This week is projected to be the biggest draw EVER. There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. Traders remember winter storm Yuri that brought physical prices over $400. This combined with a significant hedge fund short position shifted natural gas from $3 on the Feb Contract to over $5.30 on Friday’s close. Note that the March contract moved up significantly but at a much lower scale - only $1 (that’s sarcasm - it’s a lot but shows that most of this volatile move was on the Feb contract catching hedge funds short). Feb contract rolls off on the 28th - so Monday will be a volatile day as winter storm Fern will be settled in on demand impact. This is changing EOS storage to potentially below 1.6 TCF - that is low and will provide price support for 2026. Two weeks ago EOS was over 1.9 TCF so this is a shift. I think Feb will have a correction down on Monday and the March contract “should” stay elevated to the mid $3s.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-25 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are soaring due to an unprecedented winter storm, with a projected historic withdrawal exceeding 350 BCF this week. The February contract jumped from $3 to over $5.30 as hedge funds scrambled to cover short positions, while the March contract also rose but at a less dramatic pace. This volatility has shifted end-of-season storage forecasts to potentially below 1.6 TCF, a significant drop from earlier estimates. Watch for potential corrections post-February expiration, as demand dynamics continue to unfold.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.77
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.96
MA(20): $3.82
Current Price is 3.77, 9 day MA 3.96, 20 day MA 3.82
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0763
Signal: -0.078
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.52
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.52 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 29,670
Avg (20d): 202,707
Ratio: 0.15
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 28.78
%D: 63.91
Stochastic %K: 28.78, %D: 63.91. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.62
+DI: 31.66
-DI: 24.33
ADX: 25.62 (+DI: 31.66, -DI: 24.33). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -71.22
Williams %R: -71.22 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.13
Middle: 3.82
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.13, Middle: 3.82, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
242.0 HDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
291.0 HDD
+72.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/17 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -1.0 |
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/22 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/25 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/26 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/27 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/28 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/29 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/30 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/31 | 39.0 | 31.0 | +8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.12
Daily:
-0.48 (-0.5%)
Weekly:
-1.52 (-1.55%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.19%)
SP500
6915.61
Daily:
2.26 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-24.4 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.09
Daily:
0.45 (2.88%)
Weekly:
0.23 (1.45%)
GOLD
5068.5
Daily:
92.3 (1.85%)
Weekly:
308.9 (6.49%)
COPPER
5.95
Daily:
0.04 (0.73%)
Weekly:
0.18 (3.14%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,614,025
Change: -21,195
Managed Money
-77,101
Change: +28,033
-4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
17,432
Change: +9,100
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,628
Change: +116
10.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-116,389
Change: -35,922
-7.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.590 EUR/MWh (+0.162). JKM prices increased to 11.285 USD/MMBtu (+0.065). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.305 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.590
+0.162Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-25
JKM Prices
11.285
+0.065Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-25
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.305
-2.63%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.4
12.6
11.7
10.9
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.590 |
| MAR 26 | 13.108 |
| APR 26 | 11.521 |
| MAY 26 | 10.640 |
| JUN 26 | 10.507 |
| JUL 26 | 10.436 |
| AUG 26 | 10.410 |
| SEP 26 | 10.501 |
| OCT 26 | 10.411 |
| NOV 26 | 10.432 |
| DEC 26 | 10.530 |
| JAN 27 | 10.595 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.285 |
| APR 26 | 11.070 |
| MAY 26 | 10.480 |
| JUN 26 | 10.540 |
| JUL 26 | 10.530 |
| AUG 26 | 10.565 |
| SEP 26 | 10.525 |
| OCT 26 | 10.410 |
| NOV 26 | 10.390 |
| DEC 26 | 10.635 |
| JAN 27 | 10.725 |
| FEB 27 | 10.605 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.083
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2026-01-25 23:47:47
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Oil Ticks Up Amid Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
- Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil rises nearly 3% as US sends armada to Iran, slaps new sanctions Reuters
- Crude Prices Sink as Geopolitical Risks Ease and US Supplies Increase Barchart
- Oil Retreats on Lower Geopolitical Risk Premium — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.77
Closest Support:
$3.63
3.71% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.02
6.63% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.63
Support
0.382
$4.02
Resistance
0.5
$4.33
0.618
$4.64
0.786
$5.08
1.0
$5.65
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.37
1.618
$7.28
2.0
$8.29
2.618
$9.93
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$5.28
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-25 23:47:47
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.64%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | $5.36 | $4.73 | $5.99 |
| 2026-01-25 | $5.33 | $4.7 | $5.96 |
| 2026-01-26 | $5.27 | $4.63 | $5.9 |
| 2026-01-27 | $5.26 | $4.63 | $5.89 |
| 2026-01-28 | $5.24 | $4.61 | $5.87 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.64% for the next trading day (2026-01-24), reaching $5.36.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -2.2% between 2026-01-24 and 2026-01-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~23.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support is noted at 3.63 and resistance at 4.02, indicating a potential range for price movement.
The ML price forecast suggests a short-term increase of 1.64%, with a range between 4.73 and 5.99. Traders should monitor these levels closely for breakout opportunities or reversals.
Given the high heating demand due to cold temperatures, volatility is expected, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Watch for shifts in sentiment as the weather impacts supply and demand dynamics.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation with a notable change of -15.30. This may warrant adjustments in production planning to capitalize on potential price increases.
With a bearish sentiment towards crude oil influenced by geopolitical risks, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations.
High heating demand is likely to increase natural gas prices, suggesting a favorable market for gas producers. However, producers must remain cautious of the supply reliability risks stemming from weather impacts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices due to the high heating demand and the current tight supply situation. The fundamental balance indicates a significant decrease in available supply, which may lead to higher procurement costs.
As heating demand spikes, especially in colder regions, consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against potential price increases. Monitoring weather forecasts will be crucial for anticipating demand spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with a slight positive sentiment for natural gas and a negative sentiment for crude oil. This divergence suggests a complex market landscape.
The fundamental balance indicates a tightening in natural gas supplies, which, combined with high heating demand, could lead to upward pressure on prices. Analysts should focus on these bullish signals for natural gas while remaining cautious of the bearish outlook for crude oil driven by geopolitical factors.
Overall, the interplay between weather conditions, supply dynamics, and geopolitical risks will be critical in shaping market trends moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.