Today’s fundamentals are bearish - but this weekend is supposed to start one of the biggest forecasted storage withdrawal weeks EVER! There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. This would set a new record and has physical and financial traders really REALLY worried after winter storm Yuri brought a wave of massive shut ins and caused Natural Gas to go above $400 (on the physical market). February contract was pushed up to $5 while March contract stayed closer to reality based (matching current physical prices) at $3.50. I would say that most of the run up to $5 was on a short squeeze for the February contract as the CFTC had over 100,000 contracts from hedge funds taking a short position. Near term 5.061 is the resistance and 4.476 is the support and a lot of empty space between - meaning that if rational heads prevail - we will likely see a retracement down to the mid $4 or a massive gap down after the weekend. Of course, never bet against weather - if we have even more storage draws - we could be looking at the March contract running up to $4 as well….but for now, I am expecting a cooling off period. Overnight the Feb contract ran up again to 5.578 and is currently trading this AM at 5.285 (up over $0.40), meanwhile the March contract is trading more volume (as many traders have shifted from the prompt month) is trading up $0.07 to $3.61. If you look at volume on the contracts you'll see these facts:Feb contract volume is smaller than Mar, Apr, May - this is a short squeeze on open Feb positions March, April, May - show a more modest move up - that's what this means longer term Traders are truly scared for this storm Another thing that I've been thinking about is the move started on: MLK day then the big parts of the move happened overnight on two nights this week.....I think this might be European traders that are nervous for their LNG prices....but I think it's clear it's happening overnight with decent volume overnight - so I think it is some fear on LNG players that have Henry Hub exposure - it is a theory but certainly plausible. Thursday ended up bringing February Contract back down to earth - closing at 4.865 and March closed around 3.50 (closer to fundamental parity). Needless to say there is a lot of fear here
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently experiencing wild fluctuations due to a historic winter storm, with forecasts predicting record withdrawals exceeding 350 Bcf. While February contracts surged to around $5 due to a short squeeze, March contracts remained closer to fundamental values at $3.50. Despite the cold driving demand, bearish fundamentals linger as traders anticipate a cooling period post-storm. Watch for support at $4.476 and resistance at $5.061; a break could lead to significant price movement. Stay alert!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.64
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.74
MA(20): $3.76
Current Price is 3.64, 9 day MA 3.74, 20 day MA 3.76
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0175
Signal: -0.1426
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.2
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.2 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 214,647
Avg (20d): 199,262
Ratio: 1.08
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 24.09
%D: 63.5
Stochastic %K: 24.09, %D: 63.5. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.86
+DI: 35.07
-DI: 30.75
ADX: 23.86 (+DI: 35.07, -DI: 30.75). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -75.91
Williams %R: -75.91 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 4.92
Middle: 3.76
Lower: 2.6
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 4.92, Middle: 3.76, Lower: 2.6
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
232.0 HDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
292.0 HDD
+73.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/23 | 39.0 | 31.0 | +8.0 |
| 01/24 | 45.0 | 31.0 | +14.0 |
| 01/25 | 43.0 | 31.0 | +12.0 |
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/28 | 39.0 | 31.0 | +8.0 |
| 01/29 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.46
Daily:
-0.9 (-0.92%)
Weekly:
-1.93 (-1.95%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6915.61
Daily:
2.26 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-24.4 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.09
Daily:
0.45 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.23 (1.45%)
GOLD
4983.1
Daily:
74.3 (1.51%)
Weekly:
394.7 (8.6%)
COPPER
5.94
Daily:
0.19 (3.39%)
Weekly:
0.15 (2.57%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,614,025
Change: -21,195
Managed Money
-77,101
Change: +28,033
-4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
17,432
Change: +9,100
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,628
Change: +116
10.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-116,389
Change: -35,922
-7.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.428 EUR/MWh (-0.100). JKM prices decreased to 11.220 USD/MMBtu (-0.115). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.208 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.428
-0.100Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-23
JKM Prices
11.220
-0.115Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-23
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.208
-1.82%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.7
12.0
11.4
10.8
10.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.428 |
| MAR 26 | 12.469 |
| APR 26 | 11.198 |
| MAY 26 | 10.558 |
| JUN 26 | 10.468 |
| JUL 26 | 10.398 |
| AUG 26 | 10.373 |
| SEP 26 | 10.470 |
| OCT 26 | 10.413 |
| NOV 26 | 10.447 |
| DEC 26 | 10.533 |
| JAN 27 | 10.602 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.220 |
| APR 26 | 10.885 |
| MAY 26 | 10.470 |
| JUN 26 | 10.595 |
| JUL 26 | 10.630 |
| AUG 26 | 10.640 |
| SEP 26 | 10.590 |
| OCT 26 | 10.485 |
| NOV 26 | 10.475 |
| DEC 26 | 10.715 |
| JAN 27 | 10.830 |
| FEB 27 | 10.725 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.5
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
110
Last Updated:
2026-01-23 23:47:47
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
Top News Topics
Supply (10 articles)
- Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on 'armada' moving to Iran spur supply worries Reuters
- Crude Oil Declines Further on Strong Inventory Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses As U.S. Posts Inventory Build — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices fall as risks from Kazakh production halt subside Reuters
- Crude Rallies as the Dollar Falls and Black Sea Oil Production Disrupted Barchart
- Oil Futures Rise With Production Halt in Kazakhstan — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on Kazakh supply disruptions, upbeat economic data; Greenland in focus Reuters
- TTF Prices Jump on US-EU Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (6 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher, Aided by Prospects of Stronger Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices settle higher on force majeure at Kazakh field, slow Venezuela exports Reuters
- Oil Futures Hold Gains Amid Mixed Demand Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
Infrastructure (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Storage Draw Beats Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (8 articles)
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Oil Retreats on Lower Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
Weather (11 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Underpinned by a Historic US Winter Storm Barchart
- Frigid US Weather Catapults Nat-Gas Prices to a 3-Year High Barchart
- US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Extend Weather-Driven Rally — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar 26% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short-covering action Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 27% to 3-week high on frigid weather forecasts, short covering Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Extend Weather Rally Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.64
Closest Support:
$3.63
0.27% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.02
10.44% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.63
Support
0.382
$4.02
Resistance
0.5
$4.33
0.618
$4.64
0.786
$5.08
1.0
$5.65
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.37
1.618
$7.28
2.0
$8.29
2.618
$9.93
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$5.05
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-23 23:47:48
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.38%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | $5.11 | $4.48 | $5.74 |
| 2026-01-24 | $5.18 | $4.55 | $5.81 |
| 2026-01-25 | $5.14 | $4.51 | $5.77 |
| 2026-01-26 | $5.07 | $4.44 | $5.7 |
| 2026-01-27 | $5.06 | $4.43 | $5.69 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.38% for the next trading day (2026-01-23), reaching $5.11.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-01-23 and 2026-01-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~24.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions are neutral with a technical score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.63, while resistance is at 4.02. Traders should note the potential for volatility as the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 1.38% with a range between 4.48 and 5.74. This could present short-term opportunities, particularly if prices approach the resistance level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD and a significant change of -15.30, producers should consider adjusting production levels accordingly. The bullish overall market sentiment, particularly for natural gas (+0.850), may enhance market conditions for selling. However, geopolitical risks highlighted in recent news could impact supply stability, necessitating robust hedging strategies to mitigate volatility.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Heating demand is projected to be high due to the current weather outlook, with heating degree days (HDD) significantly higher than cooling degree days (CDD). This could lead to potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. Consumers should prepare for possible supply reliability risks, especially as frigid weather could impact natural gas availability, prompting considerations for procurement strategies or hedging to manage costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish sentiments, particularly in natural gas, and bearish pressures from geopolitical concerns surrounding crude oil. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply scenario, while the overall market sentiment remains positive. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely as they could signal shifts in market outlook, particularly if weather conditions exacerbate heating demand or geopolitical tensions escalate.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.