Natural Gas had quite the week starting out at 3.24 and launching up to 3.449 and then back down to the 3.127 support line. Many of the fundamental signs are pointed down as LNG exports have dropped, Canadian imports are rising, Production staying elevated, and meanwhile Demand (or should I say lack of winter) is no where to be found. In 2025, we had one week that truly made winter and traders are losing hope as we approach the end of January that the week is in the forecast. Remember this - as a weather expert once told me: Beyond 24 Hours, we don’t really know. As for right now - the key levels I’m watching are 3.127 and 3.00 - if those go, then we have unfinished business around 2.70. But if 3.34 is recaptured - we could launch back up to 3.67 where we also have unfinished business. The outlook on Friday is further down - but weather forecasts over the weekend will guide this one!
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-16 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has had a rollercoaster week, starting at $3.24, peaking at $3.449, and retreating to the $3.127 support line. Key fundamentals are bearish: declining LNG exports, rising Canadian imports, and elevated production amidst a lack of winter demand. Market sentiment is cautious as forecasts suggest minimal cold weather ahead. Watch for critical levels at $3.127 and $3.00—breaching these could send prices to $2.70, while reclaiming $3.34 might push us back to $3.67. Stay tuned!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.11
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.29
MA(20): $3.7
Current Price is 3.11, 9 day MA 3.29, 20 day MA 3.7
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3008
Signal: -0.2464
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 35.51
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 35.51 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 129,311
Avg (20d): 162,987
Ratio: 0.79
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 6.01
%D: 5.42
Stochastic %K: 6.01, %D: 5.42. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.91
+DI: 15.31
-DI: 29.03
ADX: 22.91 (+DI: 15.31, -DI: 29.03). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.99
Williams %R: -93.99 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.62
Middle: 3.7
Lower: 2.78
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.62, Middle: 3.7, Lower: 2.78
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
165.0 HDD
-54.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
232.0 HDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | 20.0 | 32.0 | -12.0 |
| 01/09 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/10 | 24.0 | 32.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16 | 29.0 | 33.0 | -4.0 |
| 01/17 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/18 | 34.0 | 32.0 | +2.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 38.0 | 33.0 | +5.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/22 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.38
Daily:
0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly:
0.51 (0.52%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
15.86
Daily:
0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.74 (4.89%)
GOLD
4601.1
Daily:
-15.2 (-0.33%)
Weekly:
-3.2 (-0.07%)
COPPER
5.85
Daily:
-0.1 (-1.67%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-2.28%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.656 EUR/MWh (+0.213). JKM prices increased to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.046 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.656
+0.213Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-16
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.015Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-16
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.046
-9.82%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-16
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.7
10.3
9.8
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 10.656 |
| MAR 26 | 10.979 |
| APR 26 | 10.006 |
| MAY 26 | 9.663 |
| JUN 26 | 9.605 |
| JUL 26 | 9.561 |
| AUG 26 | 9.548 |
| SEP 26 | 9.646 |
| OCT 26 | 9.575 |
| NOV 26 | 9.585 |
| DEC 26 | 9.663 |
| JAN 27 | 9.729 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 10.225 |
| APR 26 | 9.745 |
| MAY 26 | 9.550 |
| JUN 26 | 9.615 |
| JUL 26 | 9.685 |
| AUG 26 | 9.775 |
| SEP 26 | 9.720 |
| OCT 26 | 9.595 |
| NOV 26 | 9.660 |
| DEC 26 | 9.855 |
| JAN 27 | 10.050 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
90
Last Updated:
2026-01-16 23:47:50
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns Reuters
- Analysts Call For Potential Record Ethanol Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Venezuela Oil Seen Only a Small Risk to Canadian Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Iran Supply Disruptions Fears After U.S. Tariffs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Crude Futures Gain on Iran Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risks Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.11
Closest Support:
$3.01
3.22% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.59
15.43% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$3.59
Resistance
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-16 23:47:50
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.71%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | $3.15 | $2.69 | $3.61 |
| 2026-01-17 | $3.12 | $2.66 | $3.58 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.11 | $2.65 | $3.57 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.13 | $2.67 | $3.59 |
| 2026-01-20 | $3.13 | $2.67 | $3.59 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.71% for the next trading day (2026-01-16), reaching $3.15.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-16 and 2026-01-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~29.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support at 3.01 and resistance at 3.59, which could guide trading strategies in the near term.
The fundamental balance is currently at -22.82 BCFD, reflecting a significant change of -15.30. This may suggest a tightening supply situation that could influence price movements.
With the heating demand expected to be high due to increased heating degree days (HDD), there may be upward pressure on prices despite the overall bearish sentiment in the market, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.333.
Short-term opportunities may arise as ML price forecasts indicate a potential increase of 0.71% with a range of 2.69 to 3.61.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment is bearish, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.400. This suggests that producers may face challenges in pricing their output effectively.
Given the fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with anticipated demand fluctuations, particularly in the heating sector.
Producers may also want to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, especially in light of the overall market sentiment and geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, especially with the current high heating demand and low cooling demand forecasted. This may lead to increased energy costs during peak heating periods.
With the fundamental balance reflecting a significant change, there may be supply reliability risks that could impact procurement strategies. Consumers are advised to monitor market conditions closely.
The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas could provide a window for consumers to negotiate better pricing or consider longer-term contracts to stabilize costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with bearish sentiment prevailing overall. The technical indicators show a neutral stance, while the fundamental balance indicates tightening supply conditions.
Key drivers include the high heating demand due to significant HDD across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. This could lead to shifts in market dynamics as demand outstrips supply in the short term.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical factors impacting crude oil and the sentiment surrounding natural gas, as these will likely influence market forecasts and pricing strategies moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.