Natural Gas is in full swing on the March Contract - and by swing I mean spending most of last week hovering around 3.75 to 3.87 and then Friday a HUGE spike to 4.30+. For perspective last week was winter storm FERN which could be one of the biggest withdrawals we have seen EVER for Nat Gas (we’ll find out on Thursday). Supply-Demand has been stable for most of the winter (not overly bullish or bearish), but now that we’ve had FERN, volatility is back in the mix. After this cold spell, we are expecting a pretty steep drop off (if we believe forecasts). Storage is now set to return to a 1.4-1.6 TCF outlook for End of Season (note 2 weeks ago - most analysts projected 1.9 TCF) One week can change winter. Production has come back online and returned to previous levels (maybe a bcf extra) but demand has been solid too…LNG exports are hovering right around 18 BCFD - so it all comes down to weather which says: Through Feb 10th - bullish demand GWDD, Feb 11-18 - lower than historical GWDD. Monday reset the table closing around the key level of 3.247 - we likely could return to 3.87 pretty quick if weather comes through - but now we just have to wait.
* Monday - huge dropoff from the 3.708 open down to 3.247. The volume on todays trading seems to indicate maybe new shorts entering the market (the volume was big and as of Jan 27 - most of the shorts bought back last week).
* Tuesday - we retraced up to the 3.30s but that is a weak response to a dollar drop. This is a weakness signal
* Rest of the week - SHOULD see a retracement further up to fill the weekend gap at 3.87…but seems to have some new shorts coming in
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-03 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas is experiencing volatility after a week spent around $3.75-$3.87, spiking to over $4.30 due to winter storm FERN, which may lead to one of the largest withdrawals on record. Current forecasts indicate a potential drop in demand post-storm, with storage outlooks sliding to 1.4-1.6 TCF. Meanwhile, production is stabilizing, and LNG exports remain steady at 18 BCFD. Traders should watch for weather impacts and monitor price movements around key levels—it's a rollercoaster ride, so buckle up!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.33
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $5.15
MA(20): $4.24
Current Price is 3.33, 9 day MA 5.15, 20 day MA 4.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.1068
Signal: 0.239
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.89
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.89 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,888
Avg (20d): 226,857
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 6.78
%D: 13.18
Stochastic %K: 6.78, %D: 13.18. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 29.41
+DI: 28.99
-DI: 23.58
ADX: 29.41 (+DI: 28.99, -DI: 23.58). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.22
Williams %R: -93.22 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.95
Middle: 4.24
Lower: 1.53
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 1.53
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
286.0 HDD
+68.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
219.0 HDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/26 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/27 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/29 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/30 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03 | 30.0 | 30.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 32.0 | 32.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 28.0 | 32.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/07 | 34.0 | 31.0 | +3.0 |
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.36
Daily:
-0.25 (-0.25%)
Weekly:
0.91 (0.95%)
US_10Y
4.27
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.02%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.54%)
SP500
6917.81
Daily:
-58.63 (-0.84%)
Weekly:
-60.22 (-0.86%)
VIX
18.0
Daily:
1.66 (10.16%)
Weekly:
1.65 (10.09%)
GOLD
5089.7
Daily:
467.2 (10.11%)
Weekly:
-211.9 (-4.0%)
COPPER
6.03
Daily:
0.23 (4.02%)
Weekly:
0.14 (2.42%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,625,943
Change: +11,918
Managed Money
-21,934
Change: +55,167
-1.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
25,698
Change: +8,266
1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,069
Change: -37,559
7.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-141,672
Change: -25,283
-8.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: +71,290
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 11.575 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.150 USD/MMBtu (-0.375). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.425 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.575
+0.000Front month: FEB 26
As of 2026-02-03
JKM Prices
11.150
-0.375Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-03
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.425
-3.67%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-03
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| FEB 26 | 11.575 |
| MAR 26 | 11.846 |
| APR 26 | 10.913 |
| MAY 26 | 10.458 |
| JUN 26 | 10.361 |
| JUL 26 | 10.338 |
| AUG 26 | 10.344 |
| SEP 26 | 10.454 |
| OCT 26 | 10.454 |
| NOV 26 | 10.505 |
| DEC 26 | 10.575 |
| JAN 27 | 10.636 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.150 |
| APR 26 | 10.335 |
| MAY 26 | 10.190 |
| JUN 26 | 10.220 |
| JUL 26 | 10.340 |
| AUG 26 | 10.405 |
| SEP 26 | 10.350 |
| OCT 26 | 10.360 |
| NOV 26 | 10.360 |
| DEC 26 | 10.595 |
| JAN 27 | 10.745 |
| FEB 27 | 10.655 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.675
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
57
Last Updated:
2026-02-03 23:47:55
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.75
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Iranian Crude Exports Slump in January, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (5 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Move Higher on a Mixed US Weather Forecast Barchart
- Natural Gas Futures Extend Decline as Weather Warms — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Sink 21% as Warmer Forecasts Emerge Trading Economics
- Natural Gas Prices Fall as Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US NatGas Plunges Amid Warmer Weather Outlook Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.33
Closest Support:
$3.01
9.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
24.32% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.31
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-03 23:47:55
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 15.69%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | $2.79 | $1.16 | $4.42 |
| 2026-02-05 | $3.47 | $1.84 | $5.09 |
| 2026-02-06 | $3.2 | $1.57 | $4.83 |
| 2026-02-07 | $3.53 | $1.9 | $5.16 |
| 2026-02-08 | $3.35 | $1.73 | $4.98 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~15.69% for the next trading day (2026-02-04), reaching $2.79.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 20.1% between 2026-02-04 and 2026-02-08.
- The average confidence interval width is ~100.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment, with a Fibonacci support at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. The bearish overall market sentiment, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.675, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The machine learning forecast predicts a price drop of 15.69% in the next day, suggesting traders should be cautious of short-term volatility.
With fundamental balance at -22.82 BCFD, and a significant decrease of -15.30, traders should monitor for any rapid price movements or shifts in sentiment that could create short-term trading opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas with a score of -0.750, suggests a need for caution in production planning. The negative fundamental balance may impact pricing strategies and demand forecasts, necessitating effective hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue losses.
Additionally, the high heating demand forecast in key regions (Northeast and Midwest) may create localized opportunities, but producers should remain vigilant about the overall market sentiment and adjust production levels accordingly.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the expectation of high heating demand across multiple regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The bearish market sentiment and predicted price drop of 15.69% may provide opportunities for procurement at lower prices, but the risk of supply reliability due to the negative fundamental balance should be carefully considered.
Strategic procurement and hedging may be beneficial in navigating these market conditions, especially with the forecasted downward price trend in the short term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently facing a bearish sentiment, with a significant fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD contributing to this outlook. The high heating demand forecast contrasts with the overall negative sentiment, indicating that while some regions may experience demand spikes, the broader market remains under pressure.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the downward price forecast and assess how geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics might shift market conditions in the near future. Close monitoring of sentiment trends and production adjustments will be critical in anticipating market movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific recommendations.