Natural Gas Radar

2026-02-06 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 02/06/2026 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural gas went from polite to violent in one storm, trading calmly at $3.75–$3.87 before Winter Storm Fern launched prices above $4.30. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to deficit and collapsed end-of-season expectations from ~1.9 Tcf to 1.4–1.6 Tcf in one week. Production freeze-offs took nearly 50 Bcf/d offline at peak, but supply has since snapped back close to prior levels. LNG feedgas flows are holding near 18–18.5 Bcf/d, keeping a structural bid under the market even as weather moderates. Monday’s flush back to $3.247 reset the chessboard and invited fresh shorts, despite most legacy shorts already covering last week. From here, gas is a pure weather referendum, not a fundamentals debate. Hit List – Stats, What to Watch & Today’s Take * Storage: −360 Bcf draw, largest on record * EOS storage outlook: 1.4–1.6 Tcf * Production: Back near ~107 Bcf/d, recovering fast * LNG exports: ~18–18.5 Bcf/d, near record * Weather: Bullish GWDD through Feb 10, weaker Feb 11–18 * Key levels: $3.247 (floor), $3.449–3.525 (battle zone), $3.87 (unfinished business) * Assessment today: Volatility is back, conviction is not. Without renewed cold, rallies struggle; with cold, $3.87 re-enters the chat quickly.

Today's Update

Updated: 2026-02-06 23:46:15 Length: 540 chars
Natural gas has shifted from a calm $3.75–$3.87 to a stormy $4.30, driven by Winter Storm Fern and a record 360 Bcf withdrawal, flipping inventories to a deficit. Currently, production is rebounding near 107 Bcf/d, supported by steady LNG feedgas flows around 18–18.5 Bcf/d. As weather moderates, prices dipped back to $3.247, indicating heightened volatility. With weather as the main influencer, traders should watch for cold snaps to revive rallies or risk a prolonged struggle around current levels. Keep your hats on; it's a wild ride!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.4
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $4.4

MA(20): $4.24

Current Price is 3.4, 9 day MA 4.4, 20 day MA 4.24

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.1116

Signal: 0.0936

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.57

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.57 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 180,704

Avg (20d): 242,961

Ratio: 0.74

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 5.35

%D: 8.35

Stochastic %K: 5.35, %D: 8.35. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 26.18

+DI: 29.03

-DI: 21.81

ADX: 26.18 (+DI: 29.03, -DI: 21.81). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -94.65

Williams %R: -94.65 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 6.95

Middle: 4.24

Lower: 1.54

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 1.54

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 109.9 109.7 104.0 103.07
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.07
Canadian Imports 6.0 5.5 6.8 6.13
Total Supply 115.9 115.2 110.8 109.23
Industrial Demand 23.6 21.3 25.4 25.3
Electric Power Demand 34.7 32.9 35.2 34.07
Residential & Commercial 47.0 35.1 38.9 40.97
LNG Exports 18.8 18.3 14.8 14.03
Mexico Exports 5.8 6.3 6.2 5.93
Pipeline Fuel 8.83 8.83 7.8 7.83
Total Demand 138.72 122.72 128.3 128.17
Supply/Demand Balance -22.82 -7.52 -17.5 -18.93

Weather Analysis

Natural Gas Weather Impact: HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand) (Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)

Weather Analysis Summary

Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 257.0 HDD +43.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 193.0 HDD -21.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 0.0 CDD +0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 0.0 CDD +0.0 vs Normal

Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)

HDD Analysis
HDD Analysis Chart
CDD Analysis
CDD Analysis Chart
× Zoomed Chart

Detailed Data

Recent HDD Data
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
01/29 40.0 31.0 +9.0
01/30 40.0 31.0 +9.0
01/31 41.0 31.0 +10.0
02/01 38.0 30.0 +8.0
02/02 35.0 30.0 +5.0
02/03 32.0 30.0 +2.0
02/04 31.0 31.0 +0.0
HDD Forecast
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
02/06 27.0 32.0 -5.0
02/07 34.0 31.0 +3.0
02/08 32.0 31.0 +1.0
02/09 28.0 30.0 -2.0
02/10 25.0 30.0 -5.0
02/11 23.0 30.0 -7.0
02/12 24.0 30.0 -6.0
Recent CDD Data
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
01/29 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/30 0.0 0.0 +0.0
01/31 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/01 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/02 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/03 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/04 0.0 0.0 +0.0
CDD Forecast
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
02/06 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/07 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/08 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/09 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/10 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/11 0.0 0.0 +0.0
02/12 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Region: CONUS Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.68
Daily: -0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly: 0.07 (0.07%)

