Supply is robust, with Lower-48 production nearing record highs (108.7 to 113.4 Bcf/d) and the gas rig count at a 2.5-year high (133). This supply base is unfazed by $3 gas. However, demand is soft, with Lower-48 consumption down 30% year-over-year. While LNG remains a steady structural backbone (18.6 to 19.8 Bcf/d), it cannot offset mild weather and high production. Storage is tight but improving. The latest EIA withdrawal (144 Bcf) underperformed the 5-year average (151 Bcf), leaving inventories 5.6% below average. Analysts anticipate this deficit will narrow if mild weather persists as winter ends. Technically, the market shows range compression, struggling to hold above $3.10-$3.20 without sustained cold. The bigger picture pits resilient supply against a shrinking weather window. Production holding above 109 Bcf/d, coupled with below-average withdrawals, suggests sub-$3 pressure is possible. However, sustained late-season cold could re-ignite volatility. The market awaits data, not hope.
* Monday’s trading dropped all the way down to $3.00 leaving 3.247 and 3.127 back in the rear view - but leaving it wide open for a return as the drop below $3 was not pronounced….so more of a holding pattern.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are currently in a tug-of-war between robust supply and soft demand. With Lower-48 production nearing record highs at 109 Bcf/d and a high rig count of 133, the supply side remains unfazed by prices around $3. However, year-over-year consumption has plummeted by 30%, and mild weather has limited demand. Recent data showed a tight storage situation improving, but below-average withdrawals keep pressure on prices. Watch for any late-season cold snaps that could shake things up!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 17.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.91
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.08
MA(20): $3.87
Current Price is 2.91, 9 day MA 3.08, 20 day MA 3.87
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3463
Signal: -0.2752
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.04
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.04 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,243
Avg (20d): 192,805
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.84
%D: 7.37
Stochastic %K: 1.84, %D: 7.37. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.37
+DI: 25.38
-DI: 23.61
ADX: 15.37 (+DI: 25.38, -DI: 23.61). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.16
Williams %R: -98.16 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.65
Middle: 3.87
Lower: 1.08
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.65, Middle: 3.87, Lower: 1.08
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.1 | 103.9 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.3 | 111.5 | 108.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 25.07 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.5 | 38.0 | 35.4 | 32.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 38.8 | 46.3 | 53.5 | 39.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 130.52 | 141.42 | 146.5 | 125.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -17.12 | -28.12 | -35.0 | -16.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
156.0 HDD
-30.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
163.0 HDD
-19.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/15 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/18 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/19 | 21.0 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 23.0 | 27.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 20.0 | 26.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.9
Daily:
0.1 (0.1%)
Weekly:
0.74 (0.76%)
US_10Y
4.03
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.4%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.57%)
SP500
6837.75
Daily:
-71.76 (-1.04%)
Weekly:
-5.47 (-0.08%)
VIX
21.01
Daily:
1.92 (10.06%)
Weekly:
0.72 (3.55%)
GOLD
5187.4
Daily:
128.1 (2.53%)
Weekly:
304.5 (6.24%)
COPPER
5.88
Daily:
0.05 (0.77%)
Weekly:
0.24 (4.31%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,556
Change: -9,852
Managed Money
-26,765
Change: -18,577
-1.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
35,694
Change: +8,078
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,104
Change: +7,278
8.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-159,047
Change: +4,630
-9.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: +16,955
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.403 EUR/MWh (-0.122). JKM prices decreased to 10.660 USD/MMBtu (-0.120). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.743 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.403
-0.122Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-23
JKM Prices
10.660
-0.120Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-23
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.743
-6.52%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.403 |
| APR 26 | 10.908 |
| MAY 26 | 10.702 |
| JUN 26 | 10.592 |
| JUL 26 | 10.587 |
| AUG 26 | 10.624 |
| SEP 26 | 10.775 |
| OCT 26 | 10.835 |
| NOV 26 | 10.948 |
| DEC 26 | 11.028 |
| JAN 27 | 11.070 |
| FEB 27 | 11.014 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.660 |
| MAY 26 | 10.395 |
| JUN 26 | 10.510 |
| JUL 26 | 10.650 |
| AUG 26 | 10.755 |
| SEP 26 | 10.675 |
| OCT 26 | 10.765 |
| NOV 26 | 10.775 |
| DEC 26 | 11.015 |
| JAN 27 | 11.130 |
| FEB 27 | 11.050 |
| MAR 27 | 10.425 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
46
Last Updated:
2026-02-23 23:47:53
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.3
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (4 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.91
Closest Support:
$2.9
0.34% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.06
39.52% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.9
Support
0.236
$4.06
Resistance
0.382
$4.78
0.5
$5.36
0.618
$5.94
0.786
$6.77
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.17
1.618
$10.87
2.0
$12.75
2.618
$15.8
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.98
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-23 23:47:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.81%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | $3.01 | $1.41 | $4.61 |
| 2026-02-25 | $2.99 | $1.4 | $4.59 |
| 2026-02-26 | $3.0 | $1.41 | $4.6 |
| 2026-02-27 | $3.0 | $1.4 | $4.6 |
| 2026-02-28 | $3.0 | $1.41 | $4.6 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.81% for the next trading day (2026-02-24), reaching $3.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-24 and 2026-02-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~106.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.9 while resistance is at 4.06. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.81%, indicating potential short-term opportunities for traders, albeit within a constrained range of 1.41 to 4.61. Traders should monitor the high volatility anticipated due to the bearish sentiment and the potential for price fluctuations driven by weather impacts and supply/demand dynamics.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance shows a negative balance of -17.12 BCFD, which has increased by +11.00. This indicates rising production levels amidst a bearish market sentiment, which could affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, especially given the bearish news sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas. Monitoring regional heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, may present opportunities to optimize production schedules to meet this demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a forecast of high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The current bearish sentiment and negative fundamental balance could lead to supply reliability risks, particularly if production does not meet the heating demand in colder regions. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that include hedging against price volatility in the coming weeks, especially given the expected high heating demand.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment across major commodities, with a technical interpretation leaning towards bearishness. The fundamental balance reflects an increasing supply against a backdrop of rising prices, particularly for natural gas. Analysts should focus on the convergence of weather patterns and machine learning forecasts that suggest short-term price fluctuations. The geopolitical risks associated with crude oil prices further complicate the outlook, necessitating continuous monitoring of supply/demand dynamics and external factors affecting the market.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.