Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading dropped BIGTIME - all the way to $3 after weather proved to be less impactful short-term and very bearish for the rest of Feb. But I would not count out winter just yet. Technically there are too many gaps up above that need to be filled to 3.449 - so we will rise, however near term a drop to 2.75 could be in the works. Monday trading leads to a gap fill of 3.24
* Tuesday attempted to fill the gap and we’ll kind of did…but it is still unfinished business with bearish weather testing 3 again
* Wednesday trading was virtually a sideways move testing the $3 boundary - this is a holding pattern before determining a retracement up to 3.247 or drop to 2.75
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-19 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have plummeted to four-month lows, driven by strong production near 108 Bcf/d and milder weather reducing demand projections from 141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d. Despite a significant 609 Bcf draw from storage, inventories remain about 6% below average, leading to a recalibration of market expectations. With rigs at a 2.5-year high, the market's tightness is artificial, stemming from weather rather than fundamental shortages. Watch for price movements around $3, as traders assess the impact of potential warming trends.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 12.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 28.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.95
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.14
MA(20): $4.08
Current Price is 2.95, 9 day MA 3.14, 20 day MA 4.08
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3449
Signal: -0.2375
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.27
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.27 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,709
Avg (20d): 203,071
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.44
%D: 3.22
Stochastic %K: 2.44, %D: 3.22. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.02
+DI: 25.44
-DI: 24.39
ADX: 17.02 (+DI: 25.44, -DI: 24.39). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.56
Williams %R: -97.56 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.9
Middle: 4.08
Lower: 1.27
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.9, Middle: 4.08, Lower: 1.27
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 113.3 | 114.6 | 112.5 | 109.03 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.0 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 32.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 46.3 | 55.7 | 44.7 | 40.83 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.1 | 7.83 |
| Total Demand | 141.42 | 153.52 | 134.6 | 125.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -28.12 | -38.92 | -22.1 | -16.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
165.0 HDD
-39.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
174.0 HDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | 25.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 24.0 | 29.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/15 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 20.0 | 26.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/20 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 02/21 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 28.0 | 24.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/23 | 29.0 | 25.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/24 | 27.0 | 26.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/25 | 23.0 | 27.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.99
Daily:
0.29 (0.29%)
Weekly:
1.06 (1.09%)
US_10Y
4.07
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.71%)
SP500
6861.89
Daily:
-19.42 (-0.28%)
Weekly:
29.13 (0.43%)
VIX
20.23
Daily:
0.61 (3.11%)
Weekly:
-0.59 (-2.83%)
GOLD
5014.2
Daily:
27.7 (0.56%)
Weekly:
90.5 (1.84%)
COPPER
5.74
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.89%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.5%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,623,408
Change: -32,575
Managed Money
-8,188
Change: -8,141
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
27,616
Change: -8,933
1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
131,826
Change: +4,919
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-163,677
Change: +8,586
-10.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.330 EUR/MWh (+0.201). JKM prices remained stable to 10.993 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.337 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.330
+0.201Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-19
JKM Prices
10.993
+0.000Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-19
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.337
-2.97%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.4
10.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.330 |
| APR 26 | 10.590 |
| MAY 26 | 10.382 |
| JUN 26 | 10.303 |
| JUL 26 | 10.309 |
| AUG 26 | 10.338 |
| SEP 26 | 10.466 |
| OCT 26 | 10.499 |
| NOV 26 | 10.603 |
| DEC 26 | 10.687 |
| JAN 27 | 10.740 |
| FEB 27 | 10.703 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 10.993 |
| APR 26 | 10.395 |
| MAY 26 | 10.225 |
| JUN 26 | 10.325 |
| JUL 26 | 10.510 |
| AUG 26 | 10.590 |
| SEP 26 | 10.500 |
| OCT 26 | 10.555 |
| NOV 26 | 10.575 |
| DEC 26 | 10.805 |
| JAN 27 | 10.990 |
| FEB 27 | 10.880 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.025
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
73
Last Updated:
2026-02-19 23:47:49
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- OPEC+ Expected to Resume Output Increases, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures ease to 4-month low on rising output and smaller-than-usual storage draw Reuters
- TTF Prices Rise on LNG Supply Risks Trading Economics
- US natural gas futures hit four-month low on mild weather, near-record output Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Falling US Supplies Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Jump on Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Falling US Supplies Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Mounting Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Geopolitical Risks and US Economic Strength Boost Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Tech leads US stocks rally; renewed geopolitical strife boosts oil, gold Reuters
Weather (4 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.95
Closest Support:
$2.91
1.36% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.07
37.97% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.91
Support
0.236
$4.07
Resistance
0.382
$4.79
0.5
$5.37
0.618
$5.95
0.786
$6.77
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.16
1.618
$10.87
2.0
$12.74
2.618
$15.78
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.0
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-19 23:47:50
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.63%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | $3.01 | $1.41 | $4.62 |
| 2026-02-21 | $3.02 | $1.42 | $4.62 |
| 2026-02-22 | $3.03 | $1.43 | $4.63 |
| 2026-02-23 | $3.03 | $1.43 | $4.63 |
| 2026-02-24 | $3.03 | $1.43 | $4.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.63% for the next trading day (2026-02-20), reaching $3.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-20 and 2026-02-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~105.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation, with key Fibonacci support at 2.91 and resistance at 4.07. The fundamental balance shows a significant negative shift of -28.12 BCFD, suggesting potential supply pressures.
The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may support prices in the short term. However, with a next day ML price forecast indicating an increase of 0.63%, traders should remain cautious of volatility due to fluctuating demand and supply dynamics.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the fundamental balance showing a negative change, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with current market demands. The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.700, reflects concerns over rising output and mild weather affecting demand.
Producers should also evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, especially given the high heating demand forecasted in key regions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current market dynamics. The high heating demand forecasted, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, could lead to increased prices in the short term. The overall market sentiment remains neutral, but consumers should monitor developments closely, especially with the next day forecast indicating a slight price increase.
It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for these potential price shifts and to evaluate supply reliability risks amidst changing weather patterns.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral technical outlook with significant bearish sentiment in natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates supply pressures, while the weather outlook suggests high heating demand, particularly affecting the Northeast and Midwest regions.
Analysts should note that geopolitical factors are influencing crude oil prices, which are experiencing heightened risks. Overall, the market appears to be at a crossroads, with potential shifts depending on upcoming supply and demand developments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.