Natural Gas had quite the week starting out at 3.24 and launching up to 3.449 and then back down to the 3.127 support line. Many of the fundamental signs are pointed down as LNG exports have dropped, Canadian imports are rising, Production staying elevated, and meanwhile Demand (or should I say lack of winter) is no where to be found. In 2025, we had one week that truly made winter and traders are losing hope as we approach the end of January that the week is in the forecast. Remember this - as a weather expert once told me: Beyond 24 Hours, we don’t really know. As for right now - the key levels I’m watching are 3.127 and 3.00 - if those go, then we have unfinished business around 2.70. But if 3.34 is recaptured - we could launch back up to 3.67 where we also have unfinished business. Weather runs over the weekend created a big shift in demand models from Jan 20-30 is a game changer (much like the one week game changer in Jan-2025). As we have said it just takes one week to save winter and we have a big change. 3.449 is the key support right now while 3.599 and 3.679 are likely next step targets. TLDR: fundamentals today are bearish, but forecast for the end of Jan are VERY bullish.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-19 17:35
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas had a rollercoaster week, starting at $3.24, peaking at $3.449, and settling around the critical support of $3.127. Key fundamentals remain bearish with rising Canadian imports and elevated production, while LNG exports have dipped. However, an arctic weather shift could potentially alter demand dynamics positively as we near the end of January, reminiscent of past winter surprises. Watch for critical levels: a drop below $3.00 may lead to $2.70, while reclaiming $3.34 opens the door to $3.67.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.57
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.32
MA(20): $3.68
Current Price is 3.57, 9 day MA 3.32, 20 day MA 3.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2667
Signal: -0.2505
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 125,276
Avg (20d): 163,918
Ratio: 0.76
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 47.95
%D: 20.24
Stochastic %K: 47.95, %D: 20.24. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.35
+DI: 24.42
-DI: 24.9
ADX: 21.35 (+DI: 24.42, -DI: 24.9). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -52.05
Williams %R: -52.05 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.6
Middle: 3.68
Lower: 2.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.6, Middle: 3.68, Lower: 2.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
192.0 HDD
-30.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
248.0 HDD
+24.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | 27.0 | 32.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/22 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/23 | 35.0 | 31.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/24 | 37.0 | 31.0 | +6.0 |
| 01/25 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.39
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.26 (0.27%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
0.07 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6940.01
Daily:
-4.46 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-37.26 (-0.53%)
VIX
18.84
Daily:
2.98 (18.79%)
Weekly:
2.86 (17.9%)
GOLD
4676.7
Daily:
88.3 (1.92%)
Weekly:
87.5 (1.91%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
0.12 (2.02%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.258 EUR/MWh (+0.602). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.648 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.258
+0.602Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-19
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-19
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.648
-14.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.6
10.9
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.258 |
| MAR 26 | 12.119 |
| APR 26 | 10.848 |
| MAY 26 | 10.330 |
| JUN 26 | 10.228 |
| JUL 26 | 10.163 |
| AUG 26 | 10.155 |
| SEP 26 | 10.264 |
| OCT 26 | 10.149 |
| NOV 26 | 10.134 |
| DEC 26 | 10.207 |
| JAN 27 | 10.274 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 11.155 |
| APR 26 | 10.570 |
| MAY 26 | 10.195 |
| JUN 26 | 10.250 |
| JUL 26 | 10.325 |
| AUG 26 | 10.375 |
| SEP 26 | 10.365 |
| OCT 26 | 10.185 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.375 |
| JAN 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.133
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
37
Last Updated:
2026-01-19 17:35:05
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Global Crude Supply Enough to Absorb Any Iran Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Likely Rangebound Unless Chinese Demand Recovers, Supply Faces Shortfall — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.57
Closest Support:
$3.01
15.69% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.59
0.56% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$3.59
Resistance
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-19 17:35:06
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.89%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-18 | $3.07 | $2.62 | $3.51 |
| 2026-01-19 | $3.08 | $2.64 | $3.53 |
| 2026-01-20 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
| 2026-01-21 | $3.08 | $2.63 | $3.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.89% for the next trading day (2026-01-17), reaching $3.08.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-17 and 2026-01-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~28.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. Fibonacci levels show support at 3.01 and resistance at 3.59. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.89% in the next day, indicating short-term volatility may be limited. Traders should be cautious of price movements within the established range of 2.63 to 3.52, and consider potential risks related to the neutral sentiment in news articles, which may lead to unpredictable market behavior.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply. This could impact production planning, as producers may need to adjust output to align with demand. The neutral overall market sentiment, coupled with specific bearish sentiments in supply news, suggests a cautious approach to hedging strategies. Monitoring geopolitical developments, especially concerning crude oil, will be essential to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a strong emphasis on heating demand across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The high heating degree days (HDD) forecast suggests that demand will remain elevated, potentially leading to supply reliability risks. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging to mitigate any unexpected price increases in the near term, especially with the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a slight bearish outlook driven by fundamental supply constraints and mixed news sentiment. The key driving factors include the significant deficit in supply and the prevailing heating demand. Analysts should closely monitor the evolving supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors that could influence market sentiments and pricing trends in the coming weeks. The potential for range-bound trading is evident, with critical levels established at 3.01 and 3.59.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.