Natural Gas had quite the week starting out at 3.24 and launching up to 3.449 and then back down to the 3.127 support line. Many of the fundamental signs are pointed down as LNG exports have dropped, Canadian imports are rising, Production staying elevated, and meanwhile Demand (or should I say lack of winter) is no where to be found. In 2025, we had one week that truly made winter and traders are losing hope as we approach the end of January that the week is in the forecast. Remember this - as a weather expert once told me: Beyond 24 Hours, we don’t really know. As for right now - the key levels I’m watching are 3.127 and 3.00 - if those go, then we have unfinished business around 2.70. But if 3.34 is recaptured - we could launch back up to 3.67 where we also have unfinished business. The outlook on Friday is further down - but weather forecasts over the weekend will guide this one!
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-17 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has experienced a rollercoaster week, starting at $3.24, peaking at $3.449, and settling around the crucial support level of $3.127. With LNG exports declining and Canadian imports rising, supply pressures loom large. The winter weather forecast appears lackluster, leading to bearish sentiment. Key price levels to watch are $3.127 and $3.00, with potential unfinished business around $2.70 if breached. Conversely, a recovery above $3.34 could spark a rise to $3.67. Keep an eye on weather updates!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.29
MA(20): $3.7
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.29, 20 day MA 3.7
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3013
Signal: -0.2465
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 35.42
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 35.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 180,723
Avg (20d): 165,557
Ratio: 1.09
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 5.66
%D: 5.31
Stochastic %K: 5.66, %D: 5.31. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.91
+DI: 15.31
-DI: 29.03
ADX: 22.91 (+DI: 15.31, -DI: 29.03). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -94.34
Williams %R: -94.34 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.62
Middle: 3.7
Lower: 2.78
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.62, Middle: 3.7, Lower: 2.78
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
174.0 HDD
-45.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
232.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | 21.0 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 01/10 | 24.0 | 32.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/17 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 38.0 | 33.0 | +5.0 |
| 01/21 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/22 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/23 | 32.0 | 31.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.07 (0.07%)
Weekly:
0.53 (0.54%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
15.86
Daily:
0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.74 (4.89%)
GOLD
4588.4
Daily:
-27.9 (-0.6%)
Weekly:
-15.9 (-0.35%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
-0.16 (-2.68%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-3.28%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.258 EUR/MWh (+0.602). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.648 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.258
+0.602Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-17
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-17
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.648
-14.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-17
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.6
10.9
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.258 |
| MAR 26 | 12.119 |
| APR 26 | 10.848 |
| MAY 26 | 10.330 |
| JUN 26 | 10.228 |
| JUL 26 | 10.163 |
| AUG 26 | 10.155 |
| SEP 26 | 10.264 |
| OCT 26 | 10.149 |
| NOV 26 | 10.134 |
| DEC 26 | 10.207 |
| JAN 27 | 10.274 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 11.155 |
| APR 26 | 10.570 |
| MAY 26 | 10.195 |
| JUN 26 | 10.250 |
| JUL 26 | 10.325 |
| AUG 26 | 10.375 |
| SEP 26 | 10.365 |
| OCT 26 | 10.185 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.375 |
| JAN 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
68
Last Updated:
2026-01-17 23:48:01
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Oil Likely Rangebound Unless Chinese Demand Recovers, Supply Faces Shortfall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns Reuters
- European Natural Gas Prices Hold Above 31 Euros on Cold Weather, Iran Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (3 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Tread Water Ahead of Storage Data — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Plummet on Warmer US Temps and Increased Storage Barchart
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Sink Ahead of Storage Report — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Geopolitical Events Keep Oil Markets Volatile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease in Iran Barchart
- Geopolitical Risk Pushes Crude Oil Prices Higher Barchart
- Crude Futures Gain on Iran Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$3.01
2.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.59
15.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$3.59
Resistance
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-17 23:48:02
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.85%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.07 | $2.62 | $3.51 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.08 | $2.64 | $3.53 |
| 2026-01-20 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-21 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.85% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $3.08.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~28.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a neutral technical interpretation with a score of -1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and resistance level at 3.59, indicating potential price bounds. The ML price forecast suggests a downward trend of 0.85%, with a range of 2.63 to 3.52. This could lead to short-term opportunities for traders seeking to capitalize on volatility, particularly around these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD and a significant change of -15.30, producers may need to adjust their production planning to address potential supply constraints. The bearish market sentiment (-0.333) indicates that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price declines. The high heating demand indicated by the weather outlook suggests that maintaining production levels may be crucial to meet consumer needs, especially in heating-dominated regions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil due to the current market sentiment. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand across all regions, which could affect supply reliability. Procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to account for potential price increases, especially if the demand continues to rise in heating-dominated areas.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a bearish overall sentiment and a negative fundamental balance. The technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, while the weather outlook indicates strong heating demand. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and supply chain dynamics that may impact prices, especially given the increased volatility in crude oil markets.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.