Today’s fundamentals are bearish - but this weekend is supposed to start one of the biggest forecasted storage withdrawal weeks EVER! There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. This would set a new record and has physical and financial traders really REALLY worried after winter storm Yuri brought a wave of massive shut ins and caused Natural Gas to go above $400 (on the physical market). February contract was pushed up to $5 while March contract stayed closer to reality based (matching current physical prices) at $3.50. I would say that most of the run up to $5 was on a short squeeze for the February contract as the CFTC had over 100,000 contracts from hedge funds taking a short position. Near term 5.061 is the resistance and 4.476 is the support and a lot of empty space between - meaning that if rational heads prevail - we will likely see a retracement down to the mid $4 or a massive gap down after the weekend. Of course, never bet against weather - if we have even more storage draws - we could be looking at the March contract running up to $4 as well….but for now, I am expecting a cooling off period. Overnight the Feb contract ran up again to 5.578 and is currently trading this AM at 5.285 (up over $0.40), meanwhile the March contract is trading more volume (as many traders have shifted from the prompt month) is trading up $0.07 to $3.61. If you look at volume on the contracts you'll see these facts:Feb contract volume is smaller than Mar, Apr, May - this is a short squeeze on open Feb positions March, April, May - show a more modest move up - that's what this means longer term Traders are truly scared for this storm Another thing that I've been thinking about is the move started on: MLK day then the big parts of the move happened overnight on two nights this week.....I think this might be European traders that are nervous for their LNG prices....but I think it's clear it's happening overnight with decent volume overnight - so I think it is some fear on LNG players that have Henry Hub exposure - it is a theory but certainly plausible. Thursday ended up bringing February Contract back down to earth - closing at 4.865 and March closed around 3.50 (closer to fundamental parity). Needless to say there is a lot of fear here
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-22 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged to a three-year high due to frigid weather and an impending record storage withdrawal of over 350 BCF. Despite current bearish fundamentals, the fear of shortages has led to a short squeeze, pushing February contracts up to $5. However, March contracts hover closer to the $3.50 mark, indicating a market recalibrating to fundamentals. Traders remain anxious about the weather's impact and any further storage draws could catalyze another price spike. Watch for contract resistance around $5.06 and support near $4.47.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.93
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.67
MA(20): $3.79
Current Price is 4.93, 9 day MA 3.67, 20 day MA 3.79
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0047
Signal: -0.1756
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 65.9
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 65.9 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,718
Avg (20d): 179,508
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 92.16
%D: 86.16
Stochastic %K: 92.16, %D: 86.16. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.55
+DI: 40.95
-DI: 17.42
ADX: 24.55 (+DI: 40.95, -DI: 17.42). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -7.84
Williams %R: -7.84 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.96
Middle: 3.79
Lower: 2.63
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.96, Middle: 3.79, Lower: 2.63
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
222.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
280.0 HDD
+60.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/14 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/22 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 44.0 | 31.0 | +13.0 |
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/28 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.37
Daily:
-0.39 (-0.39%)
Weekly:
-0.95 (-0.95%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.14%)
SP500
6913.35
Daily:
37.73 (0.55%)
Weekly:
-31.12 (-0.45%)
VIX
15.64
Daily:
-1.26 (-7.46%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-1.26%)
GOLD
4955.5
Daily:
123.7 (2.56%)
Weekly:
339.2 (7.35%)
COPPER
5.82
Daily:
0.09 (1.65%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-2.08%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,635,220
Change: +39,051
Managed Money
-105,134
Change: -3,750
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,332
Change: +1,693
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,512
Change: +17,237
10.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-80,467
Change: -16,292
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-13
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,018,789
Change: +49,910
Managed Money
47,570
Change: +23,042
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
229,841
Change: +6,721
11.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-295,291
Change: -1,405
-14.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.528 EUR/MWh (+0.371). JKM prices increased to 11.335 USD/MMBtu (+0.530). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.193 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.528
+0.371Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-22
