MA(9): $3.52
MA(20): $3.75
MACD: -0.0998
Signal: -0.2161
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 66.6
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 352,574
Avg (20d): 172,938
Ratio: 2.04
%K: 96.18
%D: 59.61
ADX: 23.34
+DI: 42.4
-DI: 18.04
Value: -3.82
Upper: 4.83
Middle: 3.75
Lower: 2.67
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.157 EUR/MWh (-0.101). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.547 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-21
Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-21
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.157 |
| MAR 26 | 11.830 |
| APR 26 | 10.801 |
| MAY 26 | 10.351 |
| JUN 26 | 10.259 |
| JUL 26 | 10.183 |
| AUG 26 | 10.175 |
| SEP 26 | 10.287 |
| OCT 26 | 10.238 |
| NOV 26 | 10.258 |
| DEC 26 | 10.354 |
| JAN 27 | 10.401 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 10.805 |
| APR 26 | 10.415 |
| MAY 26 | 10.170 |
| JUN 26 | 10.220 |
| JUL 26 | 10.220 |
| AUG 26 | 10.285 |
| SEP 26 | 10.265 |
| OCT 26 | 10.155 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.385 |
| JAN 27 | 10.525 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | $3.84 | $3.31 | $4.38 |
| 2026-01-22 | $3.85 | $3.31 | $4.38 |
| 2026-01-23 | $3.89 | $3.36 | $4.43 |
| 2026-01-24 | $3.9 | $3.37 | $4.43 |
| 2026-01-25 | $3.85 | $3.32 | $4.39 |
Market indicators suggest a moderately bullish outlook, with a Fibonacci support level at 4.96 and resistance at 5.5. The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, indicating supply tightness which may bolster prices in the short term.
However, the ML price forecast predicts a decline of 1.67%, suggesting potential volatility. Traders should monitor these levels closely for short-term opportunities or risks.
With heating demand expected to remain high due to the weather outlook indicating significant heating degree days (HDD), producers may benefit from increased sales. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening market, which could support pricing.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to manage price volatility, especially in light of the negative sentiment surrounding demand due to frigid weather conditions affecting production capabilities.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows signs of strain with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD. High heating demand could lead to increased prices, impacting procurement strategies.
Reliability of supply may also be a concern given the weather outlook and freezing conditions that could disrupt production. It may be prudent to consider hedging against price increases in the near term.
The current market landscape presents a complex picture with bullish sentiment overall, particularly for natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates tightening supply, while the weather outlook supports heightened demand for heating.
However, the ML forecasts suggest a potential price drop, indicating a need for careful analysis of market dynamics. Analysts should monitor geopolitical factors and sentiment shifts that could influence these trends moving forward.