Natural Gas Radar

2026-02-02 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 02/02/2026 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is in full swing on the March Contract - and by swing I mean spending most of last week hovering around 3.75 to 3.87 and then Friday a HUGE spike to 4.30+. For perspective last week was winter storm FERN which could be one of the biggest withdrawals we have seen EVER for Nat Gas (we’ll find out on Thursday). Supply-Demand has been stable for most of the winter (not overly bullish or bearish), but now that we’ve had FERN, volatility is back in the mix. After this cold spell, we are expecting a pretty steep drop off (if we believe forecasts). Storage is now set to return to a 1.4-1.6 TCF outlook for End of Season (note 2 weeks ago - most analysts projected 1.9 TCF) One week can change winter. Production has come back online and returned to previous levels (maybe a bcf extra) but demand has been solid too…LNG exports are hovering right around 18 BCFD - so it all comes down to weather which says: Through Feb 10th - bullish demand GWDD, Feb 11-18 - lower than historical GWDD. Monday reset the table closing around the key level of 3.247 - we likely could return to 3.87 pretty quick if weather comes through - but now we just have to wait. * Monday - huge dropoff from the 3.708 open down to 3.247. The volume on todays trading seems to indicate maybe new shorts entering the market (the volume was big and as of Jan 27 - most of the shorts bought back last week). * Tuesday - outlook SHOULD indicate a retracement back up - likely to 3.449 (seems too far too fast) * Rest of the week - SHOULD see a retracement to fill the weekend gap at 3.87

Today's Update

Updated: 2026-02-02 23:47:31 Length: 700 chars
Natural Gas is currently navigating a wild winter ride, recently spiking above $4.30 due to intense weather from winter storm FERN. However, with warmer forecasts and increased US production returning to the market, prices have tumbled back. Storage forecasts have dropped from 1.9 TCF to 1.4-1.6 TCF due to fluctuating demand, primarily influenced by weather patterns. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming weather trends and storage reports for potential volatility, as sentiment shifts rapidly in this market. --- ### Key Developments & Statistics - Natural Gas prices spiked to $4.30 last week due to winter storm FERN. - Current storage projections have dropped significantly from 1.9 TCF to

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.21
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $5.32

MA(20): $4.25

Current Price is 3.21, 9 day MA 5.32, 20 day MA 4.25

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.2317

Signal: 0.2717

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 42.08

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 42.08 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,975

Avg (20d): 210,755

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 4.29

%D: 17.06

Stochastic %K: 4.29, %D: 17.06. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 30.94

+DI: 29.42

-DI: 23.59

ADX: 30.94 (+DI: 29.42, -DI: 23.59). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -95.71

Williams %R: -95.71 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 6.95

Middle: 4.25

Lower: 1.55

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.25, Lower: 1.55

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 109.9 109.7 104.0 103.07
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.07
Canadian Imports 6.0 5.5 6.8 6.13
Total Supply 115.9 115.2 110.8 109.23
Industrial Demand 23.6 21.3 25.4 25.3
Electric Power Demand 34.7 32.9 35.2 34.07
Residential & Commercial 47.0 35.1 38.9 40.97
LNG Exports 18.8 18.3 14.8 14.03
Mexico Exports 5.8 6.3 6.2 5.93
Pipeline Fuel 8.83 8.83 7.8 7.83
Total Demand 138.72 122.72 128.3 128.17
Supply/Demand Balance -22.82 -7.52 -17.5 -18.93

Weather Analysis

Natural Gas Weather Impact: HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand) (Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)

Weather Analysis Summary

Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 293.0 HDD +74.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 224.0 HDD +7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 0.0 CDD +0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 0.0 CDD +0.0 vs Normal

Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)

HDD Analysis
HDD Analysis Chart
CDD Analysis
CDD Analysis Chart
× Zoomed Chart

Detailed Data

Recent HDD Data
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
01/25 45.0 31.0 +14.0
01/26 43.0 32.0 +11.0
01/27 43.0 32.0 +11.0
01/28 41.0 31.0 +10.0
01/29 40.0 31.0 +9.0
01/30 40.0 31.0 +9.0
01/31 41.0 31.0 +10.0
HDD Forecast
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
02/02 33.0 30.0 +3.0
02/03 31.0 30.0 +1.0
02/04 32.0 31.0 +1.0
02/05 32.0 32.0 +0.0
02/06 29.0 32.0 -3.0
02/07 34.0 31.0 +3.0
02/08 33.0 31.0 +2.0
Recent CDD Data
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
01/25 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/26 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/27 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/28 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/29 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/30 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/31 0.0 0.0 +0.0
CDD Forecast
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
02/02 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/03 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/04 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/05 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/06 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/07 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/08 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Region: CONUS Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.44
Daily: 0.45 (0.46%)
Weekly: 1.22 (1.27%)

