Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Fridays close rebounded over the key 3.247 which is a bullish indication.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-14 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has shifted from winter panic to a more calculated outlook as recent storage draws hit 609 Bcf, pushing inventories to 2,206 Bcf—6% below average. Production is rebounding to ~108 Bcf/d, while demand is expected to drop from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d with milder weather ahead. Despite a record draw, regional oversupply, highlighted by negative Waha pricing, indicates that tightness is contingent on weather rather than a fundamental scarcity. Keep an eye on LNG exports as they remain a crucial market driver.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.24
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.29
MA(20): $4.23
Current Price is 3.24, 9 day MA 3.29, 20 day MA 4.23
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.2955
Signal: -0.1461
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.99
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.99 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 222,258
Avg (20d): 237,312
Ratio: 0.94
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 3.94
%D: 3.17
Stochastic %K: 3.94, %D: 3.17. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.58
+DI: 27.22
-DI: 23.37
ADX: 20.58 (+DI: 27.22, -DI: 23.37). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -96.06
Williams %R: -96.06 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.23
Lower: 1.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.23, Lower: 1.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
201.0 HDD
-13.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
140.0 HDD
-51.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | 29.0 | 32.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/14 | 22.0 | 29.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/15 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/16 | 19.0 | 28.0 | -9.0 |
| 02/17 | 18.0 | 28.0 | -10.0 |
| 02/18 | 17.0 | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 02/19 | 20.0 | 26.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/20 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.88
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
0.06 (0.06%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
20.6
Daily:
-0.22 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
3.24 (18.66%)
GOLD
5022.0
Daily:
98.3 (2.0%)
Weekly:
-28.9 (-0.57%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
0.02 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-0.15 (-2.57%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,623,408
Change: -32,575
Managed Money
-8,188
Change: -8,141
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
27,616
Change: -8,933
1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
131,826
Change: +4,919
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-163,677
Change: +8,586
-10.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.544 EUR/MWh (-0.091). JKM prices decreased to 10.993 USD/MMBtu (-0.012). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.551 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.544
-0.091Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-14
JKM Prices
10.993
-0.012Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-14
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.551
-4.77%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-14
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.3
10.9
10.5
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.544 |
| APR 26 | 10.791 |
| MAY 26 | 10.507 |
| JUN 26 | 10.382 |
| JUL 26 | 10.365 |
| AUG 26 | 10.393 |
| SEP 26 | 10.526 |
| OCT 26 | 10.573 |
| NOV 26 | 10.688 |
| DEC 26 | 10.759 |
| JAN 27 | 10.813 |
| FEB 27 | 10.776 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 10.993 |
| APR 26 | 10.515 |
| MAY 26 | 10.275 |
| JUN 26 | 10.355 |
| JUL 26 | 10.505 |
| AUG 26 | 10.635 |
| SEP 26 | 10.540 |
| OCT 26 | 10.590 |
| NOV 26 | 10.605 |
| DEC 26 | 10.840 |
| JAN 27 | 10.990 |
| FEB 27 | 10.905 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.45
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
63
Last Updated:
2026-02-14 23:47:40
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.75
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.24
Closest Support:
$3.01
7.1% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
27.78% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.01
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.42
0.618
$5.99
0.786
$6.8
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.24
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-14 23:47:40
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.46%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | $3.26 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-15 | $3.25 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.25 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-17 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-18 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.46% for the next trading day (2026-02-14), reaching $3.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~98.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Given the neutral technical interpretation with a score of 0/5, traders should be cautious about entering new positions. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.01 while resistance is at 4.14. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.46%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. However, the fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD with a recent change of +10.80 indicates increased supply pressure, which could lead to volatility. Traders should monitor these indicators closely for any divergence.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bullish market sentiment, with a sentiment score of +0.483, is a positive sign for producers. However, the fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD suggests that production levels may need to be adjusted to avoid oversupply. Producers should consider hedging strategies against potential price fluctuations, especially with the anticipated high heating demand due to the weather outlook indicating increased heating degree days (HDD). The sentiment surrounding natural gas is particularly strong at +0.750, indicating a favorable outlook for gas producers.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be prepared for potential cost fluctuations due to the current market dynamics. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which may drive up prices. With a fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD, there could be risks to supply reliability, especially if demand exceeds expectations. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging to mitigate these risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently displaying a bullish sentiment, particularly for natural gas and crude oil, despite a neutral technical outlook. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply scenario, which could shift market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the implications of the weather outlook and its impact on demand, as high heating demand is expected. The divergence between technical indicators and market sentiment may present opportunities for further analysis regarding price forecasts and market behavior shifts.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific recommendations.