So - natural gas is one of those lessons in extremes. Right now, we are in the goldilocks part of the story. 5.50 in late december was too big, 3.14 (imho) is too small. 3.599-3.67 feels to be a magnet but the momentum is pulling us further down the vortex. After 3.34 went, there is a lot of technical pull down to 2.70 (ironically where Mar & Apr contracts are trading) - so we have a lot of technical momentum pulling us further down. On the fundamental side, we are bearish right now but is it really that bad??? We are currently only slightly above the 5 year average and in fact we will be 200 bcf over at the end of this warming period - putting everything on February weather, and in all my years of trading Feb holds a LOT of potential cold. Does not mean it will happen but has the possibility to change winter in just one week. All that said we are resting on the Feb contract at 3.14 and with a lot of technical momentum pulling natty down, I think it’s too far too fast and a move back up to 3.599 and 3.67 seem to be in order. The rest of the week is centered at 3.34 as the bull/bear line. As we entered Wednesday trading - Natty decided to retreat to below a critical 3.127 level which opens up the door to the 2.70. Weather reports are not THAT BAD, but traders are in a negative head space and it will take some bullish surprises on storage to change it. Inventories IMHO are not THAT bearish but winter has not shown up for demand - and it does show!!!
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-14 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently experiencing volatility, hovering around the $3.14 mark. Recent warmer temps and increased storage have sent prices tumbling, with futures dropping 7%. Technical indicators suggest a bearish momentum, with potential targets around $2.70 if the trend continues. However, February weather forecasts could bring unexpected cold, possibly changing the market dynamics. While fundamentals appear weak, the sentiment remains cautious—traders are on the lookout for bullish surprises in upcoming storage reports. Keep your eyes peeled!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.39
MA(20): $3.78
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.39, 20 day MA 3.78
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2841
Signal: -0.2179
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 35.32
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 35.32 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,833
Avg (20d): 152,331
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.61
%D: 12.07
Stochastic %K: 0.61, %D: 12.07. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.51
+DI: 16.9
-DI: 30.55
ADX: 21.51 (+DI: 16.9, -DI: 30.55). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.39
Williams %R: -99.39 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.63
Middle: 3.78
Lower: 2.94
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.63, Middle: 3.78, Lower: 2.94
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
162.0 HDD
-58.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
218.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/07 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/08 | 20.0 | 32.0 | -12.0 |
| 01/09 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/10 | 24.0 | 32.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/14 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/15 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/16 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/17 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/18 | 34.0 | 32.0 | +2.0 |
| 01/19 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/20 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.17
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
0.24 (0.24%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.74%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-1.03%)
SP500
6926.6
Daily:
-37.14 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
5.14 (0.07%)
VIX
16.75
Daily:
0.77 (4.82%)
Weekly:
1.3 (8.41%)
GOLD
4598.2
Daily:
9.0 (0.2%)
Weekly:
148.5 (3.34%)
COPPER
5.96
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.16%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.72%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,596,169
Change: +62,184
Managed Money
-101,384
Change: -17,419
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
6,639
Change: +11,945
0.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,275
Change: -2,655
9.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,175
Change: +6,754
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: +70,622
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.365 EUR/MWh (+0.237). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.755 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.365
+0.237Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-14
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-14
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.755
-7.28%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-14
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.6
10.2
9.8
9.5
9.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 10.365 |
| MAR 26 | 10.445 |
| APR 26 | 9.612 |
| MAY 26 | 9.319 |
| JUN 26 | 9.270 |
| JUL 26 | 9.244 |
| AUG 26 | 9.254 |
| SEP 26 | 9.349 |
| OCT 26 | 9.389 |
| NOV 26 | 9.465 |
| DEC 26 | 9.563 |
| JAN 27 | 9.628 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 9.895 |
| APR 26 | 9.450 |
| MAY 26 | 9.270 |
| JUN 26 | 9.330 |
| JUL 26 | 9.390 |
| AUG 26 | 9.520 |
| SEP 26 | 9.465 |
| OCT 26 | 9.510 |
| NOV 26 | 9.530 |
| DEC 26 | 9.830 |
| JAN 27 | 9.990 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
79
Last Updated:
2026-01-14 23:47:29
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Analysts Call For Potential Record Ethanol Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Oil Seen Only a Small Risk to Canadian Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Iran Supply Disruptions Fears After U.S. Tariffs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- Venezuela's 'Proven' Oil Reserves Raises Questions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Oil May Trend Lower, Though Geopolitical Risks Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$3.09
0.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.66
18.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.09
Support
0.236
$3.66
Resistance
0.382
$4.01
0.5
$4.29
0.618
$4.58
0.786
$4.98
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.15
1.618
$6.98
2.0
$7.9
2.618
$9.39
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.12
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-14 23:47:29
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.33%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | $3.16 | $2.69 | $3.63 |
| 2026-01-16 | $3.18 | $2.71 | $3.65 |
| 2026-01-17 | $3.15 | $2.68 | $3.62 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.14 | $2.67 | $3.62 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.16 | $2.69 | $3.64 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.33% for the next trading day (2026-01-15), reaching $3.16.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-15 and 2026-01-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~29.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tighter supply situation. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.09 and resistance at 3.66. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 1.33%, suggesting short-term opportunities for upward movement. However, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating caution is warranted.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the fundamental balance reflecting a significant drop of -15.30 BCFD, producers may need to reassess production levels to align with the current demand trends. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while there is room for price increases, caution is advised. Producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to manage price volatility, especially given the geopolitical risks affecting crude oil prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to high heating demand as indicated by a weather outlook showing significant heating degree days (HDD) across regions. The Northeast and Midwest are particularly affected, with HDDs of 48.2 and 51.5 respectively. This high demand could lead to increased prices, so consumers should consider procurement strategies or hedging to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently in a neutral state, with mixed signals from various indicators. The fundamental balance is negative, reflecting tightening supply conditions, while the ML price forecast suggests a potential short-term uptick. Analysts should focus on the geopolitical tensions impacting crude oil and the significant heating demand due to weather patterns, as these are the strongest driving factors influencing the market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.