Natural gas went from polite to violent in one storm, trading calmly at $3.75–$3.87 before Winter Storm Fern launched prices above $4.30. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to deficit and collapsed end-of-season expectations from ~1.9 Tcf to 1.4–1.6 Tcf in one week. Production freeze-offs took nearly 50 Bcf/d offline at peak, but supply has since snapped back close to prior levels. LNG feedgas flows are holding near 18–18.5 Bcf/d, keeping a structural bid under the market even as weather moderates. Monday’s flush back to $3.247 reset the chessboard and invited fresh shorts, despite most legacy shorts already covering last week. From here, gas is a pure weather referendum, not a fundamentals debate.
Hit List – Stats, What to Watch & Today’s Take
* Storage: −360 Bcf draw, largest on record
* EOS storage outlook: 1.4–1.6 Tcf
* Production: Back near ~107 Bcf/d, recovering fast
* LNG exports: ~18–18.5 Bcf/d, near record
* Weather: Bullish GWDD through Feb 10, weaker Feb 11–18
* Key levels: $3.247 (floor), $3.449–3.525 (battle zone), $3.87 (unfinished business)
* Assessment today: Volatility is back, conviction is not. Without renewed cold, rallies struggle; with cold, $3.87 re-enters the chat quickly.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-07 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have taken a wild ride recently, spiking above $4.30 due to Winter Storm Fern and a record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal, flipping inventories from surplus to deficit. However, production has rebounded to ~107 Bcf/d, and LNG exports remain robust at ~18–18.5 Bcf/d, supporting market strength. Despite recent volatility, the outlook hinges on weather patterns. Key levels to watch are $3.247 as a floor and $3.87 for potential resistance. As we navigate this rollercoaster, keep your warm hats handy and your eyes on the forecasts!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.42
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.4
MA(20): $4.24
Current Price is 3.42, 9 day MA 4.4, 20 day MA 4.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1102
Signal: 0.0939
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.68
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.68 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 202,389
Avg (20d): 244,046
Ratio: 0.83
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 5.71
%D: 8.47
Stochastic %K: 5.71, %D: 8.47. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.18
+DI: 29.02
-DI: 21.8
ADX: 26.18 (+DI: 29.02, -DI: 21.8). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -94.29
Williams %R: -94.29 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.95
Middle: 4.24
Lower: 1.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 1.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
248.0 HDD
+33.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
195.0 HDD
-18.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/30 | 40.0 | 31.0 | +9.0 |
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
| 02/02 | 35.0 | 30.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/03 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | 34.0 | 31.0 | +3.0 |
| 02/08 | 32.0 | 31.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/09 | 28.0 | 30.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/10 | 24.0 | 30.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/11 | 24.0 | 30.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 27.0 | 31.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.63
Daily:
-0.19 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.02%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.61%)
SP500
6932.3
Daily:
133.9 (1.97%)
Weekly:
-44.14 (-0.63%)
VIX
20.37
Daily:
-1.4 (-6.43%)
Weekly:
4.03 (24.66%)
GOLD
4951.2
Daily:
89.8 (1.85%)
Weekly:
328.7 (7.11%)
COPPER
5.86
Daily:
0.06 (1.11%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.07%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,655,983
Change: +30,040
Managed Money
-47
Change: +21,887
-0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
36,549
Change: +10,851
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
126,907
Change: -162
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-172,263
Change: -30,591
-10.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: +55,665
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 12.277 EUR/MWh (+0.530). JKM prices increased to 11.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.025). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.172 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
12.277
+0.530Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-07
JKM Prices
11.105
+0.025Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-07
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.172
-9.55%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-07
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.9
11.4
10.9
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 12.277 |
| APR 26 | 11.393 |
| MAY 26 | 10.905 |
| JUN 26 | 10.777 |
| JUL 26 | 10.735 |
| AUG 26 | 10.751 |
| SEP 26 | 10.885 |
| OCT 26 | 10.897 |
| NOV 26 | 10.962 |
| DEC 26 | 11.023 |
| JAN 27 | 11.063 |
| FEB 27 | 11.002 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.105 |
| APR 26 | 10.760 |
| MAY 26 | 10.570 |
| JUN 26 | 10.645 |
| JUL 26 | 10.750 |
| AUG 26 | 10.850 |
| SEP 26 | 10.755 |
| OCT 26 | 10.780 |
| NOV 26 | 10.790 |
| DEC 26 | 11.000 |
| JAN 27 | 11.190 |
| FEB 27 | 11.005 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.083
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
72
Last Updated:
2026-02-07 23:46:58
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.65
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Warm Temps and Higher Production Barchart
- Oil Slides as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (2 articles)
- US natural gas futures climb 3% on LNG exports and storage drop Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Rise on Strong LNG Demand Trading Economics
Infrastructure (4 articles)
- US natural gas futures climb 3% on LNG exports and storage drop Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Fall After Smaller-than-expected Storage Draw Trading Economics
- US natgas futures rise 2% ahead of expected record storage draw Reuters
- US TSY'S BESSENT Q&A/SENATE BANKING: NEW ENGLAND HAS MADE THE DECISION TO DEINDUSTRIALIZE; ECONOMY HURT WHEN STATES BLOCK PIPELINES Mace News
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.42
Closest Support:
$3.01
11.99% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
21.05% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-07 23:46:59
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.87%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | $3.49 | $1.86 | $5.11 |
| 2026-02-08 | $3.46 | $1.83 | $5.08 |
| 2026-02-09 | $3.47 | $1.84 | $5.09 |
| 2026-02-10 | $3.45 | $1.83 | $5.08 |
| 2026-02-11 | $3.46 | $1.84 | $5.09 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.87% for the next trading day (2026-02-07), reaching $3.49.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-07 and 2026-02-11.
- The average confidence interval width is ~93.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market is currently showing a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01 while resistance is at 4.14. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance is at -22.82 BCFD with a significant change of -15.30, indicating potential volatility. The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 1.87% with a range between 1.86 and 5.11. This could present short-term opportunities, but the overall market sentiment remains neutral, suggesting caution.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the fundamental balance showing a significant deficit of -22.82 BCFD, producers may need to adjust their production planning accordingly. The news sentiment around natural gas is relatively positive, with a score of +0.600, indicating strong demand due to LNG exports and a storage drop. However, the geopolitical sentiment for crude oil is negative, scoring -0.700, which may affect hedging strategies. Producers should remain vigilant to adapt to these fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The weather outlook indicates high heating demand with heating degree days (HDD) significantly elevated, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. This suggests potential increases in natural gas prices, impacting overall costs for consumers. The fundamental balance is also negative at -22.82 BCFD, which could lead to supply reliability risks, especially during peak demand periods. Consumers should consider proactive procurement strategies to hedge against potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market conditions present a mixed picture. The technical indicators are neutral, with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD indicating bearish pressure. The weather outlook favors heating demand, particularly in colder regions, while the overall market sentiment is neutral with a slight bullish tilt for natural gas. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical factors affecting crude oil and the potential impact of LNG exports on natural gas prices, as these are pivotal in forecasting market shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.