Thursdays Draw for the week ending 1/23 is expected to be decent at 230 BCF. For the week ending 1/30 this could be the biggest draw EVER. There is currently over 350 BCF expected to be withdrawn from 1/23 to 1/30. Traders remember winter storm Yuri that brought physical prices over $400. This combined with a significant hedge fund short position shifted natural gas from $3 on the Feb Contract to over $5.30 on Friday’s close. Note that the March contract moved up significantly but at a much lower scale - only $1 (that’s sarcasm - it’s a lot but shows that most of this volatile move was on the Feb contract catching hedge funds short). Feb contract rolls off on the 28th - so Monday will be a volatile day as winter storm Fern will be settled in on demand impact. This is changing EOS storage to potentially below 1.6 TCF - that is low and will provide price support for 2026. Two weeks ago EOS was over 1.9 TCF so this is a shift. Production is down 10 BCFD+ fundamentally we are looking slightly bullish from last week - March contract is trading 3.83 (which is right at a key support/resistance level) and February is trading at over $6.50. This week will likely moderate the volatility and March will settle in somewhere between 3.449 and 3.87 with a likely bull/bear line at 3.679. Monday’s close ended up showing strength which firms up the sentiment that this is very bullish and may move March to have higher support. Projections are holding true that we will be above 350 BCF on the week ending Jan 30th for the withdrawal. For now, NG is hugging the 3.679 level as the support with the pivot at 3.87. Some forward weather forecasts are pushing limits that could push us back up higher - given that we are headed into the weekend - there is a lot of risk riding going into the weekend and the weekend weather runs will dictate next week.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-01-30 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged recently, driven by severe cold weather and significant supply draws. The upcoming week is projected to see a historic withdrawal of over 350 BCF, reminiscent of the price spikes during Winter Storm Yuri. Hedge fund short positions have contributed to volatility, with February contracts jumping from $3 to over $5.30. As we approach the end of the month, watch for March contracts to stabilize around $3.679, with weather forecasts playing a critical role in price direction. Stay warm and keep your trading hats on!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.09
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $5.37
MA(20): $4.25
Current Price is 4.09, 9 day MA 5.37, 20 day MA 4.25
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.381
Signal: 0.2775
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.86
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.86 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 101,440
Avg (20d): 204,497
Ratio: 0.5
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 22.53
%D: 44.61
Stochastic %K: 22.53, %D: 44.61. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.21
+DI: 30.62
-DI: 21.21
ADX: 32.21 (+DI: 30.62, -DI: 21.21). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -77.47
Williams %R: -77.47 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.93
Middle: 4.25
Lower: 1.58
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.93, Middle: 4.25, Lower: 1.58
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
288.0 HDD
+68.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
249.0 HDD
+34.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/22 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 38.0 | 31.0 | +7.0 |
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 45.0 | 31.0 | +14.0 |
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/30 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
| 02/02 | 34.0 | 30.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/03 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.15
Daily:
0.87 (0.9%)
Weekly:
0.11 (0.11%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
0.01 (0.33%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.66%)
SP500
6939.03
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
-11.2 (-0.16%)
VIX
17.44
Daily:
0.56 (3.32%)
Weekly:
1.29 (7.99%)
GOLD
5067.5
Daily:
-250.9 (-4.72%)
Weekly:
-12.2 (-0.24%)
COPPER
6.01
Daily:
-0.16 (-2.6%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.52%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,625,943
Change: +11,918
Managed Money
-21,934
Change: +55,167
-1.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
25,698
Change: +8,266
1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,069
Change: -37,559
7.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-141,672
Change: -25,283
-8.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: +71,290
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.575 EUR/MWh (+0.020). JKM prices increased to 11.465 USD/MMBtu (+0.175). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.110 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.575
+0.020Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-01-30
JKM Prices
11.465
+0.175Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-01-30
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.110
-0.95%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-01-30
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
13.8
12.9
12.0
11.2
10.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.575 |
| MAR 26 | 13.511 |
| APR 26 | 12.172 |
| MAY 26 | 11.186 |
| JUN 26 | 10.996 |
| JUL 26 | 10.948 |
| AUG 26 | 10.936 |
| SEP 26 | 11.045 |
| OCT 26 | 11.009 |
| NOV 26 | 11.037 |
| DEC 26 | 11.114 |
| JAN 27 | 11.157 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.465 |
| APR 26 | 11.565 |
| MAY 26 | 11.060 |
| JUN 26 | 10.935 |
| JUL 26 | 11.020 |
| AUG 26 | 11.115 |
| SEP 26 | 11.025 |
| OCT 26 | 10.970 |
| NOV 26 | 10.570 |
| DEC 26 | 11.160 |
| JAN 27 | 11.320 |
| FEB 27 | 11.255 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.467
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
97
Last Updated:
2026-01-30 23:48:04
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.65
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Arctic Blast Curbs US Nat-Gas Production and Boosts Prices Barchart
- Oil Prices Can Stay High Despite Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Futures Make Headway on Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Geopolitical Risk Premium Gives Oil A Further Lift — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise On Geopolitical Apprehension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (12 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Surge Due to Persistent US Cold Weather Barchart
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain As Cold Weather to Continue — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures climb 5% on rising demand forecasts, volatility hits record high Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Ease on Warmer Forecasts Trading Economics
- U.S. Natural Gas Extends Weather-Driven Rally — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Ease on Warmer Forecasts Trading Economics
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Ease, But Frigid Weather Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- New England Relied on Petroleum-Fired Generation During Storm — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains on Iran Risks, U.S. Winter Storm Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI Rebounds as US Winter Storm Cuts Oil Output Trading Economics
- Oil Falls, With Focus on Supply, U.S. Winter Storm Impact — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil futures surge 3% a barrel as winter storm slams US output Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.09
Closest Support:
$3.01
26.41% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
1.22% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.92
Forecast Generated:
2026-01-30 23:48:04
Next Trading Day:
UP 10.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | $4.31 | $2.74 | $5.89 |
| 2026-01-31 | $3.79 | $2.21 | $5.36 |
| 2026-02-01 | $4.64 | $3.07 | $6.22 |
| 2026-02-02 | $4.1 | $2.53 | $5.68 |
| 2026-02-03 | $4.62 | $3.04 | $6.19 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~10.08% for the next trading day (2026-01-30), reaching $4.31.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 7.2% between 2026-01-30 and 2026-02-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~73.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market presents neutral technical indicators with a Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and a resistance at 4.14. The ML price forecast indicates a potential upward movement of 10.08%, suggesting opportunities for short-term trades within the range of 2.74 to 5.89. However, volatility remains high due to fluctuating demand driven by severe weather conditions, which may pose risks for rapid price changes.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply scenario. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning to capitalize on the bullish market sentiment reflected in the news articles. The sentiment around natural gas is particularly strong at +0.650, suggesting favorable conditions for pricing strategies and hedging against potential downturns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected due to the weather outlook (Heating dominated), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The risk of supply disruptions is elevated, especially in the Northeast and Midwest regions where heating degree days (HDD) are significantly high. It is advisable to consider hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of rising prices as the market sentiment remains positive.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a combination of bullish sentiment and a negative fundamental balance, suggesting a potential upward price trajectory. The prevailing weather conditions are driving demand, particularly for heating, which is reflected in the strong sentiment around natural gas prices. Analysts should monitor the convergence of these factors closely, as shifts in supply or demand could lead to significant market adjustments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific recommendations for trading or investing.