Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading dropped BIGTIME - all the way to $3 after weather proved to be less impactful short-term and very bearish for the rest of Feb. But I would not count out winter just yet. Technically there are too many gaps up above that need to be filled to 3.449 - so we will rise, however near term a drop to 2.75 could be in the works. Monday trading leads to a gap fill of 3.24
* Tuesday attempted to fill the gap and we’ll kind of did…but it is still unfinished business with bearish weather testing 3 again
* Wednesday trading was virtually a sideways move testing the $3 boundary - this is a holding pattern before determining a retracement up to 3.247 or drop to 2.75
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-18 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have plummeted to a four-month low, primarily driven by warmer weather and near-record production, with output nearing 108 Bcf/d. Recent storage draws of 609 Bcf have left inventories 6% below average, yet demand is projected to dip next week. Traders are caught in a tug-of-war between bearish weather forecasts and lingering winter demand. As we navigate this volatile landscape, keep an eye on fluctuating weather patterns and regional oversupply, which could shift market dynamics significantly.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.21
MA(20): $4.18
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 3.21, 20 day MA 4.18
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3313
Signal: -0.2105
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.96
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,603
Avg (20d): 214,391
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 3.5
%D: 2.91
Stochastic %K: 3.5, %D: 2.91. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.26
+DI: 26.0
-DI: 24.14
ADX: 18.26 (+DI: 26.0, -DI: 24.14). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -96.5
Williams %R: -96.5 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.96
Middle: 4.18
Lower: 1.39
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.96, Middle: 4.18, Lower: 1.39
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
170.0 HDD
-36.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
170.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 24.0 | 29.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/15 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/18 | 17.0 | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 02/19 | 20.0 | 26.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/20 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/21 | 24.0 | 24.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/22 | 28.0 | 24.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 29.0 | 26.0 | +3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.76
Daily:
0.6 (0.62%)
Weekly:
0.93 (0.96%)
US_10Y
4.08
Daily:
0.03 (0.67%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-2.23%)
SP500
6881.31
Daily:
38.09 (0.56%)
Weekly:
-60.16 (-0.87%)
VIX
19.62
Daily:
-0.67 (-3.3%)
Weekly:
1.97 (11.16%)
GOLD
5000.2
Daily:
117.3 (2.4%)
Weekly:
-71.4 (-1.41%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
0.15 (2.73%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.73%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,623,408
Change: -32,575
Managed Money
-8,188
Change: -8,141
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
27,616
Change: -8,933
1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
131,826
Change: +4,919
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-163,677
Change: +8,586
-10.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.129 EUR/MWh (-0.415). JKM prices remained stable to 10.993 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.136 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.129
-0.415Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-18
JKM Prices
10.993
+0.000Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-18
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.136
-1.22%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
10.9
10.5
10.1
9.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.129 |
| APR 26 | 10.074 |
| MAY 26 | 9.929 |
| JUN 26 | 9.852 |
| JUL 26 | 9.858 |
| AUG 26 | 9.888 |
| SEP 26 | 10.016 |
| OCT 26 | 10.085 |
| NOV 26 | 10.220 |
| DEC 26 | 10.301 |
| JAN 27 | 10.358 |
| FEB 27 | 10.321 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 10.993 |
| APR 26 | 9.960 |
| MAY 26 | 9.860 |
| JUN 26 | 9.930 |
| JUL 26 | 10.090 |
| AUG 26 | 10.175 |
| SEP 26 | 10.085 |
| OCT 26 | 10.175 |
| NOV 26 | 10.205 |
| DEC 26 | 10.430 |
| JAN 27 | 10.595 |
| FEB 27 | 10.485 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.55
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
60
Last Updated:
2026-02-18 23:48:08
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.3
NATURAL_GAS
-0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$2.97
1.66% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.11
36.09% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.97
Support
0.236
$4.11
Resistance
0.382
$4.82
0.5
$5.4
0.618
$5.97
0.786
$6.79
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.15
1.618
$10.83
2.0
$12.69
2.618
$15.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.01
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-18 23:48:09
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | $2.98 | $1.38 | $4.58 |
| 2026-02-20 | $3.0 | $1.4 | $4.6 |
| 2026-02-21 | $3.0 | $1.4 | $4.6 |
| 2026-02-22 | $3.01 | $1.41 | $4.62 |
| 2026-02-23 | $3.01 | $1.41 | $4.62 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.10% for the next trading day (2026-02-19), reaching $2.98.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.0% between 2026-02-19 and 2026-02-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~106.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.550. The technical analysis indicates a neutral outlook with Fibonacci support at 2.97 and resistance at 4.11. Traders should be cautious of the short-term volatility as the ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 1.10%. This creates opportunities to capitalize on price fluctuations within the range of 1.38 to 4.58. Overall, the convergence of bearish sentiment and technical indicators suggests a need for close monitoring of market movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -28.12 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation, albeit with a recent increase of +10.80. Producers should consider this in their production planning and adjust output levels accordingly. The overall market sentiment towards natural gas is concerning, which may impact pricing strategies. Additionally, the news surrounding OPEC+ output increases could further complicate market dynamics. Hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate potential price drops.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather forecast indicating high heating demand (HDD: 19.4) and low cooling demand (CDD: 1.4), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices due to increased demand. The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to lower prices in the short term, but the fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply that may affect long-term procurement strategies. Consumers are advised to consider hedging options to manage price exposure effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a complex interplay of factors. The overall bearish sentiment across both natural gas and crude oil markets is notable, driven by weather patterns and supply dynamics. The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit, yet the market is responding to bearish news sentiment and a forecasted price drop. Analysts should focus on the implications of OPEC+ decisions and the impact of weather on demand as key drivers that could shift market outlooks in the near future.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.