the Feb contract at 3.14 and with a lot of technical momentum pulling natty down, I think it’s too far too fast and a move back up to 3.599 and 3.67 seem to be in order.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-10 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently stuck in a “Goldilocks” phase, with prices hovering around $3.59, following a decline from late December's $5.50. Recent bearish sentiment is driven by warmer weather forecasts and a loose supply outlook, pushing prices down to a 12-week low. Despite slight inventory draws, market momentum is bearish, hinting at potential further declines to $2.70. However, February could surprise with colder weather, potentially reversing trends. Traders should keep an eye on weather developments and technical signals for a clearer picture.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.17
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.66
MA(20): $3.9
Current Price is 3.17, 9 day MA 3.66, 20 day MA 3.9
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2626
Signal: -0.1662
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 34.06
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 34.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 193,218
Avg (20d): 156,785
Ratio: 1.23
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.39
%D: 7.57
Stochastic %K: 2.39, %D: 7.57. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.72
+DI: 18.76
-DI: 31.08
ADX: 20.72 (+DI: 18.76, -DI: 31.08). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.61
Williams %R: -97.61 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.67
Middle: 3.9
Lower: 3.14
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.67, Middle: 3.9, Lower: 3.14
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
180.0 HDD
-35.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
181.0 HDD
-40.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/03 | 30.0 | 30.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/04 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/05 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/06 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/07 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/08 | 20.0 | 32.0 | -12.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | 23.0 | 32.0 | -9.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 27.0 | 31.0 | -4.0 |
| 01/13 | 22.0 | 30.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/14 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.13
Daily:
0.2 (0.2%)
Weekly:
0.86 (0.88%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.14%)
SP500
6966.28
Daily:
44.82 (0.65%)
Weekly:
64.23 (0.93%)
VIX
14.49
Daily:
-0.96 (-6.21%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-2.75%)
GOLD
4490.3
Daily:
40.6 (0.91%)
Weekly:
53.4 (1.2%)
COPPER
5.86
Daily:
0.11 (1.9%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.16%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,596,169
Change: +62,184
Managed Money
-101,384
Change: -17,419
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
6,639
Change: +11,945
0.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,275
Change: -2,655
9.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,175
Change: +6,754
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: +70,622
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.680 EUR/MWh (+0.153). JKM prices increased to 9.565 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.115 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.680
+0.153Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-10
JKM Prices
9.565
+0.010Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-10
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.115
-1.19%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-10
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
9.9
9.7
9.5
9.2
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.680 |
| MAR 26 | 9.532 |
| APR 26 | 9.228 |
| MAY 26 | 9.073 |
| JUN 26 | 9.071 |
| JUL 26 | 9.066 |
| AUG 26 | 9.099 |
| SEP 26 | 9.188 |
| OCT 26 | 9.206 |
| NOV 26 | 9.295 |
| DEC 26 | 9.384 |
| JAN 27 | 9.450 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.565 |
| MAR 26 | 9.450 |
| APR 26 | 9.185 |
| MAY 26 | 9.085 |
| JUN 26 | 9.180 |
| JUL 26 | 9.290 |
| AUG 26 | 9.430 |
| SEP 26 | 9.410 |
| OCT 26 | 9.370 |
| NOV 26 | 9.365 |
| DEC 26 | 9.720 |
| JAN 27 | 9.855 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
79
Last Updated:
2026-01-10 23:47:35
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (5 articles)
- Crude Sharply Higher on Energy Demand Strength and Index Buying of Oil Futures Barchart
- Crude Rallies on Stronger Energy Demand and Index Buying of Crude Futures Barchart
- Canada Flips to Trade Deficit, Though Exports Beyond U.S. Jump — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Exports Buoyed By Precious Metals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Crude Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil Rises Amid Prospects of Russia-Related Sanctions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises As Trump Said to Back Russia Sanctions Bill — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- European defence stocks hit record high, dollar gains amid geopolitical events Reuters
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.17
Closest Support:
$2.89
8.83% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.51
10.73% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
Support
0.236
$3.51
Resistance
0.382
$3.89
0.5
$4.19
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.17
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-10 23:47:35
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.88%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | $3.2 | $2.74 | $3.66 |
| 2026-01-11 | $3.2 | $2.74 | $3.66 |
| 2026-01-12 | $3.18 | $2.72 | $3.63 |
| 2026-01-13 | $3.18 | $2.72 | $3.64 |
| 2026-01-14 | $3.19 | $2.73 | $3.65 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.88% for the next trading day (2026-01-10), reaching $3.20.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-10 and 2026-01-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~28.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market appears to be in a neutral state, with a technical score of -1/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.89 and resistance at 3.51. The fundamental balance is currently at -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tighter supply situation, potentially leading to upward price movements. The ML price forecast suggests a modest increase of 0.88% with a range of 2.74 to 3.66. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, which could introduce volatility and short-term risks. Traders should monitor for price action around the support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD suggests a tightening supply, which may impact production decisions. Producers should consider adjusting output levels to align with the high heating demand expected across all regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. The bearish sentiment in the market, especially for crude oil and natural gas, may necessitate hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. Keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and news sentiment will be crucial for anticipating market shifts that could affect operations and pricing.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand due to cold weather patterns, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The current bearish market sentiment may lead to price volatility, impacting budgeting and operational costs. It is advisable to assess supply reliability risks given the tightening fundamental balance. Consumers may also want to explore hedging options to manage potential increases in energy prices as demand rises.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a complex interplay of factors. The overall market sentiment is negative, with a sentiment score of -0.367, indicating caution among market participants. The fundamental balance is also bearish at -22.82 BCFD, suggesting a tighter supply situation that could impact prices. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, which could further strain supply. Analysts should closely monitor these trends and consider the implications of geopolitical events on market dynamics, as they could lead to significant shifts in outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.