Natural gas just went from Arctic panic to actuarial recalculation in about ten trading sessions. We yanked a combined 609 Bcf out of storage in two weeks, including a record -360 Bcf draw followed by -249 Bcf versus a -146 Bcf five-year norm, pushing inventories to roughly 2,206 Bcf, about 6% below average. But production is already rebounding toward ~108 Bcf/d, rigs have climbed to 130 which is a 2.5-year high, and next week’s demand is projected to slide from ~141 Bcf/d to 124 Bcf/d as warmth spreads. LNG is the structural spine at 18.5–19.6 Bcf/d, yet Waha printing negative prices tells you regional oversupply still exists under the hood. So the market isn’t tight by destiny, it’s tight by weather, and if late-season cold fizzles, the storage deficit can evaporate faster than winter bulls would prefer.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading dropped BIGTIME - all the way to $3 after weather proved to be less impactful short-term and very bearish for the rest of Feb. But I would not count out winter just yet. Technically there are too many gaps up above that need to be filled to 3.449 - so we will rise, however near term a drop to 2.75 could be in the works. Monday trading leads to a gap fill of 3.24
* Tuesday attempted to fill the gap and we’ll kind of did…but it is still unfinished business with bearish weather testing 3 again
* Wednesday trading was virtually a sideways move testing the $3 boundary - this is a holding pattern before determining a retracement up to 3.247 or drop to 2.75
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-20 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have shifted from panic to recalibration, driven by significant storage draws of 609 Bcf in just two weeks, leading inventories to 6% below average. Production is rebounding to ~108 Bcf/d, but upcoming demand is expected to dip as warmer weather spreads. Despite recent gains due to colder forecasts, regional oversupply persists, evidenced by negative prices at Waha. As winter's grip loosens, watch for potential volatility; if demand falters, the storage deficit could vanish faster than expected.
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**Key Developments & Statistics**
- Recent draws: 609 Bcf in two weeks; record -360 Bcf followed by -249 Bcf.
- Current inventories: ~2,206 Bcf
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 17.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.99
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.98
Current Price is 2.99, 9 day MA 3.1, 20 day MA 3.98
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3444
Signal: -0.2583
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.72
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 123,171
Avg (20d): 199,571
Ratio: 0.62
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 10.06
%D: 6.97
Stochastic %K: 10.06, %D: 6.97. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.04
+DI: 25.24
-DI: 24.27
ADX: 16.04 (+DI: 25.24, -DI: 24.27). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -89.94
Williams %R: -89.94 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.79
Middle: 3.98
Lower: 1.17
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.79, Middle: 3.98, Lower: 1.17
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.1 | 103.9 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.3 | 111.5 | 108.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 25.07 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.5 | 38.0 | 35.4 | 32.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 38.8 | 46.3 | 53.5 | 39.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 130.52 | 141.42 | 146.5 | 125.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -17.12 | -28.12 | -35.0 | -16.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
160.0 HDD
-41.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
174.0 HDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12 | 26.0 | 30.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/13 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/14 | 24.0 | 29.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/15 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/18 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/20 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/21 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 28.0 | 24.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/23 | 29.0 | 25.0 | +4.0 |
| 02/24 | 27.0 | 26.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/25 | 22.0 | 27.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/26 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.79
Daily:
-0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
0.91 (0.94%)
US_10Y
4.09
Daily:
0.01 (0.27%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.74%)
SP500
6909.51
Daily:
47.62 (0.69%)
Weekly:
73.34 (1.07%)
VIX
19.09
Daily:
-1.14 (-5.64%)
Weekly:
-1.51 (-7.33%)
GOLD
5130.0
Daily:
154.1 (3.1%)
Weekly:
108.0 (2.15%)
COPPER
5.87
Daily:
0.14 (2.44%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.34%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,556
Change: -9,852
Managed Money
-26,765
Change: -18,577
-1.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
35,694
Change: +8,078
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,104
Change: +7,278
8.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-159,047
Change: +4,630
-9.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: +16,955
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.525 EUR/MWh (+0.195). JKM prices increased to 10.780 USD/MMBtu (+0.385). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.745 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.525