US_10Y

4.28
Daily: 0.03 (0.8%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.23%)

SP500

6976.44
Daily: 37.41 (0.54%)
Weekly: -2.16 (-0.03%)

VIX

16.34
Daily: -1.1 (-6.31%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.06%)

GOLD

4842.8
Daily: 128.9 (2.73%)
Weekly: -237.1 (-4.67%)

COPPER

5.91
Daily: 0.01 (0.23%)
Weekly: 0.08 (1.41%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,625,943
Change: +11,918

Managed Money

-21,934
Change: +55,167
-1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

25,698
Change: +8,266
1.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

127,069
Change: -37,559
7.8% of OI

Other Reportables

-141,672
Change: -25,283
-8.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

2,035,649
Change: +71,290

Managed Money

59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI

Swap Dealers

-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 11.575 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.525 USD/MMBtu (+0.060). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.050 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.575

+0.000

Front month: FEB 26

As of 2026-02-02

JKM Prices

11.525

+0.060

Front month: MAR 26

As of 2026-02-02

JKM-TTF Spread

-0.050

-0.43%

JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

As of 2026-02-02

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
14.0
13.2
12.4
11.6
10.8
11.57
11.53
FEB 26
13.69
11.46
MAR 26
12.26
11.03
APR 26
11.34
11.04
MAY 26
11.15
11.16
JUN 26
11.10
11.21
JUL 26
11.09
11.17
AUG 26
11.20
11.13
SEP 26
11.17
11.09
OCT 26
11.19
11.28
NOV 26
11.26
11.46
DEC 26
11.30
11.38
JAN 27
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
FEB 26 11.575
MAR 26 13.694
APR 26 12.258
MAY 26 11.335
JUN 26 11.149
JUL 26 11.098
AUG 26 11.087
SEP 26 11.203
OCT 26 11.171
NOV 26 11.189
DEC 26 11.263
JAN 27 11.304
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
MAR 26 11.525
APR 26 11.460
MAY 26 11.030
JUN 26 11.040
JUL 26 11.160
AUG 26 11.210
SEP 26 11.170
OCT 26 11.135
NOV 26 11.090
DEC 26 11.280
JAN 27 11.465
FEB 27 11.385

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.367
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 58
Last Updated: 2026-02-02 23:48:19

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (4 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.21
Closest Support: $3.01 6.23% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.14 28.97% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $3.01 Support
0.236 $4.14 Resistance
0.382 $4.85
0.5 $5.42
0.618 $5.99
0.786 $6.8
1.0 $7.83

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $9.14
1.618 $10.81
2.0 $12.65
2.618 $15.63

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.24
Forecast Generated: 2026-02-02 23:48:20
Next Trading Day: UP 29.81%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2026-02-03 $4.2 $2.57 $5.83
2026-02-04 $3.51 $1.88 $5.14
2026-02-05 $4.41 $2.78 $6.04
2026-02-06 $3.87 $2.24 $5.5
2026-02-07 $4.42 $2.79 $6.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~29.81% for the next trading day (2026-02-03), reaching $4.20.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 5.2% between 2026-02-03 and 2026-02-07.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~80.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment, with a Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. The overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.433.

However, the ML price forecast for the next day indicates a potential increase of 29.81%, suggesting short-term opportunities for traders. Be cautious of volatility given the mixed signals from technical and sentiment analyses.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, producers should evaluate their production levels closely, especially given the bearish market sentiment. The hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in light of potential price volatility driven by weather-related demand.

High heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest indicates a need for readiness to respond to increased consumption, while the overall weather outlook suggests a continued focus on heating resources.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the forecasted increase in heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, which could impact supply reliability.

With the bearish sentiment in the market and a fundamental balance indicating negative trends, consumers may want to consider procurement strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market landscape reveals a complex interplay of factors influencing energy prices. The bearish overall market sentiment, coupled with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, indicates a challenging environment for producers and consumers alike.

However, the ML price forecast suggesting a potential price increase opens avenues for further analysis. The strongest driving factors appear to be weather-related demand and geopolitical factors affecting supply reliability. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely for potential shifts in market outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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