Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Fridays close rebounded over the key 3.247 which is a bullish indication.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-15 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has shifted from a state of panic to a more measured outlook in just two weeks, marked by a significant 609 Bcf draw from storage, including a record-setting 360 Bcf. Current inventories sit at 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. However, production is rising toward 108 Bcf/d, and with next week's demand forecasted to drop from 141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d, there's a possibility of oversupply, especially if milder winter weather prevails. Watch for LNG flows, as they remain crucial to the market's stability.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.25
MA(20): $4.22
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 3.25, 20 day MA 4.22
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3181
Signal: -0.1805
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.97
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,666
Avg (20d): 230,812
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.35
%D: 2.56
Stochastic %K: 0.35, %D: 2.56. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.44
+DI: 26.39
-DI: 24.08
ADX: 19.44 (+DI: 26.39, -DI: 24.08). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.65
Williams %R: -99.65 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.22
Lower: 1.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.22, Lower: 1.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
197.0 HDD
-16.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
143.0 HDD
-43.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/15 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/16 | 20.0 | 28.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/17 | 19.0 | 28.0 | -9.0 |
| 02/18 | 17.0 | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 02/19 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/20 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/21 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.96
Daily:
0.08 (0.08%)
Weekly:
0.16 (0.16%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
20.6
Daily:
-0.22 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
3.24 (18.66%)
GOLD
4993.5
Daily:
-28.5 (-0.57%)
Weekly:
-10.3 (-0.21%)
COPPER
5.75
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.68%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-2.43%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,623,408
Change: -32,575
Managed Money
-8,188
Change: -8,141
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
27,616
Change: -8,933
1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
131,826
Change: +4,919
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-163,677
Change: +8,586
-10.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.544 EUR/MWh (-0.091). JKM prices decreased to 10.993 USD/MMBtu (-0.012). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.551 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.544
-0.091Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-15
JKM Prices
10.993
-0.012Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-15
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.551
-4.77%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-15
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.3
10.9
10.5
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.544 |
| APR 26 | 10.791 |
| MAY 26 | 10.507 |
| JUN 26 | 10.382 |
| JUL 26 | 10.365 |
| AUG 26 | 10.393 |
| SEP 26 | 10.526 |
| OCT 26 | 10.573 |
| NOV 26 | 10.688 |
| DEC 26 | 10.759 |
| JAN 27 | 10.813 |
| FEB 27 | 10.776 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 10.993 |
| APR 26 | 10.515 |
| MAY 26 | 10.275 |
| JUN 26 | 10.355 |
| JUL 26 | 10.505 |
| AUG 26 | 10.635 |
| SEP 26 | 10.540 |
| OCT 26 | 10.590 |
| NOV 26 | 10.605 |
| DEC 26 | 10.840 |
| JAN 27 | 10.990 |
| FEB 27 | 10.905 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.067
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
46
Last Updated:
2026-02-15 23:47:51
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$3.0
0.66% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
37.09% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$3.0
Support
0.236
$4.14
Resistance
0.382
$4.85
0.5
$5.41
0.618
$5.98
0.786
$6.79
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.14
1.618
$10.81
2.0
$12.65
2.618
$15.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.24
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-15 23:47:51
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.46%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | $3.26 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-15 | $3.25 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.25 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-17 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-18 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.46% for the next trading day (2026-02-14), reaching $3.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~98.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.0 and a resistance level at 4.14. This suggests a potential for price movements within this range.
The fundamental balance is currently at -28.12 BCFD, showing a significant change of +10.80, which could introduce volatility in trading strategies. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.46%, indicating short-term opportunities for traders.
Keep an eye on regional heating demand as the weather outlook indicates high heating demand across all regions except the West, where cooling demand is low. This could lead to price fluctuations based on regional supply and demand dynamics.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD with a change of +10.80 suggests a tightening supply scenario, which may impact production planning. Producers should assess their hedging strategies in light of potential price increases.
With the high heating demand forecasted, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, there may be opportunities to optimize production schedules to meet this demand. However, neutral market sentiment indicates that external factors, such as geopolitical risks, could affect operations.
Monitoring the news sentiment surrounding natural gas is crucial, as it is currently positive, which may support pricing in the short term.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the current weather outlook indicating high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD suggests a tighter supply, which could lead to higher prices.
Given the neutral market sentiment and the slight expected increase in prices, consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that hedge against potential price spikes. The low cooling demand in the West may also influence regional pricing dynamics, which should be factored into procurement decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD, indicating potential tightening in supply. The ML price forecast suggests a modest upward trend, which could be driven by regional heating demand.
Key driving factors include the high heating demand forecasted across the Northeast and Midwest, contrasted with low cooling demand in the West. This divergence could create localized pricing pressures. Additionally, the news sentiment surrounding natural gas remains positive, which may support market stability.
Analysts should continue monitoring geopolitical developments and weather patterns, as these could significantly impact market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.