Natural Gas Radar

2026-01-21 16:54

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 01/21/2026 Focus: Natural Gas
Today’s fundamentals are bearish - but this weekend is supposed to start one of the biggest forecasted storage withdrawal weeks EVER! There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. This would set a new record and has physical and financial traders really REALLY worried after winter storm Yuri brought a wave of massive shut ins and caused Natural Gas to go above $400 (on the physical market). February contract was pushed up to $5 while March contract stayed closer to reality based (matching current physical prices) at $3.50. I would say that most of the run up to $5 was on a short squeeze for the February contract as the CFTC had over 100,000 contracts from hedge funds taking a short position. Near term 5.061 is the resistance and 4.476 is the support and a lot of empty space between - meaning that if rational heads prevail - we will likely see a retracement down to the mid $4 or a massive gap down after the weekend. Of course, never bet against weather - if we have even more storage draws - we could be looking at the March contract running up to $4 as well….but for now, I am expecting a cooling off period.

Today's Update

Updated: 2026-01-21 16:48:28 Length: 552 chars
Natural gas prices have recently surged, driven by frigid weather and heightened heating demand, with futures climbing over 57% in just two days. A record withdrawal of over 350 BCF is anticipated this weekend, echoing past winter storms that caused significant price spikes. February contracts hit $5, primarily due to short squeezes, while March remains grounded at $3.50. As we navigate this volatility, the market faces resistance at $5.061 and support at $4.476, hinting at potential retracement or further gains depending on weather developments.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.96
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.51

MA(20): $3.75

Current Price is 4.96, 9 day MA 3.51, 20 day MA 3.75

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.1043

Signal: -0.2169

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 66.11

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 66.11 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 350,678

Avg (20d): 172,844

Ratio: 2.03

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 93.5

%D: 58.72

Stochastic %K: 93.5, %D: 58.72. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.34

+DI: 42.4

-DI: 18.04

ADX: 23.34 (+DI: 42.4, -DI: 18.04). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -6.5

Williams %R: -6.5 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 4.82

Middle: 3.75

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 4.82, Middle: 3.75, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 109.9 109.7 104.0 103.07
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.07
Canadian Imports 6.0 5.5 6.8 6.13
Total Supply 115.9 115.2 110.8 109.23
Industrial Demand 23.6 21.3 25.4 25.3
Electric Power Demand 34.7 32.9 35.2 34.07
Residential & Commercial 47.0 35.1 38.9 40.97
LNG Exports 18.8 18.3 14.8 14.03
Mexico Exports 5.8 6.3 6.2 5.93
Pipeline Fuel 8.83 8.83 7.8 7.83
Total Demand 138.72 122.72 128.3 128.17
Supply/Demand Balance -22.82 -7.52 -17.5 -18.93

Weather Analysis

Enhanced weather analysis component not available

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.76
Daily: 0.12 (0.13%)
Weekly: -0.36 (-0.37%)

US_10Y

4.25
Daily: -0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.73%)

SP500

6875.62
Daily: 78.76 (1.16%)
Weekly: -50.98 (-0.74%)

VIX

16.9
Daily: -3.19 (-15.88%)
Weekly: 0.15 (0.9%)

GOLD

4838.5
Daily: 78.9 (1.66%)
Weekly: 212.2 (4.59%)

COPPER

5.81
Daily: 0.03 (0.57%)
Weekly: -0.2 (-3.38%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,635,220
Change: +39,051

Managed Money

-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI

Other Reportables

-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

2,018,789
Change: +49,910

Managed Money

47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI

Swap Dealers

-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.157 EUR/MWh (-0.101). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.547 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.157

-0.101

Front month: FEB 26

As of 2026-01-21

JKM Prices

9.610

+0.000

Front month: FEB 26

As of 2026-01-21

JKM-TTF Spread

-1.547

-13.87%

JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

As of 2026-01-21

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.1
11.4
10.7
10.1
9.4
11.16
9.61
FEB 26
11.83
10.80
MAR 26
10.80
10.41
APR 26
10.35
10.17
MAY 26
10.26
10.22
JUN 26
10.18
10.22
JUL 26
10.18
10.29
AUG 26
10.29
10.27
SEP 26
10.24
10.15
OCT 26
10.26
10.17
NOV 26
10.35
10.38
DEC 26
10.40
10.53
JAN 27
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
FEB 26 11.157
MAR 26 11.830
APR 26 10.801
MAY 26 10.351
JUN 26 10.259
JUL 26 10.183
AUG 26 10.175
SEP 26 10.287
OCT 26 10.238
NOV 26 10.258
DEC 26 10.354
JAN 27 10.401
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
FEB 26 9.610
MAR 26 10.805
APR 26 10.415
MAY 26 10.170
JUN 26 10.220
JUL 26 10.220
AUG 26 10.285
SEP 26 10.265
OCT 26 10.155
NOV 26 10.170
DEC 26 10.385
JAN 27 10.525

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.725
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 69
Last Updated: 2026-01-21 16:54:16

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.85

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.96
Closest Support: $4.54 8.47% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.96 0.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $3.01
0.236 $3.59
0.382 $3.96
0.5 $4.25
0.618 $4.54 Support
0.786 $4.96 Current Price
1.0 $5.5

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $6.17
1.618 $7.03
2.0 $7.99
2.618 $9.52

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.91
Forecast Generated: 2026-01-21 16:54:16
Next Trading Day: DOWN 1.67%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2026-01-21 $3.84 $3.31 $4.38
2026-01-22 $3.85 $3.31 $4.38
2026-01-23 $3.89 $3.36 $4.43
2026-01-24 $3.9 $3.37 $4.43
2026-01-25 $3.85 $3.32 $4.39

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.67% for the next trading day (2026-01-21), reaching $3.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-21 and 2026-01-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~27.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The market sentiment is currently bullish with a sentiment score of +0.725, indicating positive trader sentiment. However, the technical indicators suggest a moderately bullish outlook with a score of 2/5. Key price levels to watch are the Fibonacci support at 4.54 and resistance at 4.96. The ML price forecast for the next day suggests a potential decline of 1.67%, with a projected range between 3.31 and 4.38. Traders should be cautious of volatility around these levels, especially given the significant fundamental balance change of -15.30 BCFD, which could impact supply dynamics.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment is favorable for producers, with a strong sentiment score of +0.850 for natural gas. However, the fundamental balance indicates a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning. The high heating demand forecasted due to frigid weather conditions suggests a potential increase in sales, yet producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations as the weather impacts demand heavily. Overall, while the sentiment is positive, careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics is essential for effective operational planning.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

The outlook for consumers appears challenging, as the high heating demand due to severe weather conditions may lead to increased costs for natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a deficit of -22.82 BCFD, raising concerns about supply reliability. With the ML price forecast predicting a decline of 1.67%, consumers might find short-term opportunities to procure at lower prices. However, the expected volatility and potential for price spikes due to weather impacts necessitate proactive procurement strategies to secure stable supply and manage costs effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market presents a complex picture with strong bullish sentiment overall, particularly for natural gas. The fundamental balance reflects a concerning deficit, which could lead to supply constraints amidst high heating demand driven by frigid weather conditions. The ML price forecast indicates a potential short-term decline, suggesting analysts should monitor market reactions closely to adjust forecasts accordingly. The divergence between positive sentiment and actual supply-demand fundamentals highlights the need for careful analysis of market drivers, including geopolitical factors and weather impacts, to predict future price movements accurately.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.