Natural gas is currently trading like a market that got punched in January and is now pretending it didn’t hurt. We ripped to 3-year highs on freeze-offs that knocked roughly 50 Bcf/d offline at peak, demand surged toward 129 Bcf/d, and traders rediscovered what physical tightness feels like. Fast forward to today and March settled at $3.047, up 1.7% on a cold Midwest forecast. The drama has cooled, but the memory hasn’t. Now we’re grinding.
Fundamentally, production is doing its best impression of invincibility. Lower-48 output is printing anywhere from 108.7 to 113.4 Bcf/d depending on whose tape you watch, which is basically record-adjacent. The EIA just raised its 2026 production forecast to 109.97 Bcf/d. Gas rigs sit at 133, a 2.5-year high, up sharply from last year’s 94. That is not a supply base that’s afraid of $3 gas.
Demand, however, is not showing up to the party with the same enthusiasm. Lower-48 consumption was 91.6 Bcf/d, down 30% year over year on the latest read. Electricity output slipped 1.6% y/y last week. Yes, LNG is steady at 18.6 to 19.8 Bcf/d, which is the structural backbone of this market. But LNG alone cannot carry the weight of a soft weather regime and elevated production.
Storage tells the more nuanced story. The latest EIA withdrawal was 144 Bcf versus a 5-year average of 151 Bcf and 149 Bcf consensus. Inventories are 5.6% below the 5-year average and 1.5% below last year. That is tight enough to prevent collapse, but not tight enough to justify panic premiums. The contrarian twist is that analysts expect much of this deficit to narrow by early March if mild weather persists. In other words, winter is running out of calendar.
Technically, the tape resembles a slow grind near support. Every bounce above $3.10 to $3.20 struggles to gain follow-through unless the weather models deliver multiple cold cycles in a row. Momentum cooled after the late-January spike and we have shifted into range compression behavior. This is no longer a vertical market. It is a negotiation between support stability and upside exhaustion.
The bigger picture is this: resilient supply versus a shrinking weather window. If production holds north of 109 Bcf/d and withdrawals continue to underperform the 5-year average, sub-$3 pressure becomes realistic. But if we see sustained cold that sticks for more than a couple model runs, late-season short covering could re-ignite volatility. The market is not broken. It is simply waiting for proof. And natural gas does not reward hope, it rewards data.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-22 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a market landscape that feels like a casual stroll through a winter wonderland—except there’s no snow, just a whole lot of supply. After peaking at 3-year highs due to freeze-offs, prices have settled around $3.05, with production hitting record levels of 109-113 Bcf/d. However, demand is lagging at 91.6 Bcf/d, down 30% year-over-year. As storage levels remain tight but not panicked, the market is in a delicate balance, needing colder weather to spark any real excitement. Watch for sustained cold snaps—without them, prices could slip below $3.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 17.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.09
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.87
Current Price is 3.09, 9 day MA 3.1, 20 day MA 3.87
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3323
Signal: -0.2724
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.19
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,882
Avg (20d): 194,575
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 22.66
%D: 14.31
Stochastic %K: 22.66, %D: 14.31. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.48
+DI: 25.55
-DI: 23.01
ADX: 15.48 (+DI: 25.55, -DI: 23.01). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -77.34
Williams %R: -77.34 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.64
Middle: 3.87
Lower: 1.1
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.64, Middle: 3.87, Lower: 1.1
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.1 | 103.9 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.3 | 111.5 | 108.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 25.07 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.5 | 38.0 | 35.4 | 32.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 38.8 | 46.3 | 53.5 | 39.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 130.52 | 141.42 | 146.5 | 125.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -17.12 | -28.12 | -35.0 | -16.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
154.0 HDD
-37.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
169.0 HDD
-12.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/14 | 24.0 | 29.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/15 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/18 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/19 | 21.0 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/22 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 22.0 | 27.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 20.0 | 26.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.48
Daily:
-0.32 (-0.33%)
Weekly:
0.32 (0.33%)
US_10Y
4.09
Daily:
0.01 (0.27%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.74%)
SP500
6909.51
Daily:
47.62 (0.69%)
Weekly:
73.34 (1.07%)
VIX
19.09
Daily:
-1.14 (-5.64%)
Weekly:
-1.51 (-7.33%)
GOLD
5180.0
Daily:
120.7 (2.39%)
Weekly:
297.1 (6.08%)
COPPER
5.83
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.08%)
Weekly:
0.19 (3.44%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,556
Change: -9,852
Managed Money
-26,765
Change: -18,577
-1.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
35,694
Change: +8,078
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,104
Change: +7,278
8.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-159,047
Change: +4,630
-9.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: +16,955
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.403 EUR/MWh (-0.122). JKM prices decreased to 10.660 USD/MMBtu (-0.120). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.743 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.403
-0.122Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-22
JKM Prices
10.660
-0.120Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-22
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.743
-6.52%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-22
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.403 |
| APR 26 | 10.908 |
| MAY 26 | 10.702 |
| JUN 26 | 10.592 |
| JUL 26 | 10.587 |
| AUG 26 | 10.624 |
| SEP 26 | 10.775 |
| OCT 26 | 10.835 |
| NOV 26 | 10.948 |
| DEC 26 | 11.028 |
| JAN 27 | 11.070 |
| FEB 27 | 11.014 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.660 |
| MAY 26 | 10.395 |
| JUN 26 | 10.510 |
| JUL 26 | 10.650 |
| AUG 26 | 10.755 |
| SEP 26 | 10.675 |
| OCT 26 | 10.765 |
| NOV 26 | 10.775 |
| DEC 26 | 11.015 |
| JAN 27 | 11.130 |
| FEB 27 | 11.050 |
| MAR 27 | 10.425 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.133
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
49
Last Updated:
2026-02-22 23:48:06
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.3
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (4 articles)
- US natgas prices hold near 4-month low on rising output, ample fuel in storage Reuters
- US natgas futures ease to 4-month low on rising output and smaller-than-usual storage draw Reuters
- US natgas futures up 2% on cooler weather ahead of storage report Reuters
- Spare Pipelines Wouldn't Shield Global Oil from Hormuz Disruption, Saxo Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.09
Closest Support:
$2.92
5.5% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.08
32.04% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.92
Support
0.236
$4.08
Resistance
0.382
$4.8
0.5
$5.37
0.618
$5.95
0.786
$6.78
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.16
1.618
$10.86
2.0
$12.73
2.618
$15.76
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.05
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-22 23:48:06
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.0%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | $3.05 | $1.45 | $4.64 |
| 2026-02-22 | $3.07 | $1.47 | $4.66 |
| 2026-02-23 | $3.06 | $1.46 | $4.66 |
| 2026-02-24 | $3.06 | $1.47 | $4.66 |
| 2026-02-25 | $3.06 | $1.46 | $4.66 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2026-02-21), reaching $3.05.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-21 and 2026-02-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~104.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.92, while resistance is noted at 4.08. With the fundamental balance at -17.12 BCFD, indicating increased supply, traders should be cautious of potential price declines.
The ML price forecast for the next day indicates a slight downward movement (0.00%) within the range of 1.45 to 4.64. This presents a risk of volatility in the short term, particularly as heating demand remains high against a backdrop of rising output.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should note the bearish market sentiment reflected in the current fundamental balance of -17.12 BCFD, indicating increased supply levels. This may necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses from price declines.
The high heating demand forecasted, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, could provide opportunities for targeted production increases in those regions. However, the overall sentiment indicates a need for caution in investment and expansion plans.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish and the fundamental balance is negative. With expected high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, procurement strategies should consider securing supplies ahead of anticipated price movements.
The weather outlook indicates a strong heating demand, which could lead to increased prices during peak demand periods. Consumers may benefit from hedging strategies to lock in current prices and manage future costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment with key indicators pointing towards oversupply. The fundamental balance of -17.12 BCFD and the ML price forecast suggest a potential for downward price pressure in the near term.
High heating demand, as indicated by the weather outlook, contrasts with the overall supply situation, creating a complex market dynamic. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and production adjustments closely, as these factors could shift sentiment and market conditions significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.