Today’s fundamentals are bearish - but this weekend is supposed to start one of the biggest forecasted storage withdrawal weeks EVER! There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. This would set a new record and has physical and financial traders really REALLY worried after winter storm Yuri brought a wave of massive shut ins and caused Natural Gas to go above $400 (on the physical market). February contract was pushed up to $5 while March contract stayed closer to reality based (matching current physical prices) at $3.50. I would say that most of the run up to $5 was on a short squeeze for the February contract as the CFTC had over 100,000 contracts from hedge funds taking a short position. Near term 5.061 is the resistance and 4.476 is the support and a lot of empty space between - meaning that if rational heads prevail - we will likely see a retracement down to the mid $4 or a massive gap down after the weekend. Of course, never bet against weather - if we have even more storage draws - we could be looking at the March contract running up to $4 as well….but for now, I am expecting a cooling off period.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-21 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged dramatically, rising over 57% in just two days due to a deep freeze boosting heating demand and freezing wells. Current fundamentals appear bearish; however, a record storage withdrawal of over 350 BCF is anticipated this week, raising concerns among traders. The February contract has spiked to $5, driven by a short squeeze, while March remains more grounded at $3.50. Resistance is seen at $5.061, with support at $4.476—watch for potential retracements or further weather-driven spikes.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$5.37
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.56
MA(20): $3.77
Current Price is 5.37, 9 day MA 3.56, 20 day MA 3.77
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0721
Signal: -0.2105
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 69.36
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 69.36 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 21,573
Avg (20d): 169,931
Ratio: 0.13
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 95.43
%D: 59.37
Stochastic %K: 95.43, %D: 59.37. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.77
+DI: 46.69
-DI: 17.09
ADX: 23.77 (+DI: 46.69, -DI: 17.09). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.57
Williams %R: -4.57 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 4.94
Middle: 3.77
Lower: 2.6
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 4.94, Middle: 3.77, Lower: 2.6
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
208.0 HDD
-16.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
271.0 HDD
+49.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/13 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/22 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/23 | 39.0 | 31.0 | +8.0 |
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 44.0 | 31.0 | +13.0 |
| 01/26 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/27 | 39.0 | 32.0 | +7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.75
Daily:
0.11 (0.11%)
Weekly:
-0.38 (-0.38%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.73%)
SP500
6875.62
Daily:
78.76 (1.16%)
Weekly:
-50.98 (-0.74%)
VIX
16.9
Daily:
-3.19 (-15.88%)
Weekly:
0.15 (0.9%)
GOLD
4799.0
Daily:
39.4 (0.83%)
Weekly:
172.7 (3.73%)
COPPER
5.8
Daily:
0.03 (0.47%)
Weekly:
-0.21 (-3.48%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.157 EUR/MWh (-0.101). JKM prices remained stable to 9.610 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.547 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.157
-0.101Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-21
JKM Prices
9.610
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-21
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.547
-13.87%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.1
11.4
10.7
10.1
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.157 |
| MAR 26 | 11.830 |
| APR 26 | 10.801 |
| MAY 26 | 10.351 |
| JUN 26 | 10.259 |
| JUL 26 | 10.183 |
| AUG 26 | 10.175 |
| SEP 26 | 10.287 |
| OCT 26 | 10.238 |
| NOV 26 | 10.258 |
| DEC 26 | 10.354 |
| JAN 27 | 10.401 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 10.805 |
| APR 26 | 10.415 |
| MAY 26 | 10.170 |
| JUN 26 | 10.220 |
| JUL 26 | 10.220 |
| AUG 26 | 10.285 |
| SEP 26 | 10.265 |
| OCT 26 | 10.155 |
| NOV 26 | 10.170 |
| DEC 26 | 10.385 |
| JAN 27 | 10.525 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.475
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
75
Last Updated:
2026-01-21 23:47:24
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
CRUDE_OIL
0.1
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- TTF Prices Jump on US-EU Supply Fears Trading Economics
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (4 articles)
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- Oil prices settle higher on force majeure at Kazakh field, slow Venezuela exports Reuters
- Oil Futures Hold Gains Amid Mixed Demand Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (7 articles)
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 26% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short-covering action Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 27% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short covering Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Extend Weather Rally Trading Economics
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.37
Closest Support:
$4.96
7.64% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.5
2.42% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.59
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
0.786
$4.96
Support
1.0
$5.5
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.88
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-21 23:47:24
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.34%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | $4.86 | $4.23 | $5.49 |
| 2026-01-23 | $4.91 | $4.28 | $5.54 |
| 2026-01-24 | $4.97 | $4.34 | $5.6 |
| 2026-01-25 | $4.91 | $4.28 | $5.54 |
| 2026-01-26 | $4.83 | $4.2 | $5.46 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.34% for the next trading day (2026-01-22), reaching $4.86.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-22 and 2026-01-26.
- The average confidence interval width is ~25.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment based on the overall market sentiment score of +0.725. However, with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, traders should be cautious of potential volatility. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.96, while resistance is at 5.5, indicating a tight range for price movements. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.34%, suggesting short-term opportunities may arise near the support level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the -22.82 BCFD fundamental balance, which indicates a tightening supply situation. Given the positive market sentiment for natural gas, reflected in a sentiment score of +0.850, producers might look to adjust their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The high heating demand due to the current weather outlook suggests a potential increase in prices, reinforcing the need for effective risk management strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With heating demand expected to remain high due to the current weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The negative fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD may lead to supply reliability risks. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility, especially given the expected high demand in residential and commercial sectors.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape shows a convergence of factors leaning towards a bullish outlook, particularly in the natural gas sector, driven by high heating demand and a tight supply balance. The ML price forecast suggests a slight downward trend, indicating potential short-term corrections. Analysts should closely monitor the impact of weather patterns and geopolitical events on market sentiment, as these could shift the outlook significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.