Natural Gas is in full swing on the March Contract - and by swing I mean spending most of last week hovering around 3.75 to 3.87 and then Friday a HUGE spike to 4.30+. For perspective last week was winter storm FERN which could be one of the biggest withdrawals we have seen EVER for Nat Gas (we’ll find out on Thursday). Supply-Demand has been stable for most of the winter (not overly bullish or bearish), but now that we’ve had FERN, volatility is back in the mix. After this cold spell, we are expecting a pretty steep drop off (if we believe forecasts). Storage is now set to return to a 1.4-1.6 TCF outlook for End of Season (note 2 weeks ago - most analysts projected 1.9 TCF) One week can change winter. Production has come back online and returned to previous levels (maybe a bcf extra) but demand has been solid too…LNG exports are hovering right around 18 BCFD - so it all comes down to weather which says: Through Feb 10th - bullish demand GWDD, Feb 11-18 - lower than historical GWDD. Monday reset the table closing around the key level of 3.247 - we likely could return to 3.87 pretty quick if weather comes through - but now we just have to wait.
* Monday - huge dropoff from the 3.708 open down to 3.247. The volume on todays trading seems to indicate maybe new shorts entering the market (the volume was big and as of Jan 27 - most of the shorts bought back last week).
* Tuesday - we retraced up to the 3.30s but that is a weak response to a dollar drop. This is a weakness signal
* Wednesday saw the retracement to 3.449
* Rest of the week - SHOULD see a retracement further up to fill the weekend gap at 3.87…but seems to have some new shorts coming in
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-04 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has seen significant volatility recently, with last week’s winter storm FERN driving prices up to $4.30 after hovering around $3.75-$3.87. Supply-demand dynamics remain stable, yet forecasts suggest a drop in storage expectations from 1.9 TCF to 1.4-1.6 TCF by season's end. Despite fluctuations, strong LNG export demand around 18 BCFD supports prices. As weather forecasts shift, traders should watch for potential retracements, with key levels around $3.247 and $3.87 to monitor in the coming days.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.46
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.97
MA(20): $4.24
Current Price is 3.46, 9 day MA 4.97, 20 day MA 4.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0153
Signal: 0.194
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.9
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.9 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,229
Avg (20d): 231,493
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 9.48
%D: 6.87
Stochastic %K: 9.48, %D: 6.87. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.14
+DI: 29.09
-DI: 23.08
ADX: 28.14 (+DI: 29.09, -DI: 23.08). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -90.52
Williams %R: -90.52 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.95
Middle: 4.24
Lower: 1.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 1.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
278.0 HDD
+62.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
213.0 HDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/27 | 43.0 | 32.0 | +11.0 |
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/29 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/30 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
| 02/02 | 35.0 | 30.0 | +5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04 | 32.0 | 31.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/06 | 28.0 | 32.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/07 | 32.0 | 31.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/08 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 31.0 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/10 | 28.0 | 30.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.76
Daily:
0.32 (0.33%)
Weekly:
1.48 (1.54%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.0 (0.02%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.14%)
SP500
6882.72
Daily:
-35.09 (-0.51%)
Weekly:
-86.29 (-1.24%)
VIX
18.64
Daily:
0.64 (3.56%)
Weekly:
1.76 (10.43%)
GOLD
4897.1
Daily:
-6.6 (-0.13%)
Weekly:
-421.3 (-7.92%)
COPPER
5.8
Daily:
-0.26 (-4.35%)
Weekly:
-0.38 (-6.1%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,625,943
Change: +11,918
Managed Money
-21,934
Change: +55,167
-1.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
25,698
Change: +8,266
1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,069
Change: -37,559
7.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-141,672
Change: -25,283
-8.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: +71,290
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.515 EUR/MWh (-0.331). JKM prices decreased to 11.130 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.385 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.515
-0.331Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-04
JKM Prices
11.130
-0.020Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-04
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.385
-3.34%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-04
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.2
10.8
10.4
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.515 |
| APR 26 | 10.710 |
| MAY 26 | 10.325 |
| JUN 26 | 10.241 |
| JUL 26 | 10.225 |
| AUG 26 | 10.234 |
| SEP 26 | 10.343 |
| OCT 26 | 10.340 |
| NOV 26 | 10.399 |
| DEC 26 | 10.477 |
| JAN 27 | 10.522 |
| FEB 27 | 10.496 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.130 |
| APR 26 | 10.245 |
| MAY 26 | 10.110 |
| JUN 26 | 10.170 |
| JUL 26 | 10.285 |
| AUG 26 | 10.370 |
| SEP 26 | 10.275 |
| OCT 26 | 10.290 |
| NOV 26 | 10.305 |
| DEC 26 | 10.530 |
| JAN 27 | 10.700 |
| FEB 27 | 10.550 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.625
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
81
Last Updated:
2026-02-04 23:47:51
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.65
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
- US Natgas Prices Rise on Strong LNG Demand Trading Economics
- Iranian Crude Exports Slump in January, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (6 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Move Higher on a Mixed US Weather Forecast Barchart
- Natural Gas Prices Plummet as Weather Looks Warmer — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Natural Gas Futures Extend Decline as Weather Warms — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Sink 21% as Warmer Forecasts Emerge Trading Economics
- Natural Gas Prices Fall as Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US NatGas Plunges Amid Warmer Weather Outlook Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.46
Closest Support:
$3.01
13.01% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
19.65% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.46
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-04 23:47:52
Next Trading Day:
UP 15.42%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | $4.0 | $2.37 | $5.63 |
| 2026-02-06 | $3.94 | $2.31 | $5.57 |
| 2026-02-07 | $4.14 | $2.51 | $5.77 |
| 2026-02-08 | $4.05 | $2.42 | $5.68 |
| 2026-02-09 | $4.06 | $2.43 | $5.69 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~15.42% for the next trading day (2026-02-05), reaching $4.00.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.5% between 2026-02-05 and 2026-02-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~80.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. The fundamental balance is at -22.82 BCFD, suggesting potential for volatility in price movements. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 15.42%, with a range of 2.37 to 5.63. Traders should monitor the convergence of these indicators for short-term opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The bearish overall market sentiment, with a score of -0.650, suggests caution in production planning. The recent news indicates a decrease in demand and production increases in the natural gas sector, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices due to fundamental balance changes and geopolitical factors.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With heating demand expected to be high due to the weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The weather outlook indicates a strong focus on heating (HDD: 30.5), which may lead to tighter supply conditions. Consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against rising prices in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture characterized by a bearish sentiment across key commodities, particularly natural gas and crude oil. The fundamental balance indicates a significant negative shift, while the weather outlook suggests strong heating demand. Analysts should focus on the interplay between these factors and monitor for potential shifts in market dynamics that could influence future price trajectories.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.