Today’s fundamentals are bearish - but this weekend is supposed to start one of the biggest forecasted storage withdrawal weeks EVER! There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. This would set a new record and has physical and financial traders really REALLY worried after winter storm Yuri brought a wave of massive shut ins and caused Natural Gas to go above $400 (on the physical market). February contract was pushed up to $5 while March contract stayed closer to reality based (matching current physical prices) at $3.50. I would say that most of the run up to $5 was on a short squeeze for the February contract as the CFTC had over 100,000 contracts from hedge funds taking a short position. Near term 5.061 is the resistance and 4.476 is the support and a lot of empty space between - meaning that if rational heads prevail - we will likely see a retracement down to the mid $4 or a massive gap down after the weekend. Of course, never bet against weather - if we have even more storage draws - we could be looking at the March contract running up to $4 as well….but for now, I am expecting a cooling off period.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-21 18:45
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently experienced a rollercoaster ride, soaring 57% over two days due to frigid weather raising heating demand and freezing wells. With over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn next week, a potential record, traders are on edge, recalling past market spikes. The February contract climbed to $5, driven largely by a short squeeze, while March remains more grounded at $3.50. Key resistance sits at $5.061, with support at $4.476—watch for potential retracement or further weather-induced spikes ahead!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$5.02
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.52
MA(20): $3.75
Current Price is 5.02, 9 day MA 3.52, 20 day MA 3.75
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0998
Signal: -0.2161
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 66.6
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 66.6 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 618
Avg (20d): 155,341
Ratio: 0.0
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 98.68
%D: 60.45
Stochastic %K: 98.68, %D: 60.45. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.27
+DI: 42.41
-DI: 18.46
ADX: 23.27 (+DI: 42.41, -DI: 18.46). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -1.32
Williams %R: -1.32 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 4.83
Middle: 3.75
Lower: 2.67
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 4.83, Middle: 3.75, Lower: 2.67
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
105.0 HDD
+21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
248.0 HDD
+69.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
105.0 CDD
+21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
-12.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/16 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/17 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/18 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/19 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/21 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 12.0 | +24.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 12.0 | +25.0 |
| 01/21 | 32.0 | 12.0 | +20.0 |
| 01/22 | 31.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/23 | 35.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/24 | 37.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/25 | 40.0 | nan | +nan |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/16 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/17 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/18 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/19 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/21 | 15.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 12.0 | -12.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | nan | +nan |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | nan | +nan |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.79
Daily:
0.15 (0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.34 (-0.34%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.73%)
SP500
6875.62
Daily:
78.76 (1.16%)
Weekly:
-50.98 (-0.74%)
VIX
16.9
Daily:
-3.19 (-15.88%)
Weekly:
0.15 (0.9%)
GOLD
4798.4
Daily:
38.8 (0.82%)
Weekly:
172.1 (3.72%)
COPPER
5.78
Daily:
0.01 (0.18%)
Weekly:
-0.23 (-3.75%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.157 EUR/MWh (-0.101). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.547 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.157
-0.101Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-21
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-21
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.547
-13.87%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.1
11.4
10.7
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.157 |
| MAR 26 | 11.830 |
| APR 26 | 10.801 |
| MAY 26 | 10.351 |
| JUN 26 | 10.259 |
| JUL 26 | 10.183 |
| AUG 26 | 10.175 |
| SEP 26 | 10.287 |
| OCT 26 | 10.238 |
| NOV 26 | 10.258 |
| DEC 26 | 10.354 |
| JAN 27 | 10.401 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 10.805 |
| APR 26 | 10.415 |
| MAY 26 | 10.170 |
| JUN 26 | 10.220 |
| JUL 26 | 10.220 |
| AUG 26 | 10.285 |
| SEP 26 | 10.265 |
| OCT 26 | 10.155 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.385 |
| JAN 27 | 10.525 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.725
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
71
Last Updated:
2026-01-21 18:44:41
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- TTF Prices Jump on US-EU Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (4 articles)
- Oil prices settle higher on force majeure at Kazakh field, slow Venezuela exports Reuters
- Oil Futures Hold Gains Amid Mixed Demand Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (7 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 26% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short-covering action Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 27% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short covering Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Extend Weather Rally Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.02
Closest Support:
$4.96
1.2% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.5
9.56% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.59
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
Support
1.0
$5.5
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.91
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-21 18:44:42
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.67%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | $3.84 | $3.31 | $4.38 |
| 2026-01-22 | $3.85 | $3.31 | $4.38 |
| 2026-01-23 | $3.89 | $3.36 | $4.43 |
| 2026-01-24 | $3.9 | $3.37 | $4.43 |
| 2026-01-25 | $3.85 | $3.32 | $4.39 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.67% for the next trading day (2026-01-21), reaching $3.84.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-21 and 2026-01-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~27.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bullish, reflected in the overall sentiment score of +0.725. However, the fundamental balance is notably negative at -22.82 BCFD, indicating potential supply constraints. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 4.96 and resistance at 5.5. The ML forecast suggests a potential price decline of 1.67%, with a range between 3.31 and 4.38. This presents short-term opportunities to capitalize on volatility, but caution is advised given the mixed signals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The market sentiment remains bullish for natural gas, indicated by a sentiment score of +0.850. However, the fundamental balance is concerning with a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, suggesting a need for careful production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand due to extreme weather conditions, as heating demand is expected to remain high across various regions. The recent news of supply fears may also necessitate a reassessment of supply chain reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The current fundamental balance is negative at -22.82 BCFD, which may impact supply reliability. Given the bearish sentiment surrounding demand, as reflected in the negative sentiment score of -0.344, it may be prudent to explore procurement strategies or hedging options to manage costs effectively amidst rising prices due to frigid weather conditions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of +0.725. However, the fundamental balance shows a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply scenario. The weather outlook is skewed towards high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which may drive prices upward. Analysts should monitor these trends closely, as the convergence of bullish sentiment and bearish fundamentals could lead to volatility in the market.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.