Natural gas traders are staring at a market that just reminded everyone why complacency gets punished. March Nymex is trading ~$3.80–3.90 until we saw Friday edge up to over $4.30 on bigger HDD forecasts and fear of not going into the weekend short.after one of the most violent front-month dislocations in years sent February screaming above $6.50 to close close to $7. The catalyst is Winter Storm Fern, which is lining up a 350+ Bcf storage withdrawal is expected this Thursday for the week ending Jan 30, potentially record-setting, and has flipped end-of-season storage expectations from 1.9 Tcf to sub-1.6 Tcf in roughly two weeks. Production took a real hit, down over 10+ Bcfd for several days, with as much as 50 Bcf/d offline at the freeze-off peak, while demand surged to ~129 Bcfd, up nearly 40% y/y. Hedge funds were leaning short into this event, and February was the catalyst that caught them short - March seemed more rational with an immediate +$1 move up and then further strengthening. LNG feedgas has rebounded to 18+ Bcfd after storm disruptions, tightening the margin further, and the storage surplus versus the 5-year average is on track to flip into a ~100 Bcf deficit in coming reports. Weather remains the swing variable, with a cold bias lingering into mid-February and weekend model runs carrying real gap risk. Weekend weather and storage runs will show the story - but right now, I am expected a drop back to $4.06 and a battle for whether Natty will stay above $4 in the near term. The floor for 2026 just moved higher, EOS storage is now a real problem for 2026, and nobody is casually short anymore. Gas didn’t just rally. It reset the risk regime.
* Lots of question marks before Sunday’s open
* Long range weather runs are slightly more supportive
* More cold could really underpin NG to $4+ for the rest of 2026…but that depends on weather reality
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-01 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are experiencing significant volatility, with prices swinging from ~$3.80 to over $4.30 on weather-driven demand and concerns of storage withdrawals due to Winter Storm Fern. A potential record-setting 350+ Bcf withdrawal could flip end-of-season storage from 1.9 Tcf to below 1.6 Tcf, tightening supply. However, warmer weather forecasts threaten to temper this rally. Traders are now on high alert, as hedge fund shorts may get squeezed, making it crucial to monitor upcoming weather patterns and storage reports for direction.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.09
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $5.37
MA(20): $4.25
Current Price is 4.09, 9 day MA 5.37, 20 day MA 4.25
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.381
Signal: 0.2775
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.86
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.86 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 101,440
Avg (20d): 204,497
Ratio: 0.5
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 22.53
%D: 44.61
Stochastic %K: 22.53, %D: 44.61. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 32.21
+DI: 30.62
-DI: 21.21
ADX: 32.21 (+DI: 30.62, -DI: 21.21). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -77.47
Williams %R: -77.47 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.93
Middle: 4.25
Lower: 1.58
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.93, Middle: 4.25, Lower: 1.58
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
298.0 HDD
+79.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
227.0 HDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/24 | 46.0 | 31.0 | +15.0 |
| 01/25 | 45.0 | 31.0 | +14.0 |
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/29 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/30 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01 | 37.0 | 30.0 | +7.0 |
| 02/02 | 33.0 | 30.0 | +3.0 |
| 02/03 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/04 | 32.0 | 31.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/05 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.1
Daily:
0.11 (0.12%)
Weekly:
0.88 (0.92%)
US_10Y
4.24
Daily:
0.01 (0.33%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.66%)
SP500
6939.03
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
-11.2 (-0.16%)
VIX
17.44
Daily:
0.56 (3.32%)
Weekly:
1.29 (7.99%)
GOLD
5067.5
Daily:
-250.9 (-4.72%)
Weekly:
-12.2 (-0.24%)
COPPER
6.01
Daily:
-0.16 (-2.6%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.52%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,625,943
Change: +11,918
Managed Money
-21,934
Change: +55,167
-1.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
25,698
Change: +8,266
1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,069
Change: -37,559
7.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-141,672
Change: -25,283
-8.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: +71,290
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 11.575 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.525 USD/MMBtu (+0.060). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.050 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.575
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-02-01
JKM Prices
11.525
+0.060Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-01
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.050
-0.43%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
14.0
13.2
12.4
11.6
10.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.575 |
| MAR 26 | 13.694 |
| APR 26 | 12.258 |
| MAY 26 | 11.335 |
| JUN 26 | 11.149 |
| JUL 26 | 11.098 |
| AUG 26 | 11.087 |
| SEP 26 | 11.203 |
| OCT 26 | 11.171 |
| NOV 26 | 11.189 |
| DEC 26 | 11.263 |
| JAN 27 | 11.304 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.525 |
| APR 26 | 11.460 |
| MAY 26 | 11.030 |
| JUN 26 | 11.040 |
| JUL 26 | 11.160 |
| AUG 26 | 11.210 |
| SEP 26 | 11.170 |
| OCT 26 | 11.135 |
| NOV 26 | 11.090 |
| DEC 26 | 11.280 |
| JAN 27 | 11.465 |
| FEB 27 | 11.385 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
61
Last Updated:
2026-02-01 23:47:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Prices Can Stay High Despite Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.09
Closest Support:
$3.01
26.41% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
1.22% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.09
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-01 23:47:38
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 12.39%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | $3.59 | $2.01 | $5.16 |
| 2026-02-01 | $4.41 | $2.83 | $5.99 |
| 2026-02-02 | $4.0 | $2.42 | $5.58 |
| 2026-02-03 | $4.48 | $2.91 | $6.06 |
| 2026-02-04 | $4.2 | $2.62 | $5.78 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~12.39% for the next trading day (2026-01-31), reaching $3.59.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 17.0% between 2026-01-31 and 2026-02-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~76.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment with a score of 1/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 12.39%, with a range of 2.01 to 5.16. This presents a short-term opportunity to capitalize on volatility, especially with the downward price trajectory indicated by the forecast. However, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, suggesting that traders should remain cautious and consider the potential for upward movement in the medium term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, indicating tighter supply conditions that may affect production planning. The bullish sentiment in news articles related to oil and natural gas suggests a favorable market environment for producers, despite potential volatility. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, particularly in light of the high heating demand forecasted across various regions. The current sentiment around demand is strong, with headlines indicating rising forecasts, which could support higher production levels.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating high heating demand due to significant heating degree days (HDD), consumers should be prepared for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The fundamental deficit of -22.82 BCFD could lead to tighter supply conditions, increasing the risk of price spikes. Consumers may want to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage costs effectively in this volatile environment, especially given the overall positive market sentiment and rising demand forecasts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a complex picture with a mix of neutral technical indicators and a bullish overall market sentiment. The significant fundamental deficit highlights potential supply risks, while the weather forecasts indicate strong heating demand across regions. The ML price forecast suggests a near-term decline, but the underlying demand sentiment remains robust, indicating possible shifts in the market outlook. Analysts should monitor these factors closely, as they could signal shifts in market dynamics, particularly in response to weather changes and demand fluctuations.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.