JKM Prices
11.335
+0.530Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-22
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.193
-1.67%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-22
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.0
12.3
11.7
11.0
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.528 |
| MAR 26 | 12.747 |
| APR 26 | 11.390 |
| MAY 26 | 10.765 |
| JUN 26 | 10.683 |
| JUL 26 | 10.622 |
| AUG 26 | 10.595 |
| SEP 26 | 10.683 |
| OCT 26 | 10.598 |
| NOV 26 | 10.603 |
| DEC 26 | 10.694 |
| JAN 27 | 10.744 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.335 |
| APR 26 | 10.985 |
| MAY 26 | 10.600 |
| JUN 26 | 10.760 |
| JUL 26 | 10.785 |
| AUG 26 | 10.800 |
| SEP 26 | 10.760 |
| OCT 26 | 10.605 |
| NOV 26 | 10.600 |
| DEC 26 | 10.810 |
| JAN 27 | 10.945 |
| FEB 27 | 10.835 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.125
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
99
Last Updated:
2026-01-22 23:47:31
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
Top News Topics
Supply (10 articles)
- Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on 'armada' moving to Iran spur supply worries Reuters
- Crude Oil Declines Further on Strong Inventory Trading Economics
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- Oil Trims Losses But Remains Pressured by Trade Risks, Easing Supply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- TTF Prices Jump on US-EU Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (5 articles)
- Oil prices settle higher on force majeure at Kazakh field, slow Venezuela exports Reuters
- Oil Futures Hold Gains Amid Mixed Demand Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
- Oil Rises in Asia; Geopolitical Tensions in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (9 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Frigid US Weather Catapults Nat-Gas Prices to a 3-Year High Barchart
- US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 26% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short-covering action Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 27% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short covering Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Extend Weather Rally Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.93
Closest Support:
$4.54
7.91% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.96
0.61% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.59
0.382
$3.96
0.5
$4.25
0.618
$4.54
Support
0.786
$4.96
Resistance
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.17
1.618
$7.03
2.0
$7.99
2.618
$9.52
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$5.05
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-22 23:47:32
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.37%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | $5.11 | $4.48 | $5.74 |
| 2026-01-24 | $5.18 | $4.55 | $5.81 |
| 2026-01-25 | $5.14 | $4.51 | $5.77 |
| 2026-01-26 | $5.07 | $4.44 | $5.7 |
| 2026-01-27 | $5.06 | $4.43 | $5.69 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.37% for the next trading day (2026-01-23), reaching $5.11.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-23 and 2026-01-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~24.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market shows a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 4.54 and resistance at 4.96. The ML price forecast indicates an expected increase of 1.37%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities for profit.
However, the fundamental balance is currently negative at -22.82 BCFD, which could introduce volatility. Traders should monitor any shifts in demand, particularly with high heating demand forecasted due to frigid weather conditions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, coupled with a strong positive sentiment for natural gas, indicates a mixed market environment. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the high heating demand and potential supply constraints due to freezing conditions impacting well operations.
Given the current market sentiment, hedging strategies may need to be re-evaluated, especially with the fundamental balance showing a significant negative shift. Producers should stay alert to geopolitical developments that could further impact supply dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With heating demand expected to remain high, consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, which have recently surged due to cold weather. The current fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply situation, which could affect reliability.
It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in the near term, especially as the forecast predicts further price increases. Monitoring market sentiment and supply forecasts will be crucial for procurement decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment for natural gas, driven by significant heating demand amidst frigid weather. The bearish sentiment in crude oil points to a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. Analysts should focus on the fundamental balance score of -22.82 BCFD as a key indicator of market tightness.
Overall, the confluence of weather impacts, market sentiment, and technical indicators suggests a cautious outlook. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts that could alter this balance, particularly in response to geopolitical developments and changing supply scenarios.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.