So - natural gas is one of those lessons in extremes. Right now, we are in the goldilocks part of the story. 5.50 in late december was too big, 3.14 (imho) is too small. 3.599-3.67 feels to be a magnet but the momentum is pulling us further down the vortex. After 3.34 went, there is a lot of technical pull down to 2.70 (ironically where Mar & Apr contracts are trading) - so we have a lot of technical momentum pulling us further down. On the fundamental side, we are bearish right now but is it really that bad??? We are currently only slightly above the 5 year average and in fact we will be 200 bcf over at the end of this warming period - putting everything on February weather, and in all my years of trading Feb holds a LOT of potential cold. Does not mean it will happen but has the possibility to change winter in just one week. All that said we are resting on the Feb contract at 3.14 and with a lot of technical momentum pulling natty down, I think it’s too far too fast and a move back up to 3.599 and 3.67 seem to be in order. The rest of the week is centered at 3.34 as the bull/bear line. As we entered Wednesday trading - Natty decided to retreat to below a critical 3.127 level which opens up the door to the 2.70. Weather reports are not THAT BAD, but traders are in a negative head space and it will take some bullish surprises on storage to change it. Inventories IMHO are not THAT bearish but winter has not shown up for demand - and it does show!!! Thursday is opening up closer to the 3.247 support/resistance level so for the rest of the week watching 3.247 as resistance and 3.127 as support.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-15 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is navigating a tricky landscape with current prices hovering around $3.14, influenced by bearish sentiment and technical momentum pulling them lower. Recent forecasts for below-normal temperatures have provided some upward pressure, yet prices fell to a 13-week low amid increased storage. With inventories slightly above the 5-year average, traders remain cautious. The critical levels to watch are $3.34 as the bull/bear line and $2.70 for potential downside. February's weather could shift dynamics rapidly—stay tuned!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.16
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.75
Current Price is 3.16, 9 day MA 3.34, 20 day MA 3.75
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.291
Signal: -0.2323
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 36.71
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 36.71 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,850
Avg (20d): 155,306
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 5.75
%D: 9.0
Stochastic %K: 5.75, %D: 9.0. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.13
+DI: 16.49
-DI: 30.3
ADX: 22.13 (+DI: 16.49, -DI: 30.3). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -94.25
Williams %R: -94.25 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.63
Middle: 3.75
Lower: 2.87
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.63, Middle: 3.75, Lower: 2.87
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
162.0 HDD
-57.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
231.0 HDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/08 | 20.0 | 32.0 | -12.0 |
| 01/09 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/10 | 24.0 | 32.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 30.0 | 32.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/16 | 29.0 | 33.0 | -4.0 |
| 01/17 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/18 | 35.0 | 32.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.28
Daily:
0.15 (0.15%)
Weekly:
0.15 (0.15%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.26%)
SP500
6944.47
Daily:
17.87 (0.26%)
Weekly:
-21.81 (-0.31%)
VIX
15.84
Daily:
-0.91 (-5.43%)
Weekly:
1.35 (9.32%)
GOLD
4602.6
Daily:
-23.7 (-0.51%)
Weekly:
112.3 (2.5%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
-0.1 (-1.62%)
Weekly:
0.06 (0.96%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,596,169
Change: +62,184
Managed Money
-101,384
Change: -17,419
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
6,639
Change: +11,945
0.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,275
Change: -2,655
9.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,175
Change: +6,754
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-06
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,968,879
Change: +70,622
Managed Money
24,528
Change: +8,785
1.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
223,120
Change: -12,485
11.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-293,886
Change: +11,972
-14.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.443 EUR/MWh (+0.078). JKM prices decreased to 9.595 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.848 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.443
+0.078Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-15
JKM Prices
9.595
-0.015Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-15
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.848
-8.12%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-15
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.7
10.3
9.9
9.5
9.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 10.443 |
| MAR 26 | 10.585 |
| APR 26 | 9.622 |
| MAY 26 | 9.313 |
| JUN 26 | 9.263 |
| JUL 26 | 9.220 |
| AUG 26 | 9.223 |
| SEP 26 | 9.314 |
| OCT 26 | 9.321 |
| NOV 26 | 9.394 |
| DEC 26 | 9.489 |
| JAN 27 | 9.557 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.595 |
| MAR 26 | 10.070 |
| APR 26 | 9.440 |
| MAY 26 | 9.260 |
| JUN 26 | 9.330 |
| JUL 26 | 9.375 |
| AUG 26 | 9.465 |
| SEP 26 | 9.415 |
| OCT 26 | 9.455 |
| NOV 26 | 9.450 |
| DEC 26 | 9.720 |
| JAN 27 | 9.885 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
98
Last Updated:
2026-01-15 23:47:50
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns Reuters
- Analysts Call For Potential Record Ethanol Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Oil Seen Only a Small Risk to Canadian Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Iran Supply Disruptions Fears After U.S. Tariffs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Barchart
- Venezuela's 'Proven' Oil Reserves Raises Questions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Oil Extends Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Slips But Rising Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.16
Closest Support:
$3.07
2.85% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.64
15.19% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.07
Support
0.236
$3.64
Resistance
0.382
$4.0
0.5
$4.28
0.618
$4.57
0.786
$4.98
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.16
1.618
$7.0
2.0
$7.92
2.618
$9.42
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-15 23:47:51
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.71%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | $3.15 | $2.69 | $3.61 |
| 2026-01-17 | $3.12 | $2.66 | $3.58 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.11 | $2.65 | $3.57 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.13 | $2.67 | $3.59 |
| 2026-01-20 | $3.13 | $2.67 | $3.59 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.71% for the next trading day (2026-01-16), reaching $3.15.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-16 and 2026-01-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~29.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support at 3.07 and resistance at 3.64, indicating potential price range limits. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend of 0.71%, presenting short-term opportunities. However, the fundamental balance is negative at -22.82 BCFD, which could introduce volatility. Monitor these levels closely for trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the current fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD for production planning. With high heating demand expected, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, there may be opportunities to optimize production schedules. The neutral market sentiment suggests that hedging strategies may need to be adjusted cautiously. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape appears stable, which could affect crude oil pricing; however, ongoing monitoring is essential to adapt to any shifts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the current negative fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD. With high heating demand forecasted, especially in northern regions, procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to ensure supply reliability. The weather outlook indicates significantly high heating demand, suggesting that prices may rise in the short term. Consider hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment across various indicators. The fundamental balance is notably negative at -22.82 BCFD, indicating bearish pressures on supply. High heating demand in key regions adds complexity to the outlook, making it crucial to monitor weather patterns closely. Overall, while short-term price forecasts show a slight upward trend, the underlying fundamentals suggest caution in market positioning.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.