This week is projected to be the biggest draw EVER. There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. Traders remember winter storm Yuri that brought physical prices over $400. This combined with a significant hedge fund short position shifted natural gas from $3 on the Feb Contract to over $5.30 on Friday’s close. Note that the March contract moved up significantly but at a much lower scale - only $1 (that’s sarcasm - it’s a lot but shows that most of this volatile move was on the Feb contract catching hedge funds short). Feb contract rolls off on the 28th - so Monday will be a volatile day as winter storm Fern will be settled in on demand impact. This is changing EOS storage to potentially below 1.6 TCF - that is low and will provide price support for 2026. Two weeks ago EOS was over 1.9 TCF so this is a shift. Production is down 10 BCFD+ fundamentally we are looking slightly bullish from last week - March contract is trading 3.83 (which is right at a key support/resistance level) and February is trading at over $6.50. This week will likely moderate the volatility and March will settle in somewhere between 3.449 and 3.87 with a likely bull/bear line at 3.679. Monday’s close ended up showing strength which firms up the sentiment that this is very bullish and may move March to have higher support.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-26 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged dramatically, driven by a record draw of over 350 BCF expected this week, reminiscent of the extreme price spikes during winter storm Yuri. Hedge fund short positions have fueled this rally, pushing February contracts from $3 to over $5.30. As production dips to a two-year low, the market anticipates end-of-season storage levels below 1.6 TCF, providing bullish support. Watch for volatility as contracts roll and winter storm Fern impacts demand, with March trading around $3.83 at key support levels.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.75
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.96
MA(20): $3.82
Current Price is 3.75, 9 day MA 3.96, 20 day MA 3.82
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0752
Signal: -0.0782
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 10,338
Avg (20d): 191,549
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 28.25
%D: 63.73
Stochastic %K: 28.25, %D: 63.73. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.58
+DI: 31.57
-DI: 24.55
ADX: 25.58 (+DI: 31.57, -DI: 24.55). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -71.75
Williams %R: -71.75 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.13
Middle: 3.82
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.13, Middle: 3.82, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
256.0 HDD
+31.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
289.0 HDD
+71.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/18 | 33.0 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/19 | 36.0 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/22 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 42.0 | 32.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/28 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/29 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/30 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 37.0 | 30.0 | +7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.14
Daily:
-0.46 (-0.47%)
Weekly:
-1.5 (-1.52%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.91%)
SP500
6950.23
Daily:
34.62 (0.5%)
Weekly:
153.37 (2.26%)
VIX
16.15
Daily:
0.06 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-3.94 (-19.61%)
GOLD
5065.0
Daily:
88.8 (1.78%)
Weekly:
305.4 (6.42%)
COPPER
5.89
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.1%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,614,025
Change: -21,195
Managed Money
-77,101
Change: +28,033
-4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
17,432
Change: +9,100
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,628
Change: +116
10.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-116,389
Change: -35,922
-7.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.590 EUR/MWh (+0.162). JKM prices increased to 11.285 USD/MMBtu (+0.065). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.305 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.590
+0.162Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-26
JKM Prices
11.285
+0.065Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-26
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.305
-2.63%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-26
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.4
12.6
11.7
10.9
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.590 |
| MAR 26 | 13.108 |
| APR 26 | 11.521 |
| MAY 26 | 10.640 |
| JUN 26 | 10.507 |
| JUL 26 | 10.436 |
| AUG 26 | 10.410 |
| SEP 26 | 10.501 |
| OCT 26 | 10.411 |
| NOV 26 | 10.432 |
| DEC 26 | 10.530 |
| JAN 27 | 10.595 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.285 |
| APR 26 | 11.070 |
| MAY 26 | 10.480 |
| JUN 26 | 10.540 |
| JUL 26 | 10.530 |
| AUG 26 | 10.565 |
| SEP 26 | 10.525 |
| OCT 26 | 10.410 |
| NOV 26 | 10.390 |
| DEC 26 | 10.635 |
| JAN 27 | 10.725 |
| FEB 27 | 10.605 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.483
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
55
Last Updated:
2026-01-26 23:47:54
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Weather (6 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Gains on Winter Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Underpinned by a Historic US Winter Storm Barchart
- U.S. Natural Gas Posts Record Weekly Gain on Winter Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Storm-Driven Diesel Futures Offer Crude Some Support — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.75
Closest Support:
$3.63
3.2% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.02
7.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
0.236
$3.63
Support
0.382
$4.02
Resistance
0.5
$4.33
0.618
$4.64
0.786
$5.08
1.0
$5.65
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.37
1.618
$7.28
2.0
$8.29
2.618
$9.93
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$6.8
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-26 23:47:55
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.71%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | $6.92 | $6.09 | $7.74 |
| 2026-01-28 | $7.0 | $6.17 | $7.83 |
| 2026-01-29 | $7.31 | $6.48 | $8.14 |
| 2026-01-30 | $7.52 | $6.69 | $8.35 |
| 2026-01-31 | $7.45 | $6.62 | $8.28 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.71% for the next trading day (2026-01-27), reaching $6.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 7.7% between 2026-01-27 and 2026-01-31.
- The average confidence interval width is ~22.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bullish, with a sentiment score of +0.483. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.63 and resistance at 4.02. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 1.71%, suggesting short-term opportunities for upward price movement. However, the overall technical interpretation remains neutral, indicating that volatility may persist. Traders should remain cautious of potential fluctuations around these key levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, which may indicate tighter supply conditions. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the high heating demand expected across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. The negative sentiment surrounding supply and geopolitical risks could impact pricing strategies, suggesting a need for robust hedging strategies to mitigate potential downturns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand forecasted and a negative fundamental balance, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The weather outlook indicates increased heating needs, particularly in colder regions, which may lead to higher prices in the short term. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for these upcoming demand pressures and potential supply reliability risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently influenced by a combination of bullish sentiment and a negative fundamental balance. The prevailing weather conditions favor heating demand, which is a strong driving factor for natural gas prices. Analysts should closely monitor the impact of geopolitical risks on crude oil prices, as they may lead to volatility. Overall, the convergence of these factors suggests a cautious but potentially upward trend in energy prices, warranting further observation for any shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.