US_10Y

4.21
Daily: -0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.61%)

SP500

6932.3
Daily: 133.9 (1.97%)
Weekly: -44.14 (-0.63%)

VIX

20.37
Daily: -1.4 (-6.43%)
Weekly: 4.03 (24.66%)

GOLD

4988.6
Daily: 127.2 (2.62%)
Weekly: 366.1 (7.92%)

COPPER

5.89
Daily: 0.09 (1.53%)
Weekly: 0.09 (1.48%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,655,983
Change: +30,040

Managed Money

-47
Change: +21,887
-0.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

36,549
Change: +10,851
2.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

126,907
Change: -162
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-172,263
Change: -30,591
-10.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

2,091,314
Change: +55,665

Managed Money

76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.747 EUR/MWh (+0.059). JKM prices decreased to 11.080 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.667 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.747

+0.059

Front month: MAR 26

As of 2026-02-06

JKM Prices

11.080

-0.020

Front month: MAR 26

As of 2026-02-06

JKM-TTF Spread

-0.667

-5.68%

JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

As of 2026-02-06

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.9
11.4
11.0
10.6
10.1
11.75
11.08
MAR 26
10.91
10.42
APR 26
10.50
10.26
MAY 26
10.41
10.33
JUN 26
10.39
10.52
JUL 26
10.38
10.58
AUG 26
10.51
10.47
SEP 26
10.51
10.48
OCT 26
10.58
10.48
NOV 26
10.64
10.72
DEC 26
10.68
10.87
JAN 27
10.64
10.72
FEB 27
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
MAR 26 11.747
APR 26 10.909
MAY 26 10.498
JUN 26 10.409
JUL 26 10.387
AUG 26 10.385
SEP 26 10.507
OCT 26 10.506
NOV 26 10.576
DEC 26 10.642
JAN 27 10.681
FEB 27 10.636
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
MAR 26 11.080
APR 26 10.420
MAY 26 10.255
JUN 26 10.330
JUL 26 10.515
AUG 26 10.580
SEP 26 10.475
OCT 26 10.480
NOV 26 10.480
DEC 26 10.720
JAN 27 10.870
FEB 27 10.720

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.067
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 97
Last Updated: 2026-02-06 23:47:09

Commodity Sentiment

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Infrastructure (4 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.4
Closest Support: $3.01 11.47% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.14 21.76% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $3.01 Support
0.236 $4.14 Resistance
0.382 $4.85
0.5 $5.42
0.618 $5.99
0.786 $6.8
1.0 $7.83

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $9.14
1.618 $10.81
2.0 $12.65
2.618 $15.63

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.51
Forecast Generated: 2026-02-06 23:47:10
Next Trading Day: UP 0.43%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2026-02-06 $3.52 $1.89 $5.15
2026-02-07 $3.58 $1.95 $5.21
2026-02-08 $3.56 $1.93 $5.19
2026-02-09 $3.56 $1.93 $5.19
2026-02-10 $3.55 $1.92 $5.18

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-02-06), reaching $3.52.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-06 and 2026-02-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~91.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is neutral, indicated by a sentiment score of +0.067. This suggests that traders should be cautious about making aggressive moves. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01, while resistance is at 4.14. Given the ML price forecast predicting a slight increase of 0.43%, traders can look for short-term opportunities near the support level, but should be wary of volatility given the neutral technical interpretation.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at -22.82 BCFD, reflecting a significant decrease in supply, which may indicate tightening market conditions. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the high heating demand forecasted, especially in regions like the Northeast and Midwest where heating demand is expected to be high. Additionally, the neutral sentiment suggests that hedging strategies may need to be re-evaluated to mitigate risk from potential price fluctuations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With a high heating demand expected, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The fundamental balance indicates a supply deficit, which could lead to increased prices. Utilities and industrial consumers should consider proactive procurement strategies or hedging to manage costs effectively as the market sentiment remains neutral.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a complex picture with a neutral sentiment overall, but the fundamental balance indicates a significant supply deficit of -22.82 BCFD. The weather outlook shows high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could drive prices upward in the short term. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on crude oil prices, as current sentiment is bearish for crude due to geopolitical risks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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