Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading dropped BIGTIME - all the way to $3 after weather proved to be less impactful short-term and very bearish for the rest of Feb. But I would not count out winter just yet. Technically there are too many gaps up above that need to be filled to 3.449 - so we will rise, however near term a drop to 2.75 could be in the works. Monday trading leads to a gap fill of 3.24
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-16 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has transitioned from panic to pragmatism, with a hefty 609 Bcf drawn from storage in two weeks, pushing inventories 6% below average. However, production is bouncing back to 108 Bcf/d, and rig counts are at a two-year high. Demand is projected to dip from 141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmer weather settles in. Despite recent price drops to four-month lows, regional oversupply persists, evidenced by Waha's negative pricing. The market remains tight due to weather, but a warm trend could quickly shift the storage narrative.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.11
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.26
MA(20): $4.23
Current Price is 3.11, 9 day MA 3.26, 20 day MA 4.23
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3112
Signal: -0.1791
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.72
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 56,681
Avg (20d): 233,162
Ratio: 0.24
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.82
%D: 3.38
Stochastic %K: 2.82, %D: 3.38. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.38
+DI: 26.28
-DI: 24.4
ADX: 19.38 (+DI: 26.28, -DI: 24.4). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.18
Williams %R: -97.18 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.23
Lower: 1.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.23, Lower: 1.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
188.0 HDD
-23.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
147.0 HDD
-35.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | 33.0 | 31.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/09 | 29.0 | 30.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 24.0 | 29.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/16 | 20.0 | 28.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/17 | 19.0 | 28.0 | -9.0 |
| 02/18 | 17.0 | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 02/19 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/20 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/21 | 24.0 | 24.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/22 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.12
Daily:
0.24 (0.25%)
Weekly:
0.32 (0.33%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
21.2
Daily:
0.6 (2.91%)
Weekly:
3.41 (19.17%)
GOLD
4969.4
Daily:
-52.6 (-1.05%)
Weekly:
-34.4 (-0.69%)
COPPER
5.71
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.49%)
Weekly:
-0.19 (-3.22%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,623,408
Change: -32,575
Managed Money
-8,188
Change: -8,141
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
27,616
Change: -8,933
1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
131,826
Change: +4,919
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-163,677
Change: +8,586
-10.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.544 EUR/MWh (-0.091). JKM prices decreased to 10.993 USD/MMBtu (-0.012). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.551 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.544
-0.091Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-16
JKM Prices
10.993
-0.012Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-16
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.551
-4.77%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-16
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.3
10.9
10.5
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.544 |
| APR 26 | 10.791 |
| MAY 26 | 10.507 |
| JUN 26 | 10.382 |
| JUL 26 | 10.365 |
| AUG 26 | 10.393 |
| SEP 26 | 10.526 |
| OCT 26 | 10.573 |
| NOV 26 | 10.688 |
| DEC 26 | 10.759 |
| JAN 27 | 10.813 |
| FEB 27 | 10.776 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 10.993 |
| APR 26 | 10.515 |
| MAY 26 | 10.275 |
| JUN 26 | 10.355 |
| JUL 26 | 10.505 |
| AUG 26 | 10.635 |
| SEP 26 | 10.540 |
| OCT 26 | 10.590 |
| NOV 26 | 10.605 |
| DEC 26 | 10.840 |
| JAN 27 | 10.990 |
| FEB 27 | 10.905 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
40
Last Updated:
2026-02-16 23:47:55
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil on Track for Weekly Loss on Supply Outlook, Easing Iran Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Crude Prices Slip as Geopolitical Risks Ease Barchart
- Oil Moves Lower As Market Weighs Geopolitical Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.11
Closest Support:
$2.97
4.5% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.11
32.15% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.97
Support
0.236
$4.11
Resistance
0.382
$4.82
0.5
$5.4
0.618
$5.97
0.786
$6.79
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.15
1.618
$10.83
2.0
$12.69
2.618
$15.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.24
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-16 23:47:56
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.46%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | $3.26 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-15 | $3.25 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-16 | $3.25 | $1.65 | $4.86 |
| 2026-02-17 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
| 2026-02-18 | $3.25 | $1.64 | $4.85 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.46% for the next trading day (2026-02-14), reaching $3.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~98.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral stance with a Fibonacci support at 2.97 and resistance at 4.11. The fundamental balance is showing a negative trend of -28.12 BCFD, which could indicate potential volatility in the short term.
The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.46%, with a trading range between 1.65 and 4.86. Traders should be cautious of the overall market sentiment score of -0.300, which could lead to short-term price fluctuations.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply-demand dynamic. This may necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price volatility.
The bearish sentiment towards natural gas, with a score of -0.600, suggests that market conditions may not favor aggressive production increases at this time. Monitoring geopolitical developments and weather impacts will be crucial for strategic decision-making.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement due to the negative fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD. The high heating demand expected across regions could lead to increased prices, particularly as heating degree days (HDD) rise significantly.
Given the overall market sentiment, consumers should consider hedging options to manage potential price spikes, especially with the forecasted low cooling demand.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current energy market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment with an overall score of -0.300. Key drivers include a fundamental balance of -28.12 BCFD and a weather outlook that favors high heating demand.
The ML price forecast indicates a potential uptick in prices, but the prevailing market sentiment and geopolitical factors suggest caution. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and weather patterns to forecast future market shifts effectively.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.