This week is projected to be the biggest draw EVER. There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. Traders remember winter storm Yuri that brought physical prices over $400. This combined with a significant hedge fund short position shifted natural gas from $3 on the Feb Contract to over $5.30 on Friday’s close. Note that the March contract moved up significantly but at a much lower scale - only $1 (that’s sarcasm - it’s a lot but shows that most of this volatile move was on the Feb contract catching hedge funds short). Feb contract rolls off on the 28th - so Monday will be a volatile day as winter storm Fern will be settled in on demand impact. This is changing EOS storage to potentially below 1.6 TCF - that is low and will provide price support for 2026. Two weeks ago EOS was over 1.9 TCF so this is a shift. Production is down 10 BCFD+ fundamentally we are looking slightly bullish from last week - March contract is trading 3.83 (which is right at a key support/resistance level) and February is trading at over $6.50. This week will likely moderate the volatility and March will settle in somewhere between 3.449 and 3.87 with a likely bull/bear line at 3.679. Monday’s close ended up showing strength which firms up the sentiment that this is very bullish and may move March to have higher support. Projections are holding true that we will be above 350 BCF on the week ending Jan 30th for the withdrawal. For now, NG is hugging the 3.679 level as the battleground - which seems high for winter - but we’ve it broke above or below that level
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-28 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing significant volatility, with forecasts predicting the largest weekly draw in history, possibly exceeding 350 BCF. This surge, influenced by storm conditions and hedge fund short positions, has pushed February contracts above $5.30. Meanwhile, production has dipped over 10 BCFD, tightening supply. The March contract is currently at a pivotal support level around $3.679. As we approach the February contract expiration, expect continued fluctuations influenced by weather patterns and storage levels.
Key Developments & Statistics:
- Anticipated draw: 350 BCF from 1/23 to 1/30.
- February contract price surge to $5.30; March at $3.83.
- Production down 10 B
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.84
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.77
MA(20): $4.06
Current Price is 3.84, 9 day MA 4.77, 20 day MA 4.06
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3664
Signal: 0.1324
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.19
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,130
Avg (20d): 189,657
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 18.7
%D: 64.45
Stochastic %K: 18.7, %D: 64.45. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.72
+DI: 32.35
-DI: 24.29
ADX: 30.72 (+DI: 32.35, -DI: 24.29). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -81.3
Williams %R: -81.3 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.3
Middle: 4.06
Lower: 1.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.3, Middle: 4.06, Lower: 1.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
275.0 HDD
+52.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
271.0 HDD
+57.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/20 | 37.0 | 33.0 | +4.0 |
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/22 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 45.0 | 31.0 | +14.0 |
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/29 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/30 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/31 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
| 02/02 | 35.0 | 30.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/03 | 33.0 | 30.0 | +3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.08
Daily:
-0.14 (-0.15%)
Weekly:
-2.28 (-2.32%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
0.03 (0.66%)
Weekly:
0.0 (0.05%)
SP500
6978.03
Daily:
-0.57 (-0.01%)
Weekly:
64.68 (0.94%)
VIX
16.35
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.71 (4.54%)
GOLD
5594.6
Daily:
514.7 (10.13%)
Weekly:
685.8 (13.97%)
COPPER
6.32
Daily:
0.49 (8.35%)
Weekly:
0.57 (9.97%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,614,025
Change: -21,195
Managed Money
-77,101
Change: +28,033
-4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
17,432
Change: +9,100
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,628
Change: +116
10.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-116,389
Change: -35,922
-7.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.554 EUR/MWh (-0.006). JKM prices increased to 11.350 USD/MMBtu (+0.125). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.204 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.554
-0.006Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-28
JKM Prices
11.350
+0.125Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-28
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.204
-1.77%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-28
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.5
12.5
11.6
10.7
9.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.554 |
| MAR 26 | 13.154 |
| APR 26 | 11.419 |
| MAY 26 | 10.374 |
| JUN 26 | 10.147 |
| JUL 26 | 10.108 |
| AUG 26 | 10.096 |
| SEP 26 | 10.220 |
| OCT 26 | 10.174 |
| NOV 26 | 10.204 |
| DEC 26 | 10.301 |
| JAN 27 | 10.366 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.350 |
| APR 26 | 10.955 |
| MAY 26 | 10.320 |
| JUN 26 | 10.135 |
| JUL 26 | 10.220 |
| AUG 26 | 10.275 |
| SEP 26 | 10.220 |
| OCT 26 | 10.125 |
| NOV 26 | 10.125 |
| DEC 26 | 10.395 |
| JAN 27 | 10.515 |
| FEB 27 | 10.390 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.725
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
74
Last Updated:
2026-01-28 23:47:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production Reuters
- Arctic Blast Curbs US Nat-Gas Production and Boosts Prices Barchart
- US natgas futures soar 89% over five days as freezing wells cut output to two-year low Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Geopolitical Risk Premium Gives Oil A Further Lift — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise On Geopolitical Apprehension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Ticks Up Amid Geopolitical Risks Trading Economics
Weather (13 articles)
- Oil Extends Gains on Iran Risks, U.S. Winter Storm Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Storm-Driven Diesel Futures Offer Crude Some Support — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Ease on Warmer Forecasts Trading Economics
- US Natgas Prices Ease on Warmer Forecasts Trading Economics
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Ease, But Frigid Weather Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Rally on Winter Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Winter Storm Lifts Near-Term U.S. Natural Gas — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Gains on Winter Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.84
Closest Support:
$3.01
21.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.05
5.47% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.05
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.22
0.618
$5.75
0.786
$6.49
1.0
$7.44
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$8.64
1.618
$10.18
2.0
$11.87
2.618
$14.61
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$7.46
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-28 23:47:38
Next Trading Day:
UP 4.53%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | $7.8 | $6.96 | $8.63 |
| 2026-01-30 | $8.08 | $7.25 | $8.92 |
| 2026-01-31 | $8.16 | $7.33 | $9.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | $8.32 | $7.48 | $9.16 |
| 2026-02-02 | $8.41 | $7.57 | $9.24 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~4.53% for the next trading day (2026-01-29), reaching $7.80.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 7.8% between 2026-01-29 and 2026-02-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~20.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The technical interpretation indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 1/5, suggesting limited immediate directional momentum. Key Fibonacci levels show support at 3.01 and resistance at 4.05. With the fundamental balance reported at -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply, traders should monitor for potential price volatility. The ML price forecast indicates an expected increase of 4.53% with a range of 6.96 to 8.63, presenting short-term trading opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, so aligning positions with this sentiment could be advantageous.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD suggests a tightening supply environment, which could influence production planning. Producers should consider adjusting output in response to the high heating demand forecast, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions where heating degree days (HDD) are significantly elevated. Additionally, the market sentiment is strong, with a sentiment score of +0.700, reflecting positive outlooks. This sentiment can be leveraged for hedging strategies to protect against potential price fluctuations while maximizing revenues from higher demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD emphasizes a tightening supply, which could lead to increased prices, especially in regions experiencing extreme cold weather. Consumers may need to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising costs, particularly in the Northeast where heating demand is at its peak. Monitoring the market sentiment could also provide insights into potential future price movements, aiding in strategic procurement decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by several strong driving factors. The overall market sentiment is positive, with a sentiment score of +0.700, indicating bullish trends across both crude oil and natural gas sectors. The fundamental balance is notably negative at -22.82 BCFD, suggesting a tightening supply which could lead to upward price pressures. The weather outlook is heavily skewed towards heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could amplify price volatility in the near term. Analysts should closely monitor these factors, as they could lead to significant shifts in market dynamics and pricing strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.