Many of TODAYS fundamental signs are pointed down as LNG exports have dropped, Canadian imports are rising, Production staying elevated, and meanwhile Demand (or should I say lack of winter) is no where to be found. In 2025, we had one week that truly made winter and traders are losing hope as we approach the end of January that the week is in the forecast. Remember this - as a weather expert once told me: Beyond 24 Hours, we don’t really know. This all changed over the weekend with the forecast of the next 10 days to be in the top 5 storage draws EVER for the week ending Jan 30th. This means we will have a significant shift in storage based on this one week. Traders responded with a massive short squeeze (they have been getting short over the last month), and now we are pushing $4 after nearly testing $3. Near term I expect a retracement down to 3.67, but there is some unfinished business at 4.337 that we’re watching.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-20 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently soared by 26% to a three-week high, driven primarily by forecasts of frigid weather and short-covering activity. Despite earlier bearish fundamentals, including rising Canadian imports and elevated production, the impending cold snap has sparked renewed optimism among traders. With storage draws expected to be significant, this weather-induced rally comes at a critical juncture. Watch for price retracement towards $3.67, with potential unfinished business at $4.337—it's a rollercoaster ride in the gas market!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.94
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.36
MA(20): $3.7
Current Price is 3.94, 9 day MA 3.36, 20 day MA 3.7
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2367
Signal: -0.2445
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.6
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.6 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,650
Avg (20d): 155,884
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 80.09
%D: 30.95
Stochastic %K: 80.09, %D: 30.95. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.91
+DI: 28.27
-DI: 23.63
ADX: 21.91 (+DI: 28.27, -DI: 23.63). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -19.91
Williams %R: -19.91 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.62
Middle: 3.7
Lower: 2.78
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.62, Middle: 3.7, Lower: 2.78
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
198.0 HDD
-24.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
265.0 HDD
+42.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/22 | 30.0 | 32.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
| 01/24 | 45.0 | 31.0 | +14.0 |
| 01/25 | 44.0 | 31.0 | +13.0 |
| 01/26 | 40.0 | 32.0 | +8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.6
Daily:
-0.79 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
-0.53 (-0.53%)
US_10Y
4.3
Daily:
0.06 (1.51%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.97%)
SP500
6796.86
Daily:
-143.15 (-2.06%)
Weekly:
-166.88 (-2.4%)
VIX
20.09
Daily:
4.23 (26.67%)
Weekly:
4.11 (25.72%)
GOLD
4861.1
Daily:
272.7 (5.94%)
Weekly:
271.9 (5.92%)
COPPER
5.83
Daily:
0.05 (0.78%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-2.29%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.258 EUR/MWh (+0.602). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.648 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.258
+0.602Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-20
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-20
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.648
-14.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.6
10.9
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.258 |
| MAR 26 | 12.119 |
| APR 26 | 10.848 |
| MAY 26 | 10.330 |
| JUN 26 | 10.228 |
| JUL 26 | 10.163 |
| AUG 26 | 10.155 |
| SEP 26 | 10.264 |
| OCT 26 | 10.149 |
| NOV 26 | 10.134 |
| DEC 26 | 10.207 |
| JAN 27 | 10.274 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 11.155 |
| APR 26 | 10.570 |
| MAY 26 | 10.195 |
| JUN 26 | 10.250 |
| JUL 26 | 10.325 |
| AUG 26 | 10.375 |
| SEP 26 | 10.365 |
| OCT 26 | 10.185 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.375 |
| JAN 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.225
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
47
Last Updated:
2026-01-20 23:47:49
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Hold Gains Amid Mixed Demand Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (4 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar 26% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short-covering action Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 27% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short covering Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Extend Weather Rally Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.94
Closest Support:
$3.59
8.88% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.96
0.51% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.59
Support
0.382
$3.96
Resistance
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.91
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-20 23:47:49
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.67%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | $3.84 | $3.31 | $4.38 |
| 2026-01-22 | $3.85 | $3.31 | $4.38 |
| 2026-01-23 | $3.89 | $3.36 | $4.43 |
| 2026-01-24 | $3.9 | $3.37 | $4.43 |
| 2026-01-25 | $3.85 | $3.32 | $4.39 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.67% for the next trading day (2026-01-21), reaching $3.84.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-21 and 2026-01-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~27.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.59 and resistance at 3.96. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 1.67%, suggesting short-term volatility may present opportunities, particularly if prices test support levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the market sentiment leaning bullish for natural gas, producers should consider adjusting production strategies to align with expected high heating demand due to the weather outlook. The fundamental balance indicates a significant decrease in supply, which could create favorable conditions for pricing. Hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the high heating demand is expected across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. The fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD indicates that supply may tighten, raising concerns over supply reliability. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies or hedging to manage costs effectively in the face of these market dynamics.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is characterized by a bullish sentiment for natural gas, supported by strong heating demand and a tightening fundamental balance. The weather outlook suggests continued high demand in the near term. Analysts should monitor the convergence of these factors, particularly how they may influence price movements and market sentiment shifts moving forward.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.