Natural Gas had quite the week starting out at 3.24 and launching up to 3.449 and then back down to the 3.127 support line. Many of the fundamental signs are pointed down as LNG exports have dropped, Canadian imports are rising, Production staying elevated, and meanwhile Demand (or should I say lack of winter) is no where to be found. In 2025, we had one week that truly made winter and traders are losing hope as we approach the end of January that the week is in the forecast. Remember this - as a weather expert once told me: Beyond 24 Hours, we don’t really know. As for right now - the key levels I’m watching are 3.127 and 3.00 - if those go, then we have unfinished business around 2.70. But if 3.34 is recaptured - we could launch back up to 3.67 where we also have unfinished business. Weather runs over the weekend created a big shift in demand models from Jan 20-30 is a game changer (much like the one week game changer in Jan-2025). As we have said it just takes one week to save winter and we have a big change. 3.449 is the key support right now while 3.599 and 3.679 are likely next step targets. TLDR: fundamentals today are bearish, but forecast for the end of Jan are VERY bullish.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-19 17:13
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices had a rollercoaster week, starting at $3.24, peaking at $3.449, and retreating to the critical support level of $3.127. Fundamentals lean bearish with declining LNG exports, rising Canadian imports, and mild winter demand. However, a sudden Arctic blast boosted prices by 17%, showcasing the market's volatility. Key levels to monitor are $3.127 and $3.34; breaking these could lead to significant movements. While bearish signals dominate, a colder forecast for late January could flip sentiment bullish!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.57
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.32
MA(20): $3.68
Current Price is 3.57, 9 day MA 3.32, 20 day MA 3.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2667
Signal: -0.2505
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 125,276
Avg (20d): 163,918
Ratio: 0.76
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 47.95
%D: 20.24
Stochastic %K: 47.95, %D: 20.24. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.35
+DI: 24.42
-DI: 24.9
ADX: 21.35 (+DI: 24.42, -DI: 24.9). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -52.05
Williams %R: -52.05 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.6
Middle: 3.68
Lower: 2.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.6, Middle: 3.68, Lower: 2.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
192.0 HDD
-30.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
248.0 HDD
+24.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/22 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/23 | 35.0 | 31.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/24 | 37.0 | 31.0 | +6.0 |
| 01/25 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.26 (0.27%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
18.84
Daily:
2.98 (18.79%)
Weekly:
2.86 (17.9%)
GOLD
4676.7
Daily:
88.3 (1.92%)
Weekly:
87.5 (1.91%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
0.12 (2.02%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.258 EUR/MWh (+0.602). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.648 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.258
+0.602Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-19
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-19
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.648
-14.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.6
10.9
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.258 |
| MAR 26 | 12.119 |
| APR 26 | 10.848 |
| MAY 26 | 10.330 |
| JUN 26 | 10.228 |
| JUL 26 | 10.163 |
| AUG 26 | 10.155 |
| SEP 26 | 10.264 |
| OCT 26 | 10.149 |
| NOV 26 | 10.134 |
| DEC 26 | 10.207 |
| JAN 27 | 10.274 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 11.155 |
| APR 26 | 10.570 |
| MAY 26 | 10.195 |
| JUN 26 | 10.250 |
| JUL 26 | 10.325 |
| AUG 26 | 10.375 |
| SEP 26 | 10.365 |
| OCT 26 | 10.185 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.375 |
| JAN 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
37
Last Updated:
2026-01-19 17:13:30
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.3
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.57
Closest Support:
$3.01
15.69% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.59
0.56% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$3.59
Resistance
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-19 17:13:31
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.89%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.07 | $2.62 | $3.51 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.08 | $2.64 | $3.53 |
| 2026-01-20 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-21 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.89% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $3.08.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~28.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support is set at 3.01, while resistance is at 3.59. Traders should watch for potential volatility in the short term given the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline of 0.89%. Opportunities may arise around the support level, but caution is advised as the overall market sentiment remains neutral.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation which may affect production strategies. Given the strong heating demand across all regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, producers should consider adjusting their output to meet this demand. The neutral news sentiment suggests no immediate market shocks, but ongoing monitoring of market conditions will be crucial for effective hedging strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the outlook indicating high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The fundamental balance deficit may lead to supply reliability risks, especially during peak demand periods. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies in procurement to mitigate risks associated with price volatility as the market sentiment remains neutral.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market environment displays a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance indicating a significant deficit. The weather forecast points to dominant heating demand across all regions, which is likely to influence market dynamics. Traders should be aware of the risks associated with the potential price declines as indicated by the ML forecast. Overall, while the technical indicators suggest a cautious approach, the underlying demand dynamics could shift the outlook if supply constraints persist.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.