Thursdays Draw for the week ending 1/23 is expected to be decent at 230 BCF. For the week ending 1/30 this could be the biggest draw EVER. There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. Traders remember winter storm Yuri that brought physical prices over $400. This combined with a significant hedge fund short position shifted natural gas from $3 on the Feb Contract to over $5.30 on Friday’s close. Note that the March contract moved up significantly but at a much lower scale - only $1 (that’s sarcasm - it’s a lot but shows that most of this volatile move was on the Feb contract catching hedge funds short). Feb contract rolls off on the 28th - so Monday will be a volatile day as winter storm Fern will be settled in on demand impact. This is changing EOS storage to potentially below 1.6 TCF - that is low and will provide price support for 2026. Two weeks ago EOS was over 1.9 TCF so this is a shift. Production is down 10 BCFD+ fundamentally we are looking slightly bullish from last week - March contract is trading 3.83 (which is right at a key support/resistance level) and February is trading at over $6.50. This week will likely moderate the volatility and March will settle in somewhere between 3.449 and 3.87 with a likely bull/bear line at 3.679. Monday’s close ended up showing strength which firms up the sentiment that this is very bullish and may move March to have higher support. Projections are holding true that we will be above 350 BCF on the week ending Jan 30th for the withdrawal. For now, NG is hugging the 3.679 level as the support with the pivot at 3.87. Some forward weather forecasts are pushing limits that could push us back up higher - given that we are headed into the weekend - there is a lot of risk riding going into the weekend and the weekend weather runs will dictate next week.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-29 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing significant upward pressure, driven by a projected 350 BCF withdrawal for the week ending January 30, potentially marking one of the largest draws on record. The February contract surged from $3 to over $5.30, fueled by hedge fund short positions and severe winter weather. As production dips over 10 BCFD and storage levels drop below 1.6 TCF, traders should closely watch the March contract, currently around $3.83, as volatility is expected to persist, influenced by weather forecasts and market sentiment.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.83
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $5.25
MA(20): $4.23
Current Price is 3.83, 9 day MA 5.25, 20 day MA 4.23
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.4901
Signal: 0.2502
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 45.13
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 45.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,950
Avg (20d): 194,602
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 17.11
%D: 66.19
Stochastic %K: 17.11, %D: 66.19. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 33.4
+DI: 30.02
-DI: 21.2
ADX: 33.4 (+DI: 30.02, -DI: 21.2). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -82.89
Williams %R: -82.89 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.92
Middle: 4.23
Lower: 1.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.92, Middle: 4.23, Lower: 1.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
281.0 HDD
+59.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
258.0 HDD
+44.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | 34.0 | 33.0 | +1.0 |
| 01/22 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 45.0 | 31.0 | +14.0 |
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/29 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/30 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/31 | 42.0 | 31.0 | +11.0 |
| 02/01 | 39.0 | 30.0 | +9.0 |
| 02/02 | 34.0 | 30.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/03 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.53
Daily:
0.08 (0.08%)
Weekly:
-1.07 (-1.1%)
US_10Y
4.23
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.56%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.28%)
SP500
6969.01
Daily:
-9.02 (-0.13%)
Weekly:
53.4 (0.77%)
VIX
16.88
Daily:
0.53 (3.24%)
Weekly:
0.79 (4.91%)
GOLD
5244.5
Daily:
-57.1 (-1.08%)
Weekly:
268.3 (5.39%)
COPPER
6.04
Daily:
0.15 (2.49%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.17%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,614,025
Change: -21,195
Managed Money
-77,101
Change: +28,033
-4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
17,432
Change: +9,100
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
164,628
Change: +116
10.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-116,389
Change: -35,922
-7.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-20
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,964,359
Change: -54,430
Managed Money
47,500
Change: -70
2.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
204,437
Change: -25,404
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-301,484
Change: -6,193
-15.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.555 EUR/MWh (+0.001). JKM prices decreased to 11.290 USD/MMBtu (-0.060). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.265 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.555
+0.001Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-29
JKM Prices
11.290
-0.060Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-29
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.265
-2.29%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-29
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.3
12.5
11.7
10.9
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.555 |
| MAR 26 | 12.987 |
| APR 26 | 11.556 |
| MAY 26 | 10.547 |
| JUN 26 | 10.359 |
| JUL 26 | 10.320 |
| AUG 26 | 10.322 |
| SEP 26 | 10.454 |
| OCT 26 | 10.424 |
| NOV 26 | 10.445 |
| DEC 26 | 10.521 |
| JAN 27 | 10.598 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.290 |
| APR 26 | 11.075 |
| MAY 26 | 10.500 |
| JUN 26 | 10.340 |
| JUL 26 | 10.430 |
| AUG 26 | 10.505 |
| SEP 26 | 10.430 |
| OCT 26 | 10.390 |
| NOV 26 | 10.380 |
| DEC 26 | 10.585 |
| JAN 27 | 10.740 |
| FEB 27 | 10.685 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
97
Last Updated:
2026-01-29 23:47:48
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.75
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Arctic Blast Curbs US Nat-Gas Production and Boosts Prices Barchart
- US natgas futures soar 89% over five days as freezing wells cut output to two-year low Reuters
- Oil Prices Can Stay High Despite Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Futures Make Headway on Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risk Premium Gives Oil A Further Lift — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise On Geopolitical Apprehension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (14 articles)
- US natgas futures climb 5% on rising demand forecasts, volatility hits record high Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Ease on Warmer Forecasts Trading Economics
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Weather-Driven Rally — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Ease on Warmer Forecasts Trading Economics
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Ease, But Frigid Weather Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Rally on Winter Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Winter Storm Lifts Near-Term U.S. Natural Gas — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Gains on Winter Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains on Iran Risks, U.S. Winter Storm Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
- Oil slips even as US winter storm curbs crude output Reuters
- Storm-Driven Diesel Futures Offer Crude Some Support — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.83
Closest Support:
$3.01
21.41% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
8.09% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.92
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-29 23:47:48
Next Trading Day:
UP 10.06%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | $4.31 | $2.73 | $5.89 |
| 2026-01-31 | $3.79 | $2.21 | $5.36 |
| 2026-02-01 | $4.64 | $3.07 | $6.22 |
| 2026-02-02 | $4.1 | $2.52 | $5.68 |
| 2026-02-03 | $4.62 | $3.04 | $6.19 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~10.06% for the next trading day (2026-01-30), reaching $4.31.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 7.2% between 2026-01-30 and 2026-02-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~73.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical sentiment with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01, while the resistance is at 4.14. The upcoming ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 10.06% with a range of 2.73 to 5.89, indicating short-term opportunities for profit. Traders should monitor the fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD as this could introduce volatility in the market.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a significant change of -15.30, signaling a tightening market that may impact production strategies. Given the high heating demand forecasted across all regions, producers should consider adjusting output to meet anticipated increases in demand. The bullish sentiment in news articles could support pricing, making hedging strategies more favorable at this time.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD may pose a risk to supply reliability, especially in heating-dominated regions. It may be prudent to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging against price increases in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is shaped by a bullish sentiment reflected in the overall market sentiment score of +0.750. Key drivers include the high heating demand forecast and the tightening fundamental balance. Analysts should closely monitor the convergence of technical indicators and news sentiment, as these factors may lead to shifts in market outlook and trading strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.