So - natural gas is one of those lessons in extremes. Right now, we are in the goldilocks part of the story. 5.50 in late december was too big, 3.14 (imho) is too small. 3.599-3.67 feels to be a magnet but the momentum is pulling us further down the vortex. After 3.34 went, there is a lot of technical pull down to 2.70 (ironically where Mar & Apr contracts are trading) - so we have a lot of technical momentum pulling us further down. On the fundamental side, we are bearish right now but is it really that bad??? We are currently only slightly above the 5 year average and in fact we will be 200 bcf over at the end of this warming period - putting everything on February weather, and in all my years of trading Feb holds a LOT of potential cold. Does not mean it will happen but has the possibility to change winter in just one week. All that said we are resting on the Feb contract at 3.14 and with a lot of technical momentum pulling natty down, I think it’s too far too fast and a move back up to 3.599 and 3.67 seem to be in order. The rest of the week is centered at 3.34 as the bull/bear line.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-13 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a "Goldilocks" phase, with prices oscillating around $3.14, amidst bearish fundamentals and technical pressure. Recent weather forecasts predicting colder temperatures have sparked upward momentum, pushing prices up by over 5% recently. However, the market remains cautious, as technical signals suggest a potential drop to $2.70. With a 200 Bcf surplus expected post-warming period, February's unpredictable weather could ignite volatility and spark a price rebound, making it a month to watch closely.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.41
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.46
MA(20): $3.83
Current Price is 3.41, 9 day MA 3.46, 20 day MA 3.83
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2634
Signal: -0.2014
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.05
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.05 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,596
Avg (20d): 151,425
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 17.86
%D: 12.58
Stochastic %K: 17.86, %D: 12.58. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.27
+DI: 17.35
-DI: 28.74
ADX: 21.27 (+DI: 17.35, -DI: 28.74). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -82.14
Williams %R: -82.14 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.62
Middle: 3.83
Lower: 3.04
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.62, Middle: 3.83, Lower: 3.04
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
162.0 HDD
-58.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
207.0 HDD
-17.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/06 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/07 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/08 | 20.0 | 32.0 | -12.0 |
| 01/09 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/10 | 24.0 | 32.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/13 | 22.0 | 30.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/14 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/15 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/18 | 34.0 | 32.0 | +2.0 |
| 01/19 | 35.0 | 33.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.16
Daily:
0.3 (0.3%)
Weekly:
0.48 (0.48%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.8%)
SP500
6963.74
Daily:
-13.53 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
42.81 (0.62%)
VIX
15.98
Daily:
0.86 (5.69%)
Weekly:
0.6 (3.9%)
GOLD
4637.0
Daily:
32.7 (0.71%)
Weekly:
187.7 (4.22%)
COPPER
6.14
Daily:
0.15 (2.56%)
Weekly:
0.33 (5.66%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,596,169
Change: +62,184
Managed Money
-101,384
Change: -17,419
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
6,639
Change: +11,945
0.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,275
Change: -2,655
9.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,175
Change: +6,754
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: +70,622
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.128 EUR/MWh (+0.448). JKM prices increased to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.045). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.518 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.128
+0.448Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-13
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.045Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-13
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.518
-5.11%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.2
10.0
9.7
9.5
9.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 10.128 |
| MAR 26 | 10.135 |
| APR 26 | 9.580 |
| MAY 26 | 9.363 |
| JUN 26 | 9.335 |
| JUL 26 | 9.321 |
| AUG 26 | 9.325 |
| SEP 26 | 9.414 |
| OCT 26 | 9.419 |
| NOV 26 | 9.495 |
| DEC 26 | 9.572 |
| JAN 27 | 9.635 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 9.870 |
| APR 26 | 9.490 |
| MAY 26 | 9.315 |
| JUN 26 | 9.395 |
| JUL 26 | 9.500 |
| AUG 26 | 9.645 |
| SEP 26 | 9.605 |
| OCT 26 | 9.560 |
| NOV 26 | 9.540 |
| DEC 26 | 9.870 |
| JAN 27 | 9.980 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.675
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
52
Last Updated:
2026-01-13 23:47:31
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- Venezuela's 'Proven' Oil Reserves Raises Questions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Oil May Trend Lower, Though Geopolitical Risks Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.41
Closest Support:
$2.89
15.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.51
2.93% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.89
Support
0.236
$3.51
Resistance
0.382
$3.89
0.5
$4.19
0.618
$4.5
0.786
$4.94
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.2
1.618
$7.1
2.0
$8.1
2.618
$9.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-13 23:47:32
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.68%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | $3.4 | $2.93 | $3.86 |
| 2026-01-15 | $3.41 | $2.94 | $3.87 |
| 2026-01-16 | $3.43 | $2.96 | $3.89 |
| 2026-01-17 | $3.41 | $2.95 | $3.88 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.41 | $2.95 | $3.88 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.68% for the next trading day (2026-01-14), reaching $3.40.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-14 and 2026-01-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~27.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support level at 2.89 and a resistance level at 3.51. The fundamental balance is currently at -22.82 BCFD, indicating a decrease in supply. The weather outlook shows significant heating demand across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could support prices in the short term. However, the ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.68% tomorrow, suggesting traders should remain cautious and look for short-term opportunities around the support level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD indicates a tighter supply situation, which may prompt producers to evaluate hedging strategies accordingly. With high heating demand expected, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, producers should consider optimizing production levels to meet this demand. The overall market sentiment remains positive (+0.675), driven by concerns over supply risks and geopolitical tensions, which could favor price stability or increases in the near term.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand due to colder temperatures, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance suggests a tightening supply, which may lead to higher prices. Given the neutral technical outlook and the ML price forecast predicting a slight decline, consumers might want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in the near future.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market dynamics reflect a bullish sentiment overall, with a score of +0.675, driven by supply concerns and weather forecasts favoring heating demand. The fundamental balance is tightening, indicating potential upward pressure on prices. Key drivers include the high heating demand expected in various regions and geopolitical tensions affecting supply. Analysts should monitor these factors closely for potential shifts in market outlook as they may influence price trajectories moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.