Natural Gas had quite the week starting out at 3.24 and launching up to 3.449 and then back down to the 3.127 support line. Many of the fundamental signs are pointed down as LNG exports have dropped, Canadian imports are rising, Production staying elevated, and meanwhile Demand (or should I say lack of winter) is no where to be found. In 2025, we had one week that truly made winter and traders are losing hope as we approach the end of January that the week is in the forecast. Remember this - as a weather expert once told me: Beyond 24 Hours, we don’t really know. As for right now - the key levels I’m watching are 3.127 and 3.00 - if those go, then we have unfinished business around 2.70. But if 3.34 is recaptured - we could launch back up to 3.67 where we also have unfinished business. The outlook on Friday is further down - but weather forecasts over the weekend will guide this one!
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-18 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has experienced volatility recently, starting the week at $3.24, peaking at $3.449, and then retreating to $3.127. Key drivers include a decline in LNG exports, rising Canadian imports, and elevated production, while demand remains weak amid unseasonably warm weather. Key support levels are at $3.127 and $3.00, with a potential drop toward $2.70 if breached. Conversely, reclaiming $3.34 could see a bounce back to $3.67. Weather forecasts will be crucial in shaping short-term price movements.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.26
MA(20): $3.66
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.26, 20 day MA 3.66
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3037
Signal: -0.2579
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 35.42
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 35.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 25,812
Avg (20d): 158,945
Ratio: 0.16
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 8.29
%D: 7.02
Stochastic %K: 8.29, %D: 7.02. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.96
+DI: 21.39
-DI: 25.89
ADX: 21.96 (+DI: 21.39, -DI: 25.89). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -91.71
Williams %R: -91.71 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.61
Middle: 3.66
Lower: 2.71
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.61, Middle: 3.66, Lower: 2.71
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
184.0 HDD
-37.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
236.0 HDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | 24.0 | 32.0 | -8.0 |
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/22 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/23 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 01/24 | 34.0 | 31.0 | +3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.15
Daily:
-0.24 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.02%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
15.86
Daily:
0.02 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.74 (4.89%)
GOLD
4668.2
Daily:
79.8 (1.74%)
Weekly:
79.0 (1.72%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.11 (1.95%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.15%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.258 EUR/MWh (+0.602). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.648 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.258
+0.602Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-18
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-18
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.648
-14.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.6
10.9
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.258 |
| MAR 26 | 12.119 |
| APR 26 | 10.848 |
| MAY 26 | 10.330 |
| JUN 26 | 10.228 |
| JUL 26 | 10.163 |
| AUG 26 | 10.155 |
| SEP 26 | 10.264 |
| OCT 26 | 10.149 |
| NOV 26 | 10.134 |
| DEC 26 | 10.207 |
| JAN 27 | 10.274 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 11.155 |
| APR 26 | 10.570 |
| MAY 26 | 10.195 |
| JUN 26 | 10.250 |
| JUL 26 | 10.325 |
| AUG 26 | 10.375 |
| SEP 26 | 10.365 |
| OCT 26 | 10.185 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.375 |
| JAN 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
47
Last Updated:
2026-01-18 23:48:04
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.1
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$3.01
2.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.59
15.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$3.59
Resistance
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-18 23:48:04
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.83%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.07 | $2.62 | $3.51 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.08 | $2.64 | $3.53 |
| 2026-01-20 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-21 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.83% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $3.08.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~28.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a neutral technical outlook, with a score of -1/5, indicating potential indecision in price movement. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01 while resistance is noted at 3.59. Traders should watch for price action around these levels for potential breakout or reversal signals.
The fundamental balance is reported at -22.82 BCFD, showing a significant decrease of -15.30, which could imply tightening supply. This may lead to price volatility in the short term, particularly with the upcoming high heating demand forecast across regions.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.83%, suggesting caution in bullish positions. Overall, traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities while managing risks associated with the current market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD indicates a tightening market, which may affect production planning. Producers should assess their output levels in light of the high heating demand expected, especially in the Northeast and Midwest regions.
Given the neutral market sentiment and the recent geopolitical developments affecting crude oil, hedging strategies may need to be adjusted to mitigate potential price volatility. The sentiment around natural gas remains positive, which could provide opportunities for strategic positioning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The negative balance suggests supply tightness which could impact reliability and pricing.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline, which may provide a brief window for procurement strategies. However, consumers must remain cautious of the overall market sentiment and monitor supply chain dynamics closely.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, indicating supply constraints. The high heating demand forecast across multiple regions is a significant bullish factor, while the ML price forecast suggests a bearish short-term outlook.
Analysts should focus on the interplay of these factors, particularly the regional heating demand and the geopolitical sentiment surrounding crude oil prices. This convergence of data may signal potential shifts in market dynamics, warranting close monitoring for future outlook adjustments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.