Natural gas went from polite to violent in one storm, trading calmly at $3.75–$3.87 before Winter Storm Fern launched prices above $4.30. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to deficit and collapsed end-of-season expectations from ~1.9 Tcf to 1.4–1.6 Tcf in one week. Production freeze-offs took nearly 50 Bcf/d offline at peak, but supply has since snapped back close to prior levels. LNG feedgas flows are holding near 18–18.5 Bcf/d, keeping a structural bid under the market even as weather moderates. Monday’s flush back to $3.247 reset the chessboard and invited fresh shorts, despite most legacy shorts already covering last week. From here, gas is a pure weather referendum, not a fundamentals debate.
Hit List – Stats, What to Watch & Today’s Take
* Storage: −360 Bcf draw, largest on record
* EOS storage outlook: 1.4–1.6 Tcf
* Production: Back near ~107 Bcf/d, recovering fast
* LNG exports: ~18–18.5 Bcf/d, near record
* Weather: Bullish GWDD through Feb 10, weaker Feb 11–18
* Key levels: $3.247 (floor), $3.449–3.525 (battle zone), $3.87 (unfinished business)
* Assessment today: Volatility is back, conviction is not. Without renewed cold, rallies struggle; with cold, $3.87 re-enters the chat quickly.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-08 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have seen dramatic swings recently, with a leap above $4.30 following a record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal due to Winter Storm Fern. However, prices retreated to around $3.247 as warmer temperatures and rising production (nearly 107 Bcf/d) eased concerns. LNG exports remain robust at 18–18.5 Bcf/d, providing a structural bid. Going forward, prices are closely tied to weather patterns, with volatility expected. Watch for shifts that could push prices back toward the $3.87 mark amid fluctuating cold weather.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.21
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.99
MA(20): $4.25
Current Price is 3.21, 9 day MA 3.99, 20 day MA 4.25
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1718
Signal: 0.0407
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.23
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.23 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 10,800
Avg (20d): 228,475
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.22
%D: 5.7
Stochastic %K: 1.22, %D: 5.7. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.04
+DI: 28.39
-DI: 23.15
ADX: 25.04 (+DI: 28.39, -DI: 23.15). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.78
Williams %R: -98.78 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.95
Middle: 4.25
Lower: 1.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.95, Middle: 4.25, Lower: 1.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
237.0 HDD
+21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
187.0 HDD
-24.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/31 | 41.0 | 31.0 | +10.0 |
| 02/01 | 38.0 | 30.0 | +8.0 |
| 02/02 | 35.0 | 30.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/03 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/06 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | 32.0 | 31.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/09 | 28.0 | 30.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/10 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/11 | 23.0 | 30.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 27.0 | 31.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/14 | 28.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.58
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
0.14 (0.15%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.61%)
SP500
6932.3
Daily:
133.9 (1.97%)
Weekly:
-44.14 (-0.63%)
VIX
20.37
Daily:
-1.4 (-6.43%)
Weekly:
4.03 (24.66%)
GOLD
5039.4
Daily:
88.2 (1.78%)
Weekly:
135.7 (2.77%)
COPPER
5.89
Daily:
0.03 (0.51%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.79%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,655,983
Change: +30,040
Managed Money
-47
Change: +21,887
-0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
36,549
Change: +10,851
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
126,907
Change: -162
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-172,263
Change: -30,591
-10.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: +55,665
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 12.277 EUR/MWh (+0.530). JKM prices increased to 11.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.025). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.172 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
12.277
+0.530Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-08
JKM Prices
11.105
+0.025Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-08
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.172
-9.55%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-08
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.4
11.9
11.4
10.9
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 12.277 |
| APR 26 | 11.393 |
| MAY 26 | 10.905 |
| JUN 26 | 10.777 |
| JUL 26 | 10.735 |
| AUG 26 | 10.751 |
| SEP 26 | 10.885 |
| OCT 26 | 10.897 |
| NOV 26 | 10.962 |
| DEC 26 | 11.023 |
| JAN 27 | 11.063 |
| FEB 27 | 11.002 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.105 |
| APR 26 | 10.760 |
| MAY 26 | 10.570 |
| JUN 26 | 10.645 |
| JUL 26 | 10.750 |
| AUG 26 | 10.850 |
| SEP 26 | 10.755 |
| OCT 26 | 10.780 |
| NOV 26 | 10.790 |
| DEC 26 | 11.000 |
| JAN 27 | 11.190 |
| FEB 27 | 11.005 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.067
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2026-02-08 23:46:59
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (4 articles)
- US natural gas futures climb 3% on LNG exports and storage drop Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Fall After Smaller-than-expected Storage Draw Trading Economics
- US natgas futures rise 2% ahead of expected record storage draw Reuters
- US TSY'S BESSENT Q&A/SENATE BANKING: NEW ENGLAND HAS MADE THE DECISION TO DEINDUSTRIALIZE; ECONOMY HURT WHEN STATES BLOCK PIPELINES Mace News
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.21
Closest Support:
$3.01
6.23% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
28.97% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-08 23:47:00
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.87%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | $3.49 | $1.86 | $5.11 |
| 2026-02-08 | $3.46 | $1.83 | $5.08 |
| 2026-02-09 | $3.47 | $1.84 | $5.09 |
| 2026-02-10 | $3.45 | $1.83 | $5.08 |
| 2026-02-11 | $3.46 | $1.84 | $5.09 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.87% for the next trading day (2026-02-07), reaching $3.49.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-07 and 2026-02-11.
- The average confidence interval width is ~93.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral outlook. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. With a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, traders should be cautious as this indicates a tighter supply situation. The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 1.87% in the next day, presenting a possible short-term trading opportunity. However, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating volatility may be limited.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, suggesting a tightening supply that could affect pricing. The neutral sentiment in the market indicates a stable demand environment, but the positive sentiment surrounding natural gas (+0.400) highlights potential for favorable pricing conditions. Producers are advised to review their hedging strategies in light of the expected increase in prices and the potential for higher demand due to weather forecasts indicating high heating demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With heating demand expected to be high across regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The fundamental balance indicates a tighter supply, which could lead to price increases. The risks associated with supply reliability should also be considered, particularly as the market sentiment remains cautious. It may be prudent for consumers to explore procurement strategies or hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a mixed picture. The neutral sentiment and the fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD suggest cautious optimism. Key drivers include high heating demand due to weather forecasts and positive sentiment regarding natural gas supply. However, geopolitical risks affecting crude oil prices present a bearish factor. Analysts should monitor the ML price forecast for shifts in market dynamics and adjust outlooks accordingly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.