+0.195Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-20
JKM Prices
10.780
+0.385Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-20
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.745
-6.46%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.4
11.2
10.9
10.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.525 |
| APR 26 | 11.358 |
| MAY 26 | 11.074 |
| JUN 26 | 10.971 |
| JUL 26 | 10.957 |
| AUG 26 | 10.975 |
| SEP 26 | 11.104 |
| OCT 26 | 11.150 |
| NOV 26 | 11.245 |
| DEC 26 | 11.324 |
| JAN 27 | 11.380 |
| FEB 27 | 11.314 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.780 |
| MAY 26 | 10.855 |
| JUN 26 | 10.970 |
| JUL 26 | 11.085 |
| AUG 26 | 11.170 |
| SEP 26 | 11.090 |
| OCT 26 | 11.150 |
| NOV 26 | 11.115 |
| DEC 26 | 11.370 |
| JAN 27 | 11.505 |
| FEB 27 | 11.390 |
| MAR 27 | 10.775 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
84
Last Updated:
2026-02-20 23:47:51
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Geopolitics Vs. Oversupply Keeps Oil Prices Volatile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas prices hold near 4-month low on rising output, ample fuel in storage Reuters
- US natgas futures ease to 4-month low on rising output and smaller-than-usual storage draw Reuters
- TTF Prices Rise on LNG Supply Risks Trading Economics
- US natural gas futures hit four-month low on mild weather, near-record output Reuters
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (3 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Falling US Supplies Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Jump on Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Falling US Supplies Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Mounting Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Geopolitical Risks and US Economic Strength Boost Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Tech leads US stocks rally; renewed geopolitical strife boosts oil, gold Reuters
Weather (5 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Climb on Colder US Weather Forecasts Barchart
- US natgas futures up 2% on cooler weather ahead of storage report Reuters
- US natural gas futures hit four-month low on mild weather, near-record output Reuters
- Warmer US Weather Weighs on Nat-Gas Demand and Prices Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Slump on Warmer US Weather Forecasts Barchart
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.99
Closest Support:
$2.91
2.68% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.07
36.12% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.91
Support
0.236
$4.07
Resistance
0.382
$4.79
0.5
$5.37
0.618
$5.95
0.786
$6.77
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.16
1.618
$10.87
2.0
$12.74
2.618
$15.78
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.0
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-20 23:47:52
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.62%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | $3.01 | $1.41 | $4.62 |
| 2026-02-21 | $3.02 | $1.42 | $4.62 |
| 2026-02-22 | $3.03 | $1.43 | $4.63 |
| 2026-02-23 | $3.03 | $1.43 | $4.63 |
| 2026-02-24 | $3.03 | $1.43 | $4.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.62% for the next trading day (2026-02-20), reaching $3.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-20 and 2026-02-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~105.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions reflect a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 2.91 and resistance at 4.07. The fundamental balance indicates a bearish shift with a -17.12 BCFD figure, suggesting increased supply pressures. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may create short-term price volatility. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.62%, indicating potential trading opportunities, but caution is advised due to overall bearish news sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment is leaning bearish, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.600. Producers should consider this in their hedging strategies, as the fundamental balance shows a significant increase in supply. The rising output and ample storage could impact pricing negatively, necessitating a review of production planning to align with anticipated demand fluctuations driven by high heating needs. Additionally, the geopolitical risks surrounding crude oil prices should be monitored closely, as they may affect overall market dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected due to the current weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The bearish sentiment in the market, especially with a sentiment score of -0.333, indicates that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability. The fundamental balance indicates a significant change, which could lead to price volatility, making it crucial for consumers to consider hedging options to manage costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a convergence of factors driving a bearish sentiment overall. The technical indicators show neutrality, but the fundamental balance is notably negative, indicating an increase in supply. Weather patterns suggest high heating demand, particularly in colder regions, which could temporarily support prices. However, the prevailing bearish news sentiment, especially concerning natural gas and crude oil, indicates potential for downward pressure on prices. Analysts should closely monitor these dynamics for potential shifts in outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.