Natural gas went from polite to violent in one storm, trading calmly at $3.75–$3.87 before Winter Storm Fern launched prices above $4.30 but quickly reversed as weather disappeared. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to deficit and collapsed end-of-season expectations from ~1.9 Tcf to 1.4–1.6 Tcf in one week. Production freeze-offs took nearly 50 Bcf/d offline at peak, but supply has since snapped back close to prior levels. LNG feedgas flows are holding near 18–18.5 Bcf/d, keeping a structural bid under the market even as weather moderates. Monday’s flush back to $3.247 reset the chessboard and invited fresh shorts, despite most legacy shorts already covering last week. From here, gas is a pure weather referendum, not a fundamentals debate.
Daily Hit List
* Monday trading continued the downslide from the 3.247 open down to 3.127. Weather models are terrible - looking at weather: https://www.wxrogue.com/ the downslide is likely there to continue. Technicals should bring us back up to the 3.50s but the key question is when.
* Tuesday tried to make a run on some early morning cold forecasts, but midday forecasts showed much more moderate to bearish demand forecast. Food for thought - this summer could have some HUGE upticks on demand….snowpack in the west could impact hydropower loads this summer (translation when low snowpack exists - hydropower has less electricity that can be generated that results in a LOT more NG Power demand)
* Wednesday shows a bit of a retracement up and has held support on 3.127 which is positive indications for a potential gap fill to (3.449). Weather is still bearish for the rest of February but we all know that weather forecasts can change quickly and we still have March that could hold some cold potential - but at this point the next 60 days is all about weather, after that then we ask questions about LNG shipouts which could lean bearish.
* Thursday storage came out on the lower side with Reuters survey being 257 and a 249 print on storage withdrawal. After rallying from 3.127 to 3.30, NG settled close to the key bull/bear line of 3.247.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-12 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has seen a rollercoaster ride lately, spiking above $4.30 due to Winter Storm Fern before retreating as warmer forecasts took center stage. A record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal flipped inventories from surplus to a deficit, pushing end-of-season expectations down to 1.4–1.6 Tcf. Current trading is now heavily influenced by weather patterns, with LNG feedgas flows holding steady near 18–18.5 Bcf/d. As forecasts fluctuate, traders should keep a close eye on weather developments and potential shifts in LNG exports for future price movements.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.19
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.28
MA(20): $4.22
Current Price is 3.19, 9 day MA 3.28, 20 day MA 4.22
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2874
Signal: -0.1092
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.4
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.4 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,252
Avg (20d): 224,235
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.85
%D: 2.05
Stochastic %K: 2.85, %D: 2.05. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.48
+DI: 27.25
-DI: 23.24
ADX: 21.48 (+DI: 27.25, -DI: 23.24). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.15
Williams %R: -97.15 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.22
Lower: 1.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.22, Lower: 1.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
212.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
151.0 HDD
-50.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04 | 31.0 | 31.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/06 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 22.0 | 29.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/15 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 19.0 | 28.0 | -9.0 |
| 02/18 | 17.0 | 27.0 | -10.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.98
Daily:
0.15 (0.16%)
Weekly:
-0.65 (-0.66%)
US_10Y
4.1
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.63%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-2.43%)
SP500
6832.76
Daily:
-108.71 (-1.57%)
Weekly:
-99.54 (-1.44%)
VIX
20.82
Daily:
3.17 (17.96%)
Weekly:
0.45 (2.21%)
GOLD
5001.5
Daily:
-70.1 (-1.38%)
Weekly:
50.3 (1.02%)
COPPER
5.84
Daily:
-0.11 (-1.84%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.41%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,655,983
Change: +30,040
Managed Money
-47
Change: +21,887
-0.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
36,549
Change: +10,851
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
126,907
Change: -162
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-172,263
Change: -30,591
-10.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,091,314
Change: +55,665
Managed Money
76,760
Change: +17,713
3.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
170,640
Change: -21,698
8.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,139
Change: -15,753
-15.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.472 EUR/MWh (+0.039). JKM prices decreased to 11.010 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.462 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.472
+0.039Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-12
JKM Prices
11.010
-0.005Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-12
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.462
-4.03%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-12
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.2
10.9
10.5
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.472 |
| APR 26 | 10.631 |
| MAY 26 | 10.431 |
| JUN 26 | 10.357 |
| JUL 26 | 10.347 |
| AUG 26 | 10.364 |
| SEP 26 | 10.492 |
| OCT 26 | 10.548 |
| NOV 26 | 10.650 |
| DEC 26 | 10.735 |
| JAN 27 | 10.791 |
| FEB 27 | 10.753 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.010 |
| APR 26 | 10.285 |
| MAY 26 | 10.250 |
| JUN 26 | 10.355 |
| JUL 26 | 10.510 |
| AUG 26 | 10.620 |
| SEP 26 | 10.540 |
| OCT 26 | 10.555 |
| NOV 26 | 10.600 |
| DEC 26 | 10.865 |
| JAN 27 | 10.410 |
| FEB 27 | 10.325 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
81
Last Updated:
2026-02-12 23:47:35
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (5 articles)
- Oil prices fall on supply forecast, easing risk Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Tumble as US Weather Forecasts Warm Barchart
- U.S. Natural Gas Falls on Warmer Weather Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures fall more than 8% on milder forecasts Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Retreats on Milder Weather Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.19
Closest Support:
$3.01
5.64% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
29.78% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.22
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-12 23:47:35
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | $3.23 | $1.63 | $4.84 |
| 2026-02-14 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-15 | $3.24 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.24 | $1.64 | $4.84 |
| 2026-02-17 | $3.23 | $1.63 | $4.84 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-02-13), reaching $3.23.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-13 and 2026-02-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~99.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data suggests a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. This indicates potential price stability between these levels.
Despite the bearish overall market sentiment (score: -0.400), the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.43% for the next day, suggesting short-term trading opportunities within the range of 1.63 to 4.84. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the mixed signals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -28.12 BCFD with a change of +10.80, indicating a tightening supply situation that could affect production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output to align with market expectations.
With the bearish sentiment stemming from demand concerns, especially in crude oil, it may be prudent to employ hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. The anticipation of large inventory withdrawals for natural gas could provide a buffer for producers in that sector.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Market conditions suggest potential cost fluctuations for consumers, particularly with the current bearish sentiment affecting crude oil prices. It is essential to monitor the weather forecasts as warmer conditions could lead to reduced demand for natural gas, impacting supply reliability.
Consumers should consider proactive procurement strategies, especially in light of the anticipated large inventory withdrawal for natural gas, which may lead to short-term price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently driven by bearish sentiment across both crude oil and natural gas, with demand concerns weighing heavily on prices. The fundamental balance indicates tightening supply, particularly for natural gas, which could shift market dynamics.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast suggesting a slight upward trend, juxtaposed with the risks posed by geopolitical tensions and demand fluctuations. Understanding these factors will be crucial for forecasting potential market shifts in the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.