Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Fridays close rebounded over the key 3.247 which is a bullish indication.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-13 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has shifted from a state of panic to a more calculated evaluation, with 609 Bcf withdrawn from storage recently, pushing inventories to 6% below average. Production is rebounding, nearing 108 Bcf/d, and rig counts are at a 2.5-year high. However, a potential mild winter looms, which could ease the tightness, especially as demand drops to 124 Bcf/d. LNG exports remain robust at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, but regional oversupply persists. Traders should watch the weather closely, as it could make or break the market's current bullish sentiment.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.2
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.28
MA(20): $4.22
Current Price is 3.2, 9 day MA 3.28, 20 day MA 4.22
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.299
Signal: -0.1468
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.53
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.53 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 113,525
Avg (20d): 231,875
Ratio: 0.49
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 3.02
%D: 2.86
Stochastic %K: 3.02, %D: 2.86. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.58
+DI: 27.22
-DI: 23.37
ADX: 20.58 (+DI: 27.22, -DI: 23.37). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -96.98
Williams %R: -96.98 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.22
Lower: 1.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.22, Lower: 1.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
206.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
141.0 HDD
-56.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | 31.0 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/06 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 22.0 | 29.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/15 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/16 | 20.0 | 28.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/17 | 18.0 | 28.0 | -10.0 |
| 02/18 | 16.0 | 27.0 | -11.0 |
| 02/19 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.88
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
0.06 (0.06%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
20.6
Daily:
-0.22 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
3.24 (18.66%)
GOLD
5063.8
Daily:
140.1 (2.85%)
Weekly:
12.9 (0.26%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
0.02 (0.29%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.64%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,623,408
Change: -32,575
Managed Money
-8,188
Change: -8,141
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
27,616
Change: -8,933
1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
131,826
Change: +4,919
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-163,677
Change: +8,586
-10.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.635 EUR/MWh (+0.163). JKM prices decreased to 11.005 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.630 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.635
+0.163Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-13
JKM Prices
11.005
-0.005Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-13
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.630
-5.41%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.6
10.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.635 |
| APR 26 | 10.875 |
| MAY 26 | 10.592 |
| JUN 26 | 10.478 |
| JUL 26 | 10.470 |
| AUG 26 | 10.486 |
| SEP 26 | 10.618 |
| OCT 26 | 10.683 |
| NOV 26 | 10.795 |
| DEC 26 | 10.887 |
| JAN 27 | 10.930 |
| FEB 27 | 10.890 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.005 |
| APR 26 | 10.465 |
| MAY 26 | 10.300 |
| JUN 26 | 10.345 |
| JUL 26 | 10.545 |
| AUG 26 | 10.635 |
| SEP 26 | 10.540 |
| OCT 26 | 10.620 |
| NOV 26 | 10.650 |
| DEC 26 | 10.885 |
| JAN 27 | 11.055 |
| FEB 27 | 10.965 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.133
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
82
Last Updated:
2026-02-13 23:48:24
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.3
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.2
Closest Support:
$3.01
5.94% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
29.37% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.22
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-13 23:48:25
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.42%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | $3.23 | $1.63 | $4.84 |
| 2026-02-14 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-15 | $3.24 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.24 | $1.64 | $4.84 |
| 2026-02-17 | $3.23 | $1.63 | $4.84 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.42% for the next trading day (2026-02-13), reaching $3.23.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-13 and 2026-02-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~99.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market presents a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.01 and resistance at 4.14. The fundamental balance indicates a deficit of -28.12 BCFD which has increased by +10.80, suggesting tightening supply. The weather outlook points to high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could support prices in the short term. The ML price forecast predicts a modest increase of UP (0.42%) within a range of 1.63 to 4.84. Traders should monitor these dynamics for potential short-term opportunities, especially if prices test the resistance level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD indicates a tightening market, which may warrant adjustments in production planning to capitalize on higher prices. The neutral sentiment regarding hedging strategies should be approached cautiously, as the market sentiment for crude oil remains bearish due to demand concerns. Producers should focus on optimizing operational efficiencies and consider the impact of high heating demand on natural gas prices, as indicated by the positive sentiment towards LNG exports.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The anticipated high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, suggests that consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas pricing. The weather outlook indicates significant heating degree days (HDD), which could lead to increased consumption and higher prices. Additionally, with the fundamental balance showing a deficit, there may be supply reliability risks, prompting consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with a bearish outlook for crude oil driven by demand concerns and geopolitical risks. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply environment, while the weather outlook supports increased heating demand, particularly in colder regions. Analysts should closely monitor these factors as they could shift the market dynamics, potentially leading to bullish movements in natural gas prices due to anticipated inventory withdrawals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.