This week is projected to be the biggest draw EVER. There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. Traders remember winter storm Yuri that brought physical prices over $400. This combined with a significant hedge fund short position shifted natural gas from $3 on the Feb Contract to over $5.30 on Friday’s close. Note that the March contract moved up significantly but at a much lower scale - only $1 (that’s sarcasm - it’s a lot but shows that most of this volatile move was on the Feb contract catching hedge funds short). Feb contract rolls off on the 28th - so Monday will be a volatile day as winter storm Fern will be settled in on demand impact. This is changing EOS storage to potentially below 1.6 TCF - that is low and will provide price support for 2026. Two weeks ago EOS was over 1.9 TCF so this is a shift. I think Feb will have a correction down on Monday and the March contract “should” stay elevated to the mid $3s.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-24 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing a remarkable surge, fueled by an unprecedented winter storm expected to withdraw over 350 BCF from storage. This historic draw has propelled February contracts from $3 to over $5.30, as hedge funds scramble to adjust positions. Meanwhile, expectations for end-of-season storage have dropped below 1.6 TCF, raising concerns about supply tightness. As traders brace for volatility with the February contract expiry on the 28th, keep an eye on winter storm impacts and March contract dynamics for potential price shifts.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$5.28
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.92
MA(20): $3.84
Current Price is 5.28, 9 day MA 3.92, 20 day MA 3.84
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1127
Signal: -0.1166
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 69.06
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 69.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 310,947
Avg (20d): 204,077
Ratio: 1.52
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 85.82
%D: 84.08
Stochastic %K: 85.82, %D: 84.08. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.58
+DI: 39.83
-DI: 15.23
ADX: 26.58 (+DI: 39.83, -DI: 15.23). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -14.18
Williams %R: -14.18 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 5.17
Middle: 3.84
Lower: 2.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 5.17, Middle: 3.84, Lower: 2.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
235.0 HDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
298.0 HDD
+79.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16 | 31.0 | 33.0 | -2.0 |
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/22 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/26 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/27 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/29 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/30 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.6
Daily:
-0.76 (-0.77%)
Weekly:
-1.79 (-1.8%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6915.61
Daily:
2.26 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-24.4 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.09
Daily:
0.45 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.23 (1.45%)
GOLD
4976.2
Daily:
67.4 (1.37%)
Weekly:
387.8 (8.45%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
0.17 (2.93%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.12%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,614,025
Change: -21,195
Managed Money
-77,101
Change: +28,033
-4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
17,432
Change: +9,100
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,628
Change: +116
10.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-116,389
Change: -35,922
-7.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.590 EUR/MWh (+0.162). JKM prices increased to 11.285 USD/MMBtu (+0.065). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.305 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.590
+0.162Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-24
JKM Prices
11.285
+0.065Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-24
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.305
-2.63%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-24
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.4
12.6
11.7
10.9
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.590 |
| MAR 26 | 13.108 |
| APR 26 | 11.521 |
| MAY 26 | 10.640 |
| JUN 26 | 10.507 |
| JUL 26 | 10.436 |
| AUG 26 | 10.410 |
| SEP 26 | 10.501 |
| OCT 26 | 10.411 |
| NOV 26 | 10.432 |
| DEC 26 | 10.530 |
| JAN 27 | 10.595 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.285 |
| APR 26 | 11.070 |
| MAY 26 | 10.480 |
| JUN 26 | 10.540 |
| JUL 26 | 10.530 |
| AUG 26 | 10.565 |
| SEP 26 | 10.525 |
| OCT 26 | 10.410 |
| NOV 26 | 10.390 |
| DEC 26 | 10.635 |
| JAN 27 | 10.725 |
| FEB 27 | 10.605 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.5
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
83
Last Updated:
2026-01-24 23:47:41
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on 'armada' moving to Iran spur supply worries Reuters
- Crude Oil Declines Further on Strong Inventory Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses As U.S. Posts Inventory Build — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Ethanol Production Expected to Slip — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Higher Brazilian Ethanol Production — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- TTF Prices Jump on US-EU Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (4 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher, Aided by Prospects of Stronger Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
Infrastructure (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Storage Draw Beats Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (8 articles)
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Oil Retreats on Lower Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile Reuters
- Stocks gripped by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds steady Reuters
- Stocks shaken by geopolitical fears, Japanese bonds bounce after selloff Reuters
Weather (6 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Underpinned by a Historic US Winter Storm Barchart
- Frigid US Weather Catapults Nat-Gas Prices to a 3-Year High Barchart
- US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar 57% over two days as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- US natgas futures soar over 20% for 2nd day as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Extend Weather-Driven Rally — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.28
Closest Support:
$5.08
3.79% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.65
7.01% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.63
0.382
$4.02
0.5
$4.33
0.618
$4.64
0.786
$5.08
Support
1.0
$5.65
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.37
1.618
$7.28
2.0
$8.29
2.618
$9.93
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$5.28
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-24 23:47:42
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.56%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | $5.36 | $4.73 | $5.99 |
| 2026-01-25 | $5.33 | $4.69 | $5.96 |
| 2026-01-26 | $5.26 | $4.63 | $5.89 |
| 2026-01-27 | $5.25 | $4.62 | $5.89 |
| 2026-01-28 | $5.23 | $4.6 | $5.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.56% for the next trading day (2026-01-24), reaching $5.36.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -2.4% between 2026-01-24 and 2026-01-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~23.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a bullish sentiment overall, with a next-day price forecast increase of 1.56%. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 5.08 and resistance at 5.65, which could serve as critical thresholds for trading strategies. The moderately bullish technical interpretation suggests potential for price fluctuations, providing short-term trading opportunities, but caution is advised as the fundamental balance is negative at -22.82 BCFD.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the negative fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, indicating a potential supply shortfall. The overall market sentiment is positive, particularly for natural gas, where sentiment is high at +0.850. This may influence hedging strategies as producers may look to lock in prices before potential volatility. Additionally, the strong heating demand forecast could encourage increased production planning to meet residential and commercial needs.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the high heating demand expected across multiple regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. The negative fundamental balance suggests supply constraints may arise, impacting procurement strategies. With natural gas prices projected to rise, consumers should consider hedging options to mitigate the impact of price increases in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently shaped by strong bullish sentiment across natural gas, supported by a high heating demand outlook and a significant price forecast increase. However, analysts should note the negative fundamental balance and mixed sentiment in crude oil, indicating potential volatility. The convergence of these factors suggests a cautious approach to forecasting, with a focus on monitoring geopolitical developments and weather impacts that could shift market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.