Natural gas went from polite to violent in one storm, trading calmly at $3.75–$3.87 before Winter Storm Fern launched prices above $4.30 but quickly reversed as weather disappeared. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to deficit and collapsed end-of-season expectations from ~1.9 Tcf to 1.4–1.6 Tcf in one week. Production freeze-offs took nearly 50 Bcf/d offline at peak, but supply has since snapped back close to prior levels. LNG feedgas flows are holding near 18–18.5 Bcf/d, keeping a structural bid under the market even as weather moderates. Monday’s flush back to $3.247 reset the chessboard and invited fresh shorts, despite most legacy shorts already covering last week. From here, gas is a pure weather referendum, not a fundamentals debate.
Daily Hit List
* Monday trading continued the downslide from the 3.247 open down to 3.127. Weather models are terrible - looking at weather: https://www.wxrogue.com/ the downslide is likely there to continue. Technicals should bring us back up to the 3.50s but the key question is when.
* Tuesday tried to make a run on some early morning cold forecasts, but midday forecasts showed much more moderate to bearish demand forecast. Food for thought - this summer could have some HUGE upticks on demand….snowpack in the west could impact hydropower loads this summer (translation when low snowpack exists - hydropower has less electricity that can be generated that results in a LOT more NG Power demand)
* Wednesday shows a bit of a retracement up and has held support on 3.127 which is positive indications for a potential gap fill to (3.449). Weather is still bearish for the rest of February but we all know that weather forecasts can change quickly and we still have March that could hold some cold potential - but at this point the next 60 days is all about weather, after that then we ask questions about LNG shipouts which could lean bearish.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-11 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices recently experienced a dramatic swing, skyrocketing above $4.30 due to Winter Storm Fern before retreating as milder weather took hold. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to a deficit, significantly lowering end-of-season expectations. While LNG feedgas flows remain robust at 18–18.5 Bcf/d, the market's direction now hinges on weather forecasts. As traders navigate this volatile landscape, the interplay of weather and LNG demand will be crucial for future pricing movements.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- Prices surged above $4.30 due to Winter Storm Fern but retreated.
- A record withdrawal of 360 Bcf shifted inventories to a deficit.
- LNG feedgas
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 16.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.23
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.42
MA(20): $4.22
Current Price is 3.23, 9 day MA 3.42, 20 day MA 4.22
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2599
Signal: -0.0635
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.75
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.75 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,176
Avg (20d): 226,355
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 3.5
%D: 1.74
Stochastic %K: 3.5, %D: 1.74. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.51
+DI: 27.57
-DI: 23.64
ADX: 22.51 (+DI: 27.57, -DI: 23.64). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -96.5
Williams %R: -96.5 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.22
Lower: 1.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.22, Lower: 1.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 115.9 | 115.2 | 110.8 | 109.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.6 | 21.3 | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.7 | 32.9 | 35.2 | 34.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.0 | 35.1 | 38.9 | 40.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 138.72 | 122.72 | 128.3 | 128.17 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.82 | -7.52 | -17.5 | -18.93 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
218.0 HDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
161.0 HDD
-43.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03 | 32.0 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/06 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | 24.0 | 30.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 23.0 | 29.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/15 | 22.0 | 28.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 20.0 | 28.0 | -8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.88
Daily:
0.08 (0.08%)
Weekly:
-0.94 (-0.96%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.03 (0.6%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-0.9%)
SP500
6941.47
Daily:
-0.34 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
143.07 (2.1%)
VIX
17.65
Daily:
-0.14 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
-4.12 (-18.93%)
GOLD
5081.1
Daily:
77.3 (1.54%)
Weekly:
219.7 (4.52%)
COPPER
5.97
Daily:
0.08 (1.29%)
Weekly:
0.17 (2.98%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,655,983
Change: +30,040
Managed Money
-47
Change: +21,887
-0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
36,549
Change: +10,851
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
126,907
Change: -162
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-172,263
Change: -30,591
-10.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: +55,665
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.433 EUR/MWh (-0.374). JKM prices decreased to 11.015 USD/MMBtu (-0.030). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.418 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.433
-0.374Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-11
JKM Prices
11.015
-0.030Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-11
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.418
-3.66%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-11
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.2
10.8
10.4
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.433 |
| APR 26 | 10.623 |
| MAY 26 | 10.394 |
| JUN 26 | 10.330 |
| JUL 26 | 10.322 |
| AUG 26 | 10.336 |
| SEP 26 | 10.470 |
| OCT 26 | 10.526 |
| NOV 26 | 10.636 |
| DEC 26 | 10.708 |
| JAN 27 | 10.763 |
| FEB 27 | 10.728 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.015 |
| APR 26 | 10.220 |
| MAY 26 | 10.165 |
| JUN 26 | 10.310 |
| JUL 26 | 10.480 |
| AUG 26 | 10.550 |
| SEP 26 | 10.475 |
| OCT 26 | 10.505 |
| NOV 26 | 10.565 |
| DEC 26 | 10.740 |
| JAN 27 | 10.915 |
| FEB 27 | 10.805 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
65
Last Updated:
2026-02-11 23:47:48
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.23
Closest Support:
$3.01
6.81% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
28.17% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.16
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-11 23:47:49
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.67%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | $3.18 | $1.58 | $4.78 |
| 2026-02-13 | $3.2 | $1.59 | $4.8 |
| 2026-02-14 | $3.21 | $1.6 | $4.81 |
| 2026-02-15 | $3.21 | $1.6 | $4.81 |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.2 | $1.6 | $4.81 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.67% for the next trading day (2026-02-12), reaching $3.18.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-12 and 2026-02-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~100.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment overall, with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD, suggesting a tighter supply. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and a resistance level at 4.14. The ML price forecast indicates a potential upward movement of 0.67% in the short term, with a range of 1.58 to 4.78. This may present short-term trading opportunities, but caution is advised given the overall neutral sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD indicates potential production adjustments may be necessary to align with supply-demand dynamics. The market sentiment surrounding natural gas is currently negative (-0.600), which could affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risk against potential price declines, especially as demand sentiment is also weak (-0.433). Monitoring inventory levels and geopolitical factors will be crucial for operational planning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral with a fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD. The ML forecast suggests a slight price increase, which may influence procurement strategies. It is essential to stay informed about supply reliability risks, particularly in light of the demand sentiment (-0.433) and the impact of weather forecasts that are currently unavailable.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with significant factors influencing both supply and demand. The fundamental balance of -22.82 BCFD suggests tightening conditions, while the demand sentiment is concerning (-0.433). The ML price forecast indicates a potential upward movement, yet the overall market sentiment remains mixed. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels as they could shift the market outlook significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.