Natural Gas is in full swing on the March Contract - and by swing I mean spending most of last week hovering around 3.75 to 3.87 and then Friday a HUGE spike to 4.30+. For perspective last week was winter storm FERN which could be one of the biggest withdrawals we have seen EVER for Nat Gas (we’ll find out on Thursday). Supply-Demand has been stable for most of the winter (not overly bullish or bearish), but now that we’ve had FERN, volatility is back in the mix. After this cold spell, we are expecting a pretty steep drop off (if we believe forecasts). Storage is now set to return to a 1.4-1.6 TCF outlook for End of Season (note 2 weeks ago - most analysts projected 1.9 TCF) One week can change winter. Production has come back online and returned to previous levels (maybe a bcf extra) but demand has been solid too…LNG exports are hovering right around 18 BCFD - so it all comes down to weather which says: Through Feb 10th - bullish demand GWDD, Feb 11-18 - lower than historical GWDD. Monday reset the table closing around the key level of 3.247 - we likely could return to 3.87 pretty quick if weather comes through - but now we just have to wait.
* Monday - huge dropoff from the 3.708 open down to 3.247. The volume on todays trading seems to indicate maybe new shorts entering the market (the volume was big and as of Jan 27 - most of the shorts bought back last week).
* Tuesday - we retraced up to the 3.30s but that is a weak response to a dollar drop. This is a weakness signal
* Wednesday saw the retracement to 3.449
* Thursday was a tug of war between 3.449 and 3.525 with a 360 draw on storage
* Friday is probably a flat move absent any shift in weather….I would say we are closer to the floor and 3.87 is still waiting.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-05 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are experiencing heightened volatility, with prices recently spiking to $4.30 amid winter storm FERN, which is likely to lead to one of the largest withdrawals on record. While supply-demand dynamics have remained stable, forecasts suggest storage could drop to 1.4-1.6 TCF by season's end, down from earlier expectations of 1.9 TCF. As production stabilizes and LNG exports hover around 18 BCFD, traders should watch for weather impacts to gauge future price movements, particularly around the key level of $3.87.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.51
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.78
MA(20): $4.24
Current Price is 3.51, 9 day MA 4.78, 20 day MA 4.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0516
Signal: 0.1449
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.25
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.25 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,201
Avg (20d): 233,678
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 10.13
%D: 8.66
Stochastic %K: 10.13, %D: 8.66. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 27.08
+DI: 29.18
-DI: 22.71
ADX: 27.08 (+DI: 29.18, -DI: 22.71). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -89.87
Williams %R: -89.87 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.95
Middle: 4.24
Lower: 1.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 1.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
267.0 HDD
+53.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
199.0 HDD
-17.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/28 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 01/29 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/30 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
| 02/02 | 35.0 | 30.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/03 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/06 | 28.0 | 32.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/08 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 27.0 | 30.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/10 | 24.0 | 30.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.83
Daily:
0.21 (0.22%)
Weekly:
0.84 (0.87%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.52%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.73%)
SP500
6798.4
Daily:
-84.32 (-1.23%)
Weekly:
-140.63 (-2.03%)
VIX
21.77
Daily:
3.13 (16.79%)
Weekly:
4.33 (24.83%)
GOLD
4840.6
Daily:
-79.8 (-1.62%)
Weekly:
126.7 (2.69%)
COPPER
5.74
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.49%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.68%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,625,943
Change: +11,918
Managed Money
-21,934
Change: +55,167
-1.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
25,698
Change: +8,266
1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,069
Change: -37,559
7.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-141,672
Change: -25,283
-8.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-01-27
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,035,649
Change: +71,290
Managed Money
59,047
Change: +11,547
2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
192,338
Change: -12,099
9.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-307,386
Change: -5,902
-15.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.688 EUR/MWh (+0.173). JKM prices decreased to 11.100 USD/MMBtu (-0.030). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.588 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.688
+0.173Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-05
JKM Prices
11.100
-0.030Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-05
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.588
-5.03%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-05
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.4
10.9
10.5
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.688 |
| APR 26 | 10.837 |
| MAY 26 | 10.448 |
| JUN 26 | 10.384 |
| JUL 26 | 10.384 |
| AUG 26 | 10.392 |
| SEP 26 | 10.514 |
| OCT 26 | 10.504 |
| NOV 26 | 10.587 |
| DEC 26 | 10.668 |
| JAN 27 | 10.703 |
| FEB 27 | 10.674 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.100 |
| APR 26 | 10.295 |
| MAY 26 | 10.195 |
| JUN 26 | 10.315 |
| JUL 26 | 10.455 |
| AUG 26 | 10.530 |
| SEP 26 | 10.455 |
| OCT 26 | 10.450 |
| NOV 26 | 10.490 |
| DEC 26 | 10.760 |
| JAN 27 | 10.905 |
| FEB 27 | 10.725 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.5
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
101
Last Updated:
2026-02-05 23:47:25
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil Slides as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears Trading Economics
- Nat-Gas Prices Plunge as US Production Comes Back Online Barchart
Demand (2 articles)
- Iranian Crude Exports Slump in January, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Rise on Strong LNG Demand Trading Economics
Infrastructure (3 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (4 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Move Higher on a Mixed US Weather Forecast Barchart
- Natural Gas Futures Extend Decline as Weather Warms — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Natgas Prices Sink 21% as Warmer Forecasts Emerge Trading Economics
- Natural Gas Prices Fall as Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.51
Closest Support:
$3.01
14.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
17.95% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.51
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-05 23:47:26
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | $3.52 | $1.89 | $5.15 |
| 2026-02-07 | $3.58 | $1.95 | $5.21 |
| 2026-02-08 | $3.56 | $1.93 | $5.19 |
| 2026-02-09 | $3.56 | $1.93 | $5.19 |
| 2026-02-10 | $3.55 | $1.92 | $5.18 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-02-06), reaching $3.52.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-06 and 2026-02-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~91.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. The fundamental balance is reported at -22.82 BCFD, reflecting a significant change of -15.30, which may lead to volatility in the market.
With a ML price forecast indicating a potential increase of 0.43%, traders should monitor price movements closely for short-term opportunities, particularly around the support and resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bearish market sentiment, with a score of -0.500, coupled with the fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, suggests a need for cautious production planning. Producers should consider adjusting output levels in response to fluctuating demand driven by high heating needs across regions.
Given the market sentiment and the news surrounding supply recovery, hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The weather outlook indicates significant heating degree days (HDD), which could strain supply and lead to increased prices.
As the market sentiment remains bearish, consumers should consider procurement strategies that lock in prices to mitigate future cost risks, especially given the potential for volatility in the upcoming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently facing a bearish sentiment overall, driven by a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD and a neutral technical outlook. The weather outlook suggests high heating demand, which may support prices in the short term despite the bearish sentiment.
Key driving factors to watch include geopolitical developments, supply recovery narratives, and regional demand patterns, which could shift the market outlook. Analysts should remain vigilant for any changes in these dynamics that could influence price trajectories